Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

[benny]

Monica is no Larry!!! At least not yet... still have some hours til landfall. Still impressive in the Cat 3 US scale range..

[SouthFloridawx]

Monica is no Larry!!! At least not yet... still have some hours til landfall. Still impressive in the Cat 3 US scale range..

I thought that Larry was smaller in sized compared to Monica, that's what I was talking about.

[MiamiensisWx]

I meant that the cloud pattern looked a bit similar to Larry. Sorry for sounding confusing! It is different than Larry in many other aspects.

[Weatherfreak000]

I see the huge graphics/big bolded commentary are getting...urm...redundant.



Anyway Monica is looking good, where do the model runs take her?

[MiamiensisWx]

Sorry, Weatherfreak000!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, another big storm to add to the 2006 list.

[cycloneye]

I see the huge graphics/big bolded commentary are getting...urm...redundant.

Well I dont see anything wrong about posting graphics unless they are very large that eats the server.

CapeVerdeWave when you post graphics be sure they are not very large.Try to post them a little bit smaller.

[Weatherfreak000]

I see the huge graphics/big bolded commentary are getting...urm...redundant.

Well I dont see anything wrong about posting graphics unless they are very large that eats the server.

No problems, just when I see one every single storm advisory it gets....annoying.


There is no need to apologize CapeVerde, it's fine

[MiamiensisWx]

OK... thanks, Luis! I'll try to make the graphics smaller.

[cycloneye]

I see the huge graphics/big bolded commentary are getting...urm...redundant.



Anyway Monica is looking good, where do the model runs take her?

UKMET



GFS

Here are two models solutions of Tropical Cyclone Monica.

[cycloneye]

Radar loop

Above is a good radar image with loops of the area where Tropical Cyclone Monica is tracking.

[CHRISTY]

[cycloneye]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over Cape York Peninsula north of
Pormpuraaw are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:49am on Wednesday the 19th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Torres
Strait and Cape Melville, extending across Cape York Peninsula to all areas
north of Pormpuraaw.

A CYCLONE WATCH has also been issued for Northern Territory coastal and island
communities between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and
Nhulunbuy.

At 11.30 am EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, was centred near
latitude 13.0 south longitude 144.0 east, 55 kilometres east of Lockhart River.
The cyclone is moving in a general west to southwest direction around 18 km/h.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts above 130 km/h are now developing on the exposed
coast between Cape Grenville and Port Stewart. GALES are expected to develop
across other coastal areas between Torres Strait and Cape Melville.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Monica with wind gusts increasing up to 220 km/hr
is expected to cross the coast near Cape Sidmouth about mid afternoon.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to continue moving in a general westwards
direction across Cape York Peninsula this evening and overnight and enter the
Gulf of Carpentaria Thursday morning. Gales may develop about the Northern
Territory coast between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and
Nhulunbuy overnight Thursday into Friday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, for 11.30am EST
Wednesday.
Central Pressure : 960 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.0 degrees south
longitude 144.0 degrees east
55 km east of Lockhart River.
Recent Movement : southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 75 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 200 kilometres per hour, and INTENSIFYING.

Coastal residents between Cape Grenville and Cape Melville are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to rise steadily up to a level significantly above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas extending some way inland.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow

directions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the

authorities.

Very heavy flooding rain will develop over land this afternoon.

People in communities in Torres Strait and over Cape York Peninsula north of a
line from Pormpuraaw to Cape Melville should complete preparations quickly and
be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

The next warning will be issued by 1 pm Wednesday.

[senorpepr]

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0051 UTC 19 April 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals
centred at 190000 UTC near 12.9 south 144.3 east moving south west at 6 knots.
Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds greater than 34 knots within 120 nm of the centre.
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre.
High to very high seas on heavy swells.

Forecast positions

At 191200 UTC overland near 13.1 S 142.6 E with central pressure 980 hPa and
maximum winds near the centre to 55 knots.

At 200000 UTC in the Gulf of Carpentaria near 13.1 S 140.7 E with central
pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds near the centre to 55 knots.

Monica is expected to move west over the Gulf of Carpentaria and reintensify
during the following 24 hours.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[Rod Hagen]

Just by way of information, Lockhart River, which it is pretty close to now, is an Aboriginal community of around 800-1000 people.

On the western side of Cape York the major towns are Aurukun and Wepia. Aurukun is another predominantly Aborignal community, with a similar sized population to Lockhart River. Weipa is a major Bauxite mining centre with a population of around 3000.

Once it crosses the Gulf of Carpentaria it has the potential to impact on a number of other Aboriginal communities and mining towns. Looking at the path it could even strike Darwin, I would guess.




