EPAC: INVEST 96E

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 96, 2020070506, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1150W, 20, 1009, DB,

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962020 07/05/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 32 35 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 26
V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 32 35 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 26
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 11 10 2 7 9 10 15 18 14 16 13 12 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 4 0 1 0 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 42 17 25 37 38 30 219 231 211 184 210 229 218 224 214 200 209
SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.3 26.3 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.3 24.2 25.1 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 146 143 135 133 136 135 125 109 110 111 115 104 114 121
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 59 61 62 65 67 70 66 63 59 56 52 55 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 39 37 39 29 39 40 47 57 67 57 77 54 59 37 45
200 MB DIV 35 41 44 55 40 14 48 64 67 90 56 35 42 14 9 18 10
700-850 TADV -7 -6 -1 0 -6 -6 -1 -4 -6 3 3 6 5 2 5 3 -2
LAND (KM) 1091 1121 1137 1143 1155 1198 1238 1276 1307 1352 1453 1571 1665 1791 1930 2101 2251
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.9 116.6 117.1 117.5 118.4 119.3 120.3 121.2 122.2 123.7 125.5 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 24 15 14 13 12 6 5 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 115.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 5.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[aspen]

The latest GFS runs have been more aggressive with 95E and show a moderate TS. The 06z run is particularly interesting, because it keeps 96E around long enough to engage in a Fujiwhara interaction with the 20/80 AOI before being absorbed by the larger cyclone.

[Yellow Evan]

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962020 07/05/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 30 35 38 42 42 41 39 36 34 32 31
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 30 35 38 42 42 41 39 36 34 32 31
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 5 2 9 12 7 5 1 6 10 14 15 9 9 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 2 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 2
SHEAR DIR 31 22 42 43 130 181 186 167 108 141 239 234 228 238 251 267 338
SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.2 26.6 26.1 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.9 24.0 23.1 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 145 145 143 143 134 129 124 111 108 104 102 103 94 105
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 63 66 70 70 68 65 62 57 55 46 43 37 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 8 8 6 15 25 32 28 40 49 34 49 50 33 -15 -1
200 MB DIV 17 31 27 10 -4 -5 28 59 66 55 53 16 24 -9 0 -31 -21
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -4 -2 2 12 8 13 8 9 5
LAND (KM) 1015 1022 1022 1013 1030 1045 1072 1121 1169 1229 1350 1461 1589 1760 1964 2137 1889
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.6 18.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.4 114.8 115.0 115.3 116.0 116.8 117.8 119.2 120.9 122.8 125.0 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 58 39 24 19 16 12 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 22. 21. 19. 16. 14. 12. 11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 113.8

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 5.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 3.2% 7.1% 11.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.7%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. The thunderstorm activity has become less
concentrated since yesterday, and any development of this system
should be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be
slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962020 07/05/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 29 32 32 30 27 24 24 24 25
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 29 32 32 30 27 24 24 24 25
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 1 4 8 12 10 10 4 5 15 17 9 6 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 2 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 4 2 1 1 1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 31 30 360 291 213 187 191 193 202 214 242 204 231 230 208 233 351
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.8 26.1 26.1 25.2 24.4 24.5 24.2 23.5 23.8 23.4 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 142 140 139 130 123 124 115 107 108 105 97 101 97 107
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 63 64 70 68 69 64 64 60 57 49 43 38 37 36
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 14 13 16 35 29 29 35 56 60 55 57 36 5 0 -11
200 MB DIV 35 28 5 -12 -6 9 43 52 62 54 42 35 1 -8 1 -37 -31
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 1 -4 0 9 8 10 12 7 7
LAND (KM) 983 988 985 1014 1029 1063 1113 1162 1222 1340 1484 1580 1712 1851 2054 2045 1797
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.7 115.0 115.5 115.9 116.8 117.8 119.1 120.6 122.5 124.6 126.6 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 14
HEAT CONTENT 39 22 15 11 10 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 27. 25. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 4. 4. 4. 5.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 114.2

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 12.6% 8.4% 4.1% 1.0% 5.4% 0.6% 1.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 4.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during
the next day or two while it moves slowly westward. After that
time, further development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Suddenly near colder water.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962020 07/06/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 10 13 22 26 20 17 13 13 10 3 6 7 4 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -5 -7 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 37 313 255 239 239 221 213 200 205 203 213 213 187 120 145 175 208
SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.9 25.5 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.6 24.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 25.7 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 125 125 128 131 117 108 109 114 118 111 119 116 113 122 124
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4
700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 64 66 67 69 65 60 55 53 50 51 47 46 40 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 34 34 28 47 54 70 72 66 69 57 55 13 6 -5 0
200 MB DIV -7 22 25 19 30 75 87 71 65 32 38 15 8 1 -26 -38 -47
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 3 1 3 5 3 6 3 6 3 2 6
LAND (KM) 1092 1144 1183 1220 1256 1321 1422 1518 1620 1704 1811 1970 2168 2124 1884 1599 1291
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.3 120.0 121.4 122.9 124.3 125.6 127.0 128.4 130.3 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 16
HEAT CONTENT 7 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -4.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 117.2

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##