Tropical cyclone 09s

[HURAKAN]

23/2030 UTC 16.7S 54.1E T2.5/2.5 96S -- South Indian Ocean

[P.K.]

BULLETIN DU 24 JANVIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

ZONE PERTURBEE 08-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1007 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 JANVIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 17.8 SUD / 52.7 EST
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 445 KM AU NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.1S/50.4E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 23.5S/48.4E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 27.5S/48.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE ACTUELLEMENT PAS L'ENREGISTREMENT DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.

[Meso]

I don't think we have gotten a direct hit,although I might be wrong.. But South Africa has come close and has been affected due to cyclones before :

http://www.weathersa.co.za/Pressroom/20 ... Japhet.jsp
http://www.weathersa.co.za/Pressroom/20 ... CEline.jsp

[WindRunner]

So a depression in 3 days. OK . . . must not be that favorable of an environment, I guess.

[P.K.]

So a depression in 3 days. OK . . . must not be that favorable of an environment, I guess.

It is forecast to be an extratropical low in three days.

BULLETIN DU 24 JANVIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1006 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 JANVIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 18.5 SUD / 52.2 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 425 KM AU NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21S/49.9E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 24.5S/48.4E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 28.5S/50.1E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'ENREGISTREMENT DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.

[senorpepr]

Posted to the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update are links from Meteo-France/La Reunion. This includes a link to their bulletin (en français) and a forecast map. Additionally are satellite imagery from NRL.

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/swio.htm

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S 54.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. A 231128Z AMSU-B
SATELLITE PASS REVEALED THE AREA OF CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM 231200Z INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES RANGING BETWEEN 1009 MB AND
1011 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. GIVEN THE LIMITED EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND THE STILL ORGANI-
ZING CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 54.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 52.1E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF
LA REUNION. A 241021Z AMSR-E SATELLITE PASS REVEALED AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR A VERY SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). NONETHELESS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS SMALL
CIRCULATION ONLY INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND AND PRESSURES RANGING
BETWEEN 1011 MB AND 1013 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STRENGTHENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

Convection has increased significantly over the past few hours!

[Coredesat]

24/2030 UTC 18.4S 51.8E T3.0/3.0 96S

They really need to upgrade this!

[Coredesat]

WWIO21 KNES 242052
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT-5 IRNIGHT
.
JANUARY 23 2006 2030Z
.
18.4S 51.8E T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS TC96S
.
PAST POSITIONS...17.2S 53.4E 24/0330Z VIS/IRDAY
16.7S 54.1E 23/2030Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS BURSTED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LLC
TUCKED VERY CLOSE WITH A BAND POSSIBLY WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE. MI PASSES WERE SCARCE OR POOR TODAY...TO NOT
HELP CONFIRM CENTER LOCATION. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT
LOCATION BANDING IS NOW .6 FOR A DT OF 3.0. MET IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS FOR A 2.5. PT IS 3.0. FT
IS 3.0 BASED ON DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 25/0400Z.

[P.K.]

FQZA31 FAPR 241700
SECURITE:
=========
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
24th OF JANUARY 2006 AT 17:00 UTC.

MADAGASCAR EAST: (10.5S/25S, MADAGASCAR COAST/55E)
WIND : Cyclonic 25 to 30 in the north, otherwise E
to NE 15 to 25.
VIS : Poor in showers.
SEA STATE: 2.0 to 3.0m in the south, with SSE swell.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 242130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 51.7E TO 22.0S 49.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S
52.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
WEST OF LA REUNION. A 241918Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER A VERY SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
DISTURBANCE INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND AND PRESSURES RANGING
BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1014 MB, IT IS LIKELY THAT OBSERVATION COVERAGE
IS UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252130Z.//



Are you looking for TC 09S? You may get it in the next few hours. Stay tuned!

[P.K.]

Upgraded to TD 8, but not forecast to develop anymore than it has so far:

BULLETIN DU 25 JANVIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 25 JANVIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 18.9 SUD / 51.0 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE ET UN DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 505 KM A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21.4S/48.8E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 26.7S/49.1E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 31S/54.8E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN ACTUALISE A 10H30

[HURAKAN]

NRL ANNOUNCES THAT TC 09S IS HERE!

[HURAKAN]

IT SEEMS TC 09S WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR, THEREFORE, I MAKE A SUGGESTION!

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242121Z JAN 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.0S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.3S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 51.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL TRACK
POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 24 HOURS. NONETHELESS, INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE THEREAFTER. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242121Z JAN 06
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 242130). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z AND 260300Z.//



FIRST ADVISORY!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The sab t number is 3.0=45 knots. This system has very faverable upper level high with low shear of 5 knots. A outflow jet has formed over the southern quad. It reminds me alot of Wilma or Katrina or Rita. But I don't think it will have time to set up all the way.

[HurricaneBill]

It looks rather tiny. I wonder if it's a midget cyclone.

[mike815]

yeah looks that way

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING MUCH, MUCH, MUCH BETTER!