Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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SouthFloridawx
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#481 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:12 pm

188.6 MPH
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Jim Cantore

#482 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:12 pm

You would almost never see a storm this powerful in the atlantic........... until last year, where there was three of them.

Bottom line, this thing is a monster and I pray for anyone in its path.
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#483 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:13 pm

Image
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#484 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:15 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Image


Talk about "Bottoming" out.
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#485 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:16 pm

Bunkered down: Top End braces for Monica's wallop

THE most intense cyclone in Top End history is threatening remote Aboriginal communities on Australia's northern coastline and Elcho Island where 2000 residents were last night sheltering from destructive winds.

As people in the Galiwin'ku community on Elcho Island sheltered in cyclone-coded buildings, the Northern Territory Bureau of Meteorology extended the cyclone watch area to include the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.

Cyclone Monica, which brought floods to far north Queensland last week, could hit Darwin tomorrow morning, senior forecaster Gordon Jackson said last night.

The Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre warned Monica was packing "very destructive winds" of up to 350kmh as it moved west across the sea over the weekend.

David Wilson, a resident of Galiwin'ku, 550 kilometres east of Darwin in North-East Arnhem Land, said residents were evacuated from low lying areas and taken to a cyclone-coded school. "Everything else has been just nailed down," Mr Wilson told ABC radio.

Mr Jackson said on its current track the core of the cyclone would pass between 50 and 100 kilometres from Elcho Island early this morning and would probably weaken as it crossed land.

Other communities preparing for the worst last night were Millingimbi and Maningrida. Maningrida, on the Liverpool Estuary in Arnhem Land, is well known for its indigenous art.

Mr Jackson said Monica would probably be a category three or four cyclone by the time it reached the Darwin area.

Hundreds of people spent the weekend in shelters in Nhulunbuy, a mining town in the NT's Gove Peninsula, as the edge of Monica passed.
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#486 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:27 pm

At 135kts (69m/s) this is just within the H4 category in the best track of 60-69m/s. Since 1984 five TCs have reached the H5 category of 70m/s+. These were were Harry 1988/89, Graham 1991/92, Jane 1991/92, Monty 2003/04, and Fay2003/04.
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#487 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:28 pm

current stats?
mph?
pressure?
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CHRISTY

#488 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:30 pm

WHAT AN INCREDIBLE STORM MONICA HAS TURNED OUT TO BE!!!

Image

HERE IS JEFF MASTERS TAKE ON MONICA!CLICK ON LINK...HERE'S A PARAGRAPH FROM HIS BLOG.Australia's hurricane season continues its parade of unusually intense storms this year with the intensification of Cyclone Monica today into a huge Category 5 storm. The 12 GMT advisory this morning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Monica at 165 mph sustained winds and a 892 mb pressure, making it second most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. The most intense Southern Hemisphere cyclone on record was Cyclone Zoe of 2003, which had a 879 mb pressure. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts Monica's pressure at 905 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest cyclone on record. Reliable records of cyclone intensity only go back to the mid-1980s in the Southern Hemisphere, but two of top five strongest hurricanes ever recorded there have occurred this year--Tropical Cyclone Glenda (898 mb) from March, and now Monica. What's really extraordinary about Monica is that she came so late in the season--tropical cyclone season is usually over by late April in the Southern Hemisphere. Monica's formation echoes what happened in the Atlantic last year, with the intensification of Hurricane Wilma to a record 882 mb pressure very late in the hurricane season--October 19. When one adds in the $1 billion in devastation wrought in Queensland by Category 4 Cyclone Larry (915 mb) in March, Australians must feel like residents of hurricane alley in the Atlantic did last year, when three of the six strongest hurricanes on record occurred, causing the most damage ever--what's going on with the weather? However, be reminded that the Northern Hemisphere Pacific Ocean had a very below-normal tropical cyclone season last year, and the Indian Ocean also had below normal activity

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#489 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:32 pm

P.K. wrote:At 135kts (69m/s) this is just within the H4 category in the best track of 60-69m/s. Since 1984 five TCs have reached the H5 category of 70m/s+. These were were Harry 1988/89, Graham 1991/92, Jane 1991/92, Monty 2003/04, and Fay2003/04.


Isn't 135 knot 10-min, or 153.9 knots 1-min or 177.29 mph?

So, it's a cat. 5.
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#490 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:35 pm

To quote the best track file:

53 - 54 mn_wnd_code code for maximum ten-minute mean GF 17-24 m/sec
wind. (before 1984, >= 33 m/sec SF 25-32 m/sec
coded as H1 only) H1 33-41 m/sec
H2 42-49 m/sec
H3 50-59 m/sec
H4 60-69 m/sec
H5 >= 70 m/sec


It looks very close to the SS scale but in ten minute averages, I guess that is actually in m/s and converted to kts?
Last edited by P.K. on Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#491 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:36 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
P.K. wrote:At 135kts (69m/s) this is just within the H4 category in the best track of 60-69m/s. Since 1984 five TCs have reached the H5 category of 70m/s+. These were were Harry 1988/89, Graham 1991/92, Jane 1991/92, Monty 2003/04, and Fay2003/04.


Isn't 135 knot 10-min, or 153.9 knots 1-min or 177.29 mph?

So, it's a cat. 5.


Right, it's 154kt using the 1-min standard
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#492 Postby whereverwx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:37 pm

Here are two loops and a few pictures; to enlarge, click on it.

Loops:

Image Image

Pictures:

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Image Image Image
Last edited by whereverwx on Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#493 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:38 pm

If that is not a category 5, then hell most be a nicer place than what I though.
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dwsqos2

#494 Postby dwsqos2 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:39 pm

Yes, yes, it's nothing but an automated guess; nonetheless, the word
amazing seems quiet appropriate yet again.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 11:18:45 S Lon : 135:45:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 868.6mb/170.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21.0km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0

Eye Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C
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#495 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:40 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 868.6mb/170.0kt
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#496 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:41 pm

Possibly a new world record - 869 mb extrapolated
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#497 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:WORLD RECORD - 869 mb


Its purely an automated guess, its not really that low unless the BoM say it is.
Last edited by P.K. on Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#498 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:42 pm

869 mb and 195 mph?
is this the norm?
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#499 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Possibly a new world record - 869 mb extrapolated


Once again, I should point out that the storm isn't near this pressure. Secondly, there have been SEVERAL storms with estimated pressures lower than Tip's.
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#500 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:45 pm

fact789 wrote:869 mb and 195 mph?
is this the norm?


The 195 mph is flight-level I believe; the correct wind speeds are 175 mph. 869 mb the norm? That's a new world record if it is indeed true.
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