Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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#501 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
fact789 wrote:869 mb and 195 mph?
is this the norm?


The 195 mph is flight-level I believe; the correct wind speeds are 175 mph. 869 mb the norm? That's a new world record if it is indeed true.


No. There are no flight level winds... there are no flights.

195 is a computerized guess.
869 is a computerized guess.
There is no world record as...
A) this is a guess,
B) there have been more storms with estimated pressures lower than Tip's

Please stick with official stuff and quit hyping up other junk.
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#502 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:48 pm

I truly hope this is not a sign of things that might occur in the atlantic this season....

Here's a WAVE GRAPHIC http://www.oceanweather.com/data/for Monica, there's a Java loop option in the upper right hand side. Looks to be 40'+.
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#503 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:53 pm

Another incredible factor - this is late in their season too. This would be like an October 23 monster in the Atlantic (i.e. Wilma).
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#504 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:10 pm

It may be weakening somewhat now, I hope. Eye has now become less circular.

This has probably been the closest to annular I've ever seen a Southern Hemisphere TC come to.
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#505 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:12 pm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 11:18:45 S Lon : 135:45:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 868.6mb/170.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21.0km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0

Eye Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : CLEAR EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#506 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:16 pm

Image

JTWC ALREADY CATCHED UP, 155 KNOTS!
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#507 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:17 pm

People lets be truthful we all guest. There is no plane or buoy to give us this info, so its a guest. Heck if the recon would of never gotten into Wilma we would of put the pressure about 20 or so millibars higher then it was. The lowest t number I remember for her was 6.5. So who knows all I know is this is just as impressive as Rita or Katrina if not more. Lets just say that. Thats a fact people...
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#508 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:18 pm

Also the JTWC has put it at 879 millibars there you go.
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#509 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:18 pm

879 mb according to JTWC? This is really getting serious.

Now we have a world-record 869 according to the unofficial Dvorak, a SH-record-tying 879 at JTWC and 905 at BoM.
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#510 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:18 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Also the JTWC has put it at 879 millibars there you go.


That ties the record for the Southern Hemisphere.
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#511 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:24 pm

Even the RECON final information that is distributed to the public is an estimate. After collecting the information, they need to chose if it's .90 or .80 or .85 or .70. It may be more exact than a satellite, there is no though of that, but it's still an estimate.
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#512 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:25 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Also the JTWC has put it at 879 millibars there you go.


That ties the record for the Southern Hemisphere.


Once again...

There have been estimates for much lower pressures... in both hemispheres.

This isn't a record nor does it tie one.
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#513 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:34 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone
emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 60
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
NHULUNBUY and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG
PENINSULA and JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between DALY RIVER MOUTH and PORT KEATS.

The CYCLONE WATCH between CAPE SHIELD and NHULUNBUY has been cancelled.

At 4 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 80
kilometres north northeast of ELCHO ISLAND and 150 kilometres northwest of
NHULUNBUY, moving west at 15 kilometres per hour. The cyclone will move further
west and closer to the coast later today. The cyclone is then expected to
gradually weaken as it passes over the COBOURG PENINSULA tonight before reaching
the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is currently affecting the islands off the northeast Arnhem
Land coast, including the northern parts of ELCHO ISLAND. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE
core is then expected to cross the north coast between MILINGIMBI and CROKER
ISLAND later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the remaining islands about the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and
should extend further west to CAPE DON by tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are expected to extend westwards to POINT
STUART and COBOURG PENINSULA tonight.

GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area on Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND this morning, extending westwards to GOULBURN ISLAND
later today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem Land this morning, extending across the
remainder of the northern Top End during the day.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 135.8 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 910 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between NHULUNBUY and DALY RIVER MOUTH,
including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to PORT KEATS.

The next advice will be issued at 8 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


PRESURE UP 5 MB
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#514 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:36 pm

I'd agree with the BoM there. There are indeed signs of weakening. But at its peak I think it was closer to 900 mb, but without Recon, we will never know, I'm sorry to say. :(
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#515 Postby whereverwx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:39 pm

Image
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#516 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:43 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 23 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
11.3 S 135.8 E moving west at 8 knots. Central pressure 910 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 135 knots near centre.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

0600 UTC 24 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 11.6 S 134.1 E.
925 hPa. Winds to 125 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 24 Apr: centre within 75 nautical miles of 11.9 S 132.5 E.
945 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#517 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:44 pm

I think that we are now at peak intensity with this - the eyewall seems to be starting to fall apart...
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#518 Postby milankovitch » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:48 pm

Image

I'm inclined to agree with the JTWC estimate of 879mb. Mostly based on a microwave signature which is the best I've ever seen. The MIMIC ends 2 hours ago so its pretty recent. I really don't put a lot of faith in the CIMSS DVORAK though. It is just an estimate though. With the IR I can't tell if the eye is becoming less circular or small enough to be poorly resolved. Whether its 910, 879 or somewhere in between we'll never know with out recon.
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#519 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:56 pm

was there anything on that island that Monica moved over?!

she looks annular too.
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#520 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:58 pm

There was at least an AWS but that stopped reporting hours ago as it passed over.

Image
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