Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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MiamiensisWx

#521 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:07 pm

Any thoughts if shear might eventually weaken Monica?
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Coredesat

#522 Postby Coredesat » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:32 pm

The shear in this area is fairly light, so I think the main source of weakening is land interaction, sadly.

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dwsqos2

#523 Postby dwsqos2 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:36 pm

Here is the current CIMSS estimate, still very impressive, though still very unofficial.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 193300 UTC
Lat : 11:18:54 S Lon : 135:33:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 868.6mb/170.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22.1km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

Eye Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : CLEAR EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
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#524 Postby milankovitch » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:51 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Any thoughts if shear might eventually weaken Monica?


Yep, right now there is all of 7 knots of shear over Monica.
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#525 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:56 pm

170KTS Even estimated is still a very powerful storm.
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#526 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:56 pm

It looks to have picked up alot of speed to the west. Moving pretty quickly right now may get to darwin with little problem.
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#527 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:07 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks to have picked up alot of speed to the west. Moving pretty quickly right now may get to darwin with little problem.


But it will weaken, before it gets to Darwin. Shear will increase slightly, land is near...
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Scorpion

#528 Postby Scorpion » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:32 pm

It should be a Cat 1 or 2 by the time it hits Darwin. Still going to be nasty though.
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#529 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:40 pm

Shear is not that strong over her right now to weaken her to a cat 1 or 2.

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#530 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:41 pm

Scorpion wrote:It should be a Cat 1 or 2 by the time it hits Darwin. Still going to be nasty though.


More likely at least a Cat 3 (Australian Cat 4) unless it makes landfall now. Remember a closer track to Darwin has more water in the way.
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#531 Postby milankovitch » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:41 pm

Scorpion wrote:It should be a Cat 1 or 2 by the time it hits Darwin. Still going to be nasty though.


JTWC calling for 150 mph sustained at landfall. It all depends on land interaction though.

EDIT: :lol: Everyone jumped on this one. And I agree it will catch the narrow part of the peninsula if it takes a direct track towards Darwin.
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#532 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:46 pm

Any SAT pics of her.
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#533 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:55 pm

Only IR, not visual, last time I looked HH. The sun is only just getting up over there.

Cheers

Rod
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#534 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:57 pm

Okay then, any IR pics of her?
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#535 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:57 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Okay then, any IR pics of her?


Image

CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE!!!
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#536 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:00 pm

Since HurricaneGirl isn't here I'll fill in........HOLY CRAP! :eek:
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#537 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:03 pm

The nearest community to Monica at present is Galiwinku, on Elcho Island; a community of 2000 to 2500 people, almost all Aboriginal . Fortunately the worst seems to be passing to the north of them.

You can find out something more about Galiwinku at http://www.galiwinku.nt.gov.au/home/our ... ty/profile

Image

Image

Image

Cheers

Rod
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#538 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:05 pm

How much is the population in Darwin? Isn't it a big city?
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#539 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:08 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:How much is the population in Darwin? Isn't it a big city?


109,478 (est. June 2004) WIKIPEDIA.

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#540 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:12 pm

A city of that population( which is very small) needs to evacuate pretty much NOW!
Hey HURAKAN, after Monica moves through could you post that picture as an updated version, I like looking at Before and After photos.
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