Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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HURAKAN
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Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 15, 2006 4:24 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9S 154.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK BUT WELL DE-
FINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY. A 150750Z QUIKSCAT PASS VERIFIES THE PRESENCE
OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE
TO THE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL EN-
VIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

_____________________________________________________________

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Saturday the 15th of April 2006

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

A weak low in the Solomon Sea is forecast to move toward the central or
northwest Coral Sea over the next few days. However, no significant development
is likely during this time and the system therefore has a low potential of
developing into a tropical cyclone.


Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane are available on
Weather By Fax 190 293 5278 at a cost of $1.38 per minute [GST incl] and
can also be accessed through the Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical
Cyclone Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. See
http:/www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/ or to subscribe to this service
call Darwin 08 8920 3820.


Image


LETS KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:59 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby P.K. » Sat Apr 15, 2006 4:51 pm

This is the 1004hPa low on here. The time of the surface analysis is 1800 GMT.


HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 15 APRIL 2006

PART 1 WARNINGS
Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION
A ridge persists along much of the east Queensland coast from a slow eastward
moving 1027hPa high east of New Zealand. A trough extended from a weak low near
10S156E to 28S155E. Low moving very slowly southwest
.

PART 3 FORECAST
North of 10S...
NW/NE winds 5/15 knots with smooth to slight seas. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm areas.

South of 10S and West of trough...
SE winds 15/25 knots with moderate to rough seas and a low to moderate SE swell.
Winds increasing to 25/30 knots, with rough seas, south of 26S overnight and
extending northwards during Sunday. Isolated showers.

South of 10S and East of trough...
SE/NE winds 10/20 knots becoming SE throughout area by 161100UTC. Moderate to
rough seas and a low building SE swell.


WEATHER BRISBANE
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Weatherfreak000

#3 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Apr 15, 2006 5:43 pm

It definitely is impressive looking.

I wonder if it'll develop...
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Squeako da Magnifico
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#4 Postby Squeako da Magnifico » Sun Apr 16, 2006 5:41 am

Latest High Sea Forecast.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 16 APRIL 2006

PART 1 WARNINGS
Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION
Trough from 08S142E to Low [1000hPa] near 11S152E to 14S157E. Low is moving west
at about 07 knots. Ridge from 08S164E to 23S166E to 28S170E. A strong high
moving across southern Australia will move into the southern Tasman on Monday.


PART 3 FORECAST
W of 157E and N of trough.
NW/NE winds 10/15 knots with slight seas. Winds increasing 10/20 knots near low
with slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, tending to
rain areas near low.

E of 157E and N of 14S.
E/NE winds 10/20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms.

W of 157E and S of Trough.
E/SE winds 10/20 knots with slight to moderate seas, increasing to 20/30 knots S
of 15S with moderate to rough seas. A low to moderate SE swell, increasing to
moderate S of 20S. Isolated showers. Isolated thunderstorms north of 20S.

Remainder.
E/NE winds 10/20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. A low to moderate S/SE swell
increasing to moderate S of 20S. Isolated showers. Isolated thunderstorms north
of 20S.

It has definately intensify a bit. And Deep convection has certainly increased.
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#5 Postby Squeako da Magnifico » Sun Apr 16, 2006 5:42 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Sunday the 16th of April 2006

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

However, a low located near 9.0S 152.5E, east of Papua New Guinea, is forecast
to move southwest into the northwest Coral Sea by late Monday and should
continue to drift in a general westward direction. Probability forecast for
development of a tropical cyclone for the next three days:

Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MEDIUM
Wednesday: MEDIUM

Note that for the purposes of this forecast probabilities are defined as:
LOW [10% or less]
MEDIUM [20-40%]
HIGH [50% or greater]
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MiamiensisWx

#6 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:26 pm

Any news on the system?
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#7 Postby NONAME » Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:29 pm

The JTWC Upgrade the chance of it devloping to fair
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#8 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:33 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Any news on the system?


The BoM are concerned enough to have started advisories on the low.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1929 UTC 16 April 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals is
expected to be centred at 170000 UTC near 12.5 south 150.0 east south-west at 8
knots. Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nm of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 25 to 33 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots within the
next 12 hours. Seas rising to very rough.

Forecast position at 171200 UTC near 13.2 south 148.5 east with central pressure
dropping to 995 hpa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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MiamiensisWx

#9 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:34 pm

Looks like something to watch!
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Coredesat

#10 Postby Coredesat » Sun Apr 16, 2006 4:06 pm

TCFA has been issued:

WTPS21 PGTW 162030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/162021APR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 150.9E TO 13.1S 148.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 150.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S
151.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CORAL
SEA. THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 172030Z.//


Image
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MiamiensisWx

#11 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 4:26 pm

That looks good! Let's see if it continues to strengthen.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:09 pm

16/2000 UTC 10.7S 150.5E T2.5/2.5 97P -- South Pacific Ocean

Monica is almost here!!!
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#13 Postby Squeako da Magnifico » Sun Apr 16, 2006 7:58 pm

Monica is Born

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:45am on Monday the 17th of April 2006

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
between Torres Strait and Cape Melville, and including the west coast of Cape
York Peninsula north of Mapoon.

At 10 am EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 1, was centred near latitude
12.4 south longitude 150.0 east, which is 620 km kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 710 km east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving southwest at
about 13 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify and adopt a general westward
track during the next two days and be near the east coast of Cape York Peninsula
during Wednesday morning.

People between Torres Strait and Cape Melville and far northern Cape York
Peninsula should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone
threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5pm EST today. If you are
unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.
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MiamiensisWx

#14 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:10 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65240.shtml

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ONE FOR AUSTRALIA! COULD THIS BE INGRID'S AND LARRY'S COUSIN?
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:43 pm

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MiamiensisWx

#16 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:45 pm

NRL site is down...
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:46 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:NRL site is down...


NRL isn't down... they haven't finished making the switch from 97P.INVEST to 23P.MONICA
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MiamiensisWx

#18 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:47 pm

Is that why the NRL Monica images just don't show up?
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:48 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Is that why the NRL Monica images just don't show up?


Exactly. If you go to NRL's page at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html then click "All" then 23P.NONAME.
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MiamiensisWx

#20 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:59 pm

Thanks, senor! Thanks for not trout-slapping me.

:wink: :wink: :wink: :wink:
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