Tropical cyclone 09s

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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 01, 2006 10:14 pm

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.4S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.5S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.8S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.9S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 38.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS INDICATE THAT TC 09S HAS NEARLY COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC
LOOP. ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE STORM
CENTER. A 020017Z TRMM PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF AN EYE FEATURE. THE STORM REMAINS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING INFLUENCE OF RIDGES
TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AS IT BUILDS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.


"THE CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE STORM
CENTER. A 020017Z TRMM PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF AN EYE FEATURE." JTWC.
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#102 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:21 am

hmmm, looks good to me :)
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#103 Postby P.K. » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:57 am

55kts

BULLETIN DU 02 FEVRIER A 13H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 980 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.6 SUD / 38.6 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1740 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.4S/39E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 22S/40E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25.2S/42.1E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 16H30
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#104 Postby P.K. » Thu Feb 02, 2006 8:00 am

65kts

BULLETIN DU 02 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 968 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 19.6 SUD / 38.5 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1750 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.2S/39.1E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 24S/42.4E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 29.4S/46E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
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#105 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:51 am

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 38.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 38.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.0S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.1S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.8S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.7S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 020500Z
AND 020530Z SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SOUTH AFRICA KEEPS THE
SYSTEM FROM TRACKING POLEWARD. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ALLOW TC
09S TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL ALSO AID IN THE STEERING
FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 09S WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SUSTAINED OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ONCE THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT TO THE ANTICYCLONE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.


Image

BOLOETSE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER, AND BETTER ORGANIZED.
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#106 Postby P.K. » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:42 pm

70kts, forecast to become an Intense TC. :eek:

BULLETIN DU 02 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 966 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 20.1 SUD / 39.0 EST
(VINGTS DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1690 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 22.9S/41.4E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 26.9S/44.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 32.1S/48E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 02, 2006 6:07 pm

Image

THERE ISN'T A GOOD ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES BAD TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BOLOETSE IS LOOKING BETTER THAN EVER!
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#108 Postby P.K. » Thu Feb 02, 2006 6:46 pm

Indeed, the above forecast takes it to 100kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 021846 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/8/20052006
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE)
2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 39.0E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4S/40.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 24.9S/42.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 26.9S/44.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 29.4S/46.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 32.1S/48.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5
EYE IS NOW CLEARLY EVIDENCED ON INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS.
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR)
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.=
NNNN

Image
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#109 Postby P.K. » Fri Feb 03, 2006 4:06 am

80kts

BULLETIN DU 03 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 955 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 20.9 SUD / 39.9 EST
(VINGTS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1590 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 23.5S/42E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 27S/45E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 31S/50.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA ENREGISTRE A 16H30
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#110 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 03, 2006 8:16 am

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.0S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.9S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.2S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.9S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 40.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, RAGGED EYE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. TC 09S HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE FORWARD
SPEED AND IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN
ANTICYCLONE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE BOTH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC 09S. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOR-
ABLE HOWEVER, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 TO 48 WILL
CAUSE TC 09S TO BEGIN RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 72 AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.


Image

TC BOLOETSE HAS JUST EXPLOTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALING A BEAUTIFUL EYE AND A MAGNIFICENT OUTFLOW. WATCH OUT SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR, BECAUSE BOLOETSE IS COMING!
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#111 Postby senorpepr » Fri Feb 03, 2006 8:35 am

85kt (10-min avg) [This would equate to near 95kt US standard 1-min avg]

===

BULLETIN DU 03 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 950 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 21.4 SUD / 40.7 EST
(VINGT ET UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1505 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 24S/42.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 27.9S/46.5E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 32.3S/52.3E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA ENREGISTRE VERS 22H30 LOCALES
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#112 Postby mike815 » Fri Feb 03, 2006 9:14 am

wow nice eye forming
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MiamiensisWx

#113 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Feb 03, 2006 11:47 am

Image
Image

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.8S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.5S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.5S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.4S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 38.2S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 41.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE, NOW WITH A
RADIUS OF 06 NM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS
IT IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MADA-
GASCAR. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER STEERING WINDS AS WELL AS THE VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT, TC 09S
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND START A RAPID WEAKENING
TREND. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT)
AND SHOULD COMPLETE XT BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//

NNNN


The storm is starting to look slightly less organized!
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#114 Postby P.K. » Fri Feb 03, 2006 1:50 pm

Upgraded to an intense TC with 90kt sustained winds.

BULLETIN DU 03 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 946 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 22.5 SUD / 41.7 EST
(VINGT-DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1405 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 22 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 25.4S/44.4E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 29.4S/48.5E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 33S/54E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN ACTUALISE A 04H30
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#115 Postby Coredesat » Fri Feb 03, 2006 10:38 pm

04/0230 UTC 23.5S 42.5E T5.5/5.5 BOLOETSE

Image
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Coredesat

#116 Postby Coredesat » Fri Feb 03, 2006 10:45 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 23.2S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.9S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.9S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.5S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.5S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 38.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 42.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS ONCE AGAIN LOST A VISIBLE EYE
ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS DISCERNIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEARLY SIX HOURS AGO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE INCREASED LAND INTERACTION
AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A
SOUTHEASTLY TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL FACILITATE THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (XT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z,
041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z.//

NNNN
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#117 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 04, 2006 12:15 am

Officially 90kt (10-min avg)--that converts to roughly 105kt US standard (1-min avg)


BULLETIN DU 04 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 946 HPA.
POSITION LE 04 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 23.2 SUD / 42.4 EST
(VINGT-TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1340 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 18 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 26.4S/45E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 32.4S/49.9E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 37S/61E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 10H30
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#118 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 04, 2006 1:49 am

Maintaining 90kt (10-min avg)--that converts to roughly 105kt US standard (1-min avg)



==

BULLETIN DU 04 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 946 HPA.
POSITION LE 04 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 23.7 SUD / 42.9 EST
(VINGT-TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1295 KM A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 27.9S/45.8E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 33.9S/53E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 38.9S/67E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION CE SAMEDI 04 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES
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#119 Postby Coredesat » Sat Feb 04, 2006 6:47 am

Passing over the southern tip of Madagascar:

04/0900 UTC 24.4S 43.3E T4.5/5.5 BOLOETSE

Image
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#120 Postby Coredesat » Sat Feb 04, 2006 6:48 am

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 23.9S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.0S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.2S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.1S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 41.7S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 040438Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BANDING
EYE, WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//

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