Rod

[HURAKAN]

4/23 IS NOT MISSING, IT JUST THAT IT SHOWS THE SYSTEM LEAVING THE NORTHERN TERRITORY ALMOST DISSIPATED. FURTHERMORE, IF I ADD THE 4/23 SLIDE THEN THE SIX PATTERN WOULD BE DISRUPTED AND I WANTED TO SHOW THE 4/24 SLIDE. NEVERTHELESS, HERE THE MESSAGE IS THAT IT SEEMS UNLIKE INGRID, MONICA WILL HAVE TO INGEST LAND AND NOT SAND.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.1S 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.2S 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.1S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.5S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 143.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN IMPROVEMENT
IN TC STRUCTURE. TC 23P WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATED STEERING
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE WILL INITIALLY WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND
200300Z.



THE JTWC ESTIMATES 100 MPH, BUT IF WE TAKE THE BoM STATEMENT OF 80 KNOTS TO 1-MIN THEN IT WOULD CORRELATE TO DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 105 MPH. NEVERTHELESS, MONICA IS A POWERFUL CYCLONE THAT WILL CAUSE A MAYOR HAVOK TO ANYONE IN ITS PATH.

[Squeako da Magnifico]

Well Monica has crossed south of Lockhart River.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:56pm on Wednesday the 19th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for communities over Cape York Peninsula south of a
line from Mapoon to Cape Grenville and north of a line from Pormpuraaw to Cape
Melville.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities
between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy.

At 3.00 pm EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, was centred near
latitude 13.1 south longitude 143.4 east about 35 kilometres south southeast of
Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving west southwest around 18 km/hr.

The centre of the cyclone has crossed the coast to the south of Lockhart River.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts above 130 km/hr are occurring on the coast between
Cape Grenville and Port Stewart.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Monica with wind gusts to 200 km/hr has moved onto
the coast between Lockhart River and Cape Sidmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to continue moving in a general westwards
direction across Cape York Peninsula this evening and overnight and enter the
Gulf of Carpentaria Thursday morning. Gales may develop about the Northern
Territory coast between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and
Nhulunbuy overnight Thursday into Friday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, for 3.00 pm EST
Wednesday.
Central Pressure : 960 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.1 degrees south
longitude 143.4 degrees east
35 km south southeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 75 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 200 kilometres per hour

Coastal residents between Cape Direction and Cape Melville are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to rise steadily up to a level significantly above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas extending some way inland.

People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take



measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow

directions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

Very heavy flooding rain will occur over land this afternoon and overnight.

People in the path of this dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a
secure shelter while the very destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside
if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Listen to the advice and follow
the directions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next warning will be issued by 4 pm Wednesday.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Ugh, even stronger during second landfall? (In case the JTWC got it right)

Nasty but definately a possibility. The Carpentaria has barely seen anything this year, so a boiling pot's waiting.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0650 UTC 19 April 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals
centred at 190600 UTC near 13.1 south 143.4 east moving west southwest at 8
knots. Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.

FORECAST
Mostly clockwise winds greater than 34 knots within 120 nm of the centre.
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre.
High to very high seas on heavy swells.

Forecast positions

At 191800 UTC overland near 13.4 S 141.7 E with central pressure 980 hPa and
maximum winds near the centre to 55 knots.

At 200600 UTC in the Gulf of Carpentaria near 13.3 S 140.2 E with central
pressure 970 hPa and maximum winds near the centre to 65 knots.

Monica is expected to move west over the Gulf of Carpentaria during next 12
hours and reintensify in the Gulf of Carpentaria during the following 24 hours.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

-------------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN - EASTERN REGION
Issued at 0644 UTC on 19/04/06


Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica at 190600 UTC was centred at 13.1S 143.4E with
central pressure 960 hPa and moving WSW at 8 knots.

Dvorak Classification T5.0/5.0/S/24HRS

Forecast position:

At 19 1800 UTC 13.4S 141.7E with central pressure 980 hPa

At 20 0600 UTC 13.3S 140.2E with central pressure 970 hPa

At 20 1800 UTC 13.0S 139.2E

At 21 0600 UTC 12.9S 138.1E


REMARKS
Position based on Weipa radar imagery. Dvorak based on EBC in LG with banding
feature. MET and PAT agree. Track expected to continue to the west under
influence of dominant mid-level steering ridge to the south of the system.

--------------------------------

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060419/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: Monica
NR: 09
PSN: S1306 E14324
MOV: WSW 8KT
C: 960HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 19/1200 S1313 E14239
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 19/1800 S1321 E14143
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 20/0000 S1327 E14058
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 20/0600 S1320 E14012
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
NXT MSG: 20060419/1200Z