ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2020080200, , BEST, 0, 170N, 560W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al752020 to al942020

Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121072&p=2825240#p2825240

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have slowly become
better organized throughout the day. Although the disturbance does
not appear to be very well defined at the surface at this time,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
additional development for the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to
turn northwestward and then northward over the western Atlantic,
passing north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

The global models and EPS/GEFS members keep this very weak, but the SHIPS guidance suggests a favorable environment. It is a rather small disturbance so perhaps the models are not resolving it well (and global models have had issues this year). NHC seems fairly confident in development so it will be interesting to see what happens.

[Nimbus]

Would there be time for ridging to build back in after Isaias if this did develop?

[floridasun78]

nhc have going north maybe only bermuda will need watch it

[skillz305]

Saw on a video this might just be a threat to Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Convection building near the weak low.

[Hurricane Mike]

Hopefully it stays away from land, but I think Bermuda needs to keep an eye on.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have changed little
in organization this morning. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for additional development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the
week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward and then
northward over the western Atlantic, passing north of the Leeward
Islands on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

Would there be time for ridging to build back in after Isaias if this did develop?

No, there’s a split in the Bermuda ridge regardless.

[NDG]

Models this morning showing it get stuck within the Bermuda ridge and meander around for a few days between Bermuda and the eastern US.

[Kat5]

The Carolinas and north should really keep an eye on this one, especially if an omega block sets up.

[Kazmit]

Why is this not on Tropical Tidbits?

[Do_For_Love]

Why is this not on Tropical Tidbits?

It's on there for me under the drop down menu

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands are slowly
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for additional development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. This
system is forecast to move northwestward over the western Atlantic
early this week, passing north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Already north of Leewards in latitud.

AL, 94, 2020080218, , BEST, 0, 198N, 596W, 30, 1012, DB

[cainjamin]

Looking good this afternoon. Looks like it will have some shear and dry mid-level air to deal with over the next few days, but more likely than not we'll see a TD out of this. Interestingly, the GFS, CMC and Euro all trap this under the ridge and meander it between the East Coast and Bermuda until it eventually dissipates. We'll have to watch and see what happens over the next few model runs.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is located about 300 miles north-northeast
of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the trough has decreased during the past few hours and the
system does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at
this time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow
some slow development of the system to occur during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the
week. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the western
Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest or
west-southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

A surface trough of low pressure, located a few hundred miles north
of the northern Leeward Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental conditions could allow
for some slow development of this system during the next several
days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week.
This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over
the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday, and then stall
several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[AnnularCane]

I read that some of the models had this stalling but now they're mentioning it in the outlooks. This could be...interesting. Like Felix 1995?

[alan1961]

Circulation has outrun the convection.