ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

one 40kt and several 35kt wind barbs.

[eastcoastFL]

There's no well-defined LLC at present, and it'll be running into 30-50 kts of shear for the next 5-6 days. Development chances really go up next Tue/Wed when it reaches the western Caribbean. Not much before then. I'd say 0-5% development chances next 5 days but 80-90% beyond 6 days. I don't see it tracking north of the Caribbean.

I thought 93L and the Western Caribbean area the models start develop on the 19th are separate entity’s?

I don’t think so since GFS develops 93l into a formidable hurricane in the W. Carib. Not that I put any stock in the gfs but it’s the only one showing any significant development so far.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_45.png

[StPeteMike]

93L is technically suppose to “split”, with likely the weak LLC and wave going to the W Caribbean while the moisture and MLC portion going north of the islands. Reason why any development from the wave itself won’t occur until about a week from now.

[Aric Dunn]

The convective pattern this morning and the obvious well defined circ are very typical of what the NHC would upgrade for a sheared system.

Convection has manitained in a sheared pattern well within the distance from the center of past upgrades.


The convection has been persitant enough to not only develop a well defined LLC but has become more defined the last 24 hours.

yes its sheared.. looks like poop.. still a TC>

[underthwx]

The convective pattern this morning and the obvious well defined circ are very typical of what the NHC would upgrade for a sheared system.

Convection has manitained in a sheared pattern well within the distance from the center of past upgrades.


The convection has been persitant enough to not only develop a well defined LLC but has become more defined the last 24 hours.

yes its sheared.. looks like poop.. still a TC>

Good morning Aric...93L looking like raggedy ann this morning.....can you elaborate a bit on what may become of this system?....if I understand this correctly....conditions are expected to be unfavorable for the time being....will it eventually move into a more hospitable environment?....what potential did you feel that 93L has for development, looking at the big picture?....thank you

[Aric Dunn]

The convective pattern this morning and the obvious well defined circ are very typical of what the NHC would upgrade for a sheared system.

Convection has manitained in a sheared pattern well within the distance from the center of past upgrades.


The convection has been persitant enough to not only develop a well defined LLC but has become more defined the last 24 hours.

yes its sheared.. looks like poop.. still a TC>

Good morning Aric...93L looking like raggedy ann this morning.....can you elaborate a bit on what may become of this system?....if I understand this correctly....conditions are expected to be unfavorable for the time being....will it eventually move into a more hospitable environment?....what potential did you feel that 93L has for development, looking at the big picture?....thank you

Technically it is in a unfavorable environment now.. but here we are..

models are showing all or part of the energy reaching the western carrib where the environemnt may lead to development and deepening. Still a week away so we need to watch the progression of 93L.

[Aric Dunn]

How is that unorganized open wave going for everyone ? lol
sure the shear will get to this convection as well.. but as with sheared systems... the convection will likely come back...

[GeneratorPower]

How is that unorganized open wave going for everyone ? lol
sure the shear will get to this convection as well.. but as with sheared systems... the convection will likely come back...



https://i.ibb.co/c1W9NpP/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20201013-132017.gif

https://i.ibb.co/wzftDch/LABELS-19700101-000000-36.gif

I have personally upgraded this system to Tropical Impression 75.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1316021094709485570

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1316021094709485570

This looks nothing like a TD in my honest opinion. Way too much shear out there.

There’s a good reason why the NHC has begun to lower development chances.

[SconnieCane]

Whether this wave becomes a tropical cyclone in the near term (unlikely, per NHC) is really irrelevant, the important thing is what it's going to contribute to eventual cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The MIami pro met says is more than 20% but the upper winds will do the job. Is like the 15 minutes of fame.

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1316023588709781504

[Sciencerocks]

This is clearly a tropical storm and has been since mid day yesterday based on the ascat and clearly defined LLC that now has convection. I think the nhc has finally gotten sick of upgrading for this season and has deservingly I may add said lets take a break.

[Aric Dunn]

The MIami pro met says is more than 20% but the upper winds will do the job. Is like the 15 minutes of fame.

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1316023588709781504

time and time again..

Shear will kill it.. it will never develop..

here we are again..

[cycloneye]

Right now this is not a Tropical Wave.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1316021094709485570

This looks nothing like a TD in my honest opinion. Way too much shear out there.

There’s a good reason why the NHC has begun to lower development chances.

Looks pretty close to one to me... TD's can still form in a sheared environment lol

[HurricaneEnzo]

Needs to maintain longer before they will pull the trigger. Other than that looks completely classifiable. Shear is likely to just blow all the convection away and leave a naked swirl in a couple of hours though. If it defies the shear until later this evening they might feel comfortable enough to make the call. If it does manage to get classified will be another short lived system.

[Aric Dunn]

Needs to maintain longer before they will pull the trigger. Other than that looks completely classifiable. Shear is likely to just blow all the convection away and leave a naked swirl in a couple of hours though. If it defies the shear until late this evening they might feel comfortable enough to make the call.

again.. pulsing convection for the last 24 hours..

the day and life of a sheared TC.. completely classifiable. and from ASCAT and TS>>

[aspen]

If this does develop, will it go north of the GAs and perhaps try to become something more significant there, or will it continue due west and become the Caribbean TC we’ve been following in the models thread? How much does the solution of that Caribbean TC depend on 93L remaining as an open wave?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Needs to maintain longer before they will pull the trigger. Other than that looks completely classifiable. Shear is likely to just blow all the convection away and leave a naked swirl in a couple of hours though. If it defies the shear until late this evening they might feel comfortable enough to make the call.

again.. pulsing convection for the last 24 hours..

the day and life of a sheared TC.. completely classifiable. and from ASCAT and TS>>

No where near organized enough yesterday. This is by far the best it has looked in its existence and should it hold together for a few more hours probably will get classified. Yesterday it was nothing but an elongated looking circ with minimal convection barfing out outflow boundaries everywhere. No way that should have been classified.