ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[LarryWx]

Again, the Euro (18Z) has very little. What is does have, a very weak sfc low, goes to just offshore SC but it then stalls just offshore:

[LarryWx]

Only one sub 1004 mb member on the Happy Hour EPS and it goes westward into N FL. This run is much quieter than 24 hours ago, when FL had several members hitting with a sub 1004 TC and even a couple that were sub 1000.

[CrazyC83]

Only one sub 1004 mb member on the Happy Hour EPS and it goes westward into N FL. This run is much quieter than 24 hours ago, when FL had several members hitting with a sub 1004 TC and even a couple that were sub 1000.

ICON is now running. It's the only model that has consistently developed this.

[LarryWx]

Only one sub 1004 mb member on the Happy Hour EPS and it goes westward into N FL. This run is much quieter than 24 hours ago, when FL had several members hitting with a sub 1004 TC and even a couple that were sub 1000.

ICON is now running. It's the only model that has consistently developed this.

Good news is that the 0Z ICON is faster and weaker as it goes into NC.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET says nada:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 67.5W


ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND

VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2020 0 29.4N 67.5W 1010 20

1200UTC 08.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS PARA



12z

[floridasun78]

18z GFS PARA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090818/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_26.png

12z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090812/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_15.png

nhc have it going to nw toward north carolina

[sma10]

18z GFS PARA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090818/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_26.png

12z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090812/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_15.png

I think the para is tracking the other area just SE of 94L as its own separate entity

[northjaxpro]

18z GFS PARA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090818/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_26.png

12z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090812/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_15.png

I think the para is tracking the other area just SE of 94L as its own separate entity

It indeed is. It tracks that area west and develops it into a rather decent vort on the East Central Florida Coast by Friday evening.

[floridasun78]

i think we should keep this topic about 94l so people wont get confused we should have other topic about the area south of 94l

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS PARA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090818/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_26.png

12z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090812/gfsp_z850_vort_watl_15.png

I think the para is tracking the other area just SE of 94L as its own separate entity

It indeed is. It tracks that area west and develops it into a rather decent vort on the East Central Florida Coast by Friday evening.

it is still the same trough as 94L. the vort on the north side could refrom down into the convection. it not two seperate things.

[northjaxpro]

i think we should keep this topic about 94l so people wont get confused we should have other topic about the area south of 94l

Well, iti is not much left of 94L but an exposed swirl currently. There is nothing tonight being generated convecton-wise with it. All of the energy is seemingly with the disturbed area to south-southeast. Maybe the GFS-Para just may be onto something ..


I can't see Recon flying out there unless they check out the area farther southeast.

[northjaxpro]

I think the para is tracking the other area just SE of 94L as its own separate entity

94L overall was an elongated area of vorticity, but the southern/southeast end of it has the main energy as I am looking it. Nothing on the northwest side. If they are going to send Recon out, they should check out the southern side tomorrow.

No it's not two separare entities. That is correct Aric. The previous poster misinterpreted that earlier which I missed. Been a long dayfor this old soul...

[USTropics]

94L overall was an elongated area of vorticity, but the southern/southeast end of it has the main energy as I am looking it. Nothing on the northwest side. If they are going to send Recon out, they should check out the southern side tomorrow.

No it's not two separare entities. That is correct Aric. The previous poster misinterpreted that earlier which I missed. Been a long dayfor this old soul...

Same trough, really this is the mid-level energy associated with the trough currently to the SE. The weak low-level reflection (purple) should continue towards the Carolinas with minimal development. The mid-level energy (blue) will be heading towards Florida and has a higher likelihood of developing imo (with a more suitable moisture envelope to work with). Time is the biggest detriment, we'll see how things play out though.

[northjaxpro]

94L overall was an elongated area of vorticity, but the southern/southeast end of it has the main energy as I am looking it. Nothing on the northwest side. If they are going to send Recon out, they should check out the southern side tomorrow.

No it's not two separare entities. That is correct Aric. The previous poster misinterpreted that earlier which I missed. Been a long dayfor this old soul...

Same trough, really this is the mid-level energy associated with the trough currently to the SE. The weak low-level reflection (purple) should continue towards the Carolinas with minimal development. The mid-level energy (blue) will be heading towards Florida and has a higher likelihood of developing imo (with a more suitable moisture envelope to work with). Time is the biggest detriment, we'll see how things play out though.

https://i.imgur.com/nuYOsxz.png

U.S. Tropics, beautifully explained. They still have Recon scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, and it will be interesting to see if they check out this area to the southeast. I hope they will.

[Aric Dunn]

oddly enough.. the almost all the energy now crosses florida and tries to develop in the gulf on the ICON and 00z Euro..

[LarryWx]

The ICON has backed way down on the strength. If this ends up being very weak when it is near NC like the latest run shows, this imho will mean a rather poor showing overall for the ICON as it had been pretty much the lone operational giving NC a rather potent LLC on a consistent basis. Let’s see whether 94L ends up doing much though as convection has finally been persisting over the LLC for a good number of hours for the first time since it was SE of Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

The ICON has backed way down on the strength. If this ends up being very weak when it is near NC like the latest run shows, this imho will mean a rather poor showing overall for the ICON as it had been pretty much the lone operational giving NC a rather potent LLC on a consistent basis. Let’s see whether 94L ends up doing much though as convection has finally been persisting over the LLC for a good number of hours for the first time since it was SE of Bermuda.

Confirmed: poor performance for Invest 94L by ICON.