NOT BAD! LOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW!
Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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MiamiensisWx
I don't think so.. yesterday I took a look at the track as it was forming and it just suggested a very close westward track. There was some evidence yesterday that it was thinking about taking a southern turn though and visiting Australia after the fact.. but I didn't pay close enough attention to the model.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
65kts in 24 hours.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0724 UTC 17 April 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 995 hectopascals was centred
near 12.5 south 149.6 east at 170600 UTC moving southwest about 6 knots.
Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34 to 40 knots increasing to 65 knots near the centre within the
next 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough.
Forecast position
171800 UTC near 12.9 south 148.0 east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum
winds to 55 knots
180600 UTC near 12.8 south 146.3 east with central pressure 970 hpa and maximum
winds to 65 knots near the centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
WEATHER BRISBANE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0724 UTC 17 April 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 995 hectopascals was centred
near 12.5 south 149.6 east at 170600 UTC moving southwest about 6 knots.
Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34 to 40 knots increasing to 65 knots near the centre within the
next 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough.
Forecast position
171800 UTC near 12.9 south 148.0 east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum
winds to 55 knots
180600 UTC near 12.8 south 146.3 east with central pressure 970 hpa and maximum
winds to 65 knots near the centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
See http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65240.shtml
Also http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:43pm on Monday the 17th of April 2006
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
between Torres Strait and Cooktown, and including the west coast of Cape York
Peninsula north of Mapoon.
At 4 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 1, was centred near latitude
12.5 south longitude 149.6 east, which is 580 km kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 660 km east of Lockhart River.
The cyclone is moving west-southwest at about 10 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify and adopt a general westward
track during the 24 to 48 hours days and be near the east coast of Cape York
Peninsula early Wednesday morning.
People between Torres Strait and Cooktown and far northern Cape York Peninsula
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases and listen to the next advice at 11 pm EST tonight. If you are unsure
about actions to be taken, information is available from your local government
or local State Emergency Service.
________________
Rod[/img]
Also http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:43pm on Monday the 17th of April 2006
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
between Torres Strait and Cooktown, and including the west coast of Cape York
Peninsula north of Mapoon.
At 4 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 1, was centred near latitude
12.5 south longitude 149.6 east, which is 580 km kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 660 km east of Lockhart River.
The cyclone is moving west-southwest at about 10 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify and adopt a general westward
track during the 24 to 48 hours days and be near the east coast of Cape York
Peninsula early Wednesday morning.
People between Torres Strait and Cooktown and far northern Cape York Peninsula
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases and listen to the next advice at 11 pm EST tonight. If you are unsure
about actions to be taken, information is available from your local government
or local State Emergency Service.
________________
Rod[/img]
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
45kts, 990hPa
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1245 UTC 17 April 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals was centred
near 12.6 south 149.4 east at 171200 UTC moving west-southwest about 5 knots.
Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34 to 45 knots increasing to 65 knots near the centre within the
next 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough to high.
Forecast position
180000 UTC near 12.5 south 147.6 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum
winds to 55 knots
181200 UTC near 12.4 south 145.8 east with central pressure 970 hpa and maximum
winds to 65 knots near the centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
WEATHER BRISBANE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1245 UTC 17 April 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals was centred
near 12.6 south 149.4 east at 171200 UTC moving west-southwest about 5 knots.
Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34 to 45 knots increasing to 65 knots near the centre within the
next 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough to high.
Forecast position
180000 UTC near 12.5 south 147.6 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum
winds to 55 knots
181200 UTC near 12.4 south 145.8 east with central pressure 970 hpa and maximum
winds to 65 knots near the centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
50kts (57kts in 1 minute averages so yes you were right Hurakan 
)
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1809 UTC 17 April 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals was centred
near 12.6 south 148.5 east at 171800 UTC moving west about 7 knots. Position
fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 50 knots increasing to 65 knots near the centre within the next
18-24 hours. Seas rising to high to very high.
Forecast position
180600 UTC near 12.6 south 146.8 east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum
winds to 60 knots
181800 UTC near 12.8 south 144.9 east with central pressure 970 hpa and maximum
winds to 65 knots near the centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
WEATHER BRISBANE
)
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1809 UTC 17 April 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals was centred
near 12.6 south 148.5 east at 171800 UTC moving west about 7 knots. Position
fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 50 knots increasing to 65 knots near the centre within the next
18-24 hours. Seas rising to high to very high.
Forecast position
180600 UTC near 12.6 south 146.8 east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum
winds to 60 knots
181800 UTC near 12.8 south 144.9 east with central pressure 970 hpa and maximum
winds to 65 knots near the centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:Could we see an Ingrid-like track and scenario develop somewhat?
NOGAPS agrees that an Ingrid-like scenario is possible.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006041712
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Can someone show a regular satelite pic?
http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
senorpepr wrote:I've added Monica to the S2K tropics page...
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/spac.htm
All the links from NRL are loaded now...
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139052
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:34am on Tuesday the 18th of April 2006
A Cyclone warning is current for coastal and island communities between Torres
Strait and Cape Flattery. A Cyclone watch extends south to Cooktown, and
elsewhere on Cape York Peninsula north of Aurukun.
At 7 am EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred near latitude
12.8 south longitude 148.4 east, which is 450 km kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 530 km east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving west-southwest
at about 12 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify further and continue moving on
a general westward track over the next 24 to 48 hours. Damaging winds are
possible between Torres Strait and Cape Flattery from early Wednesday. The VERY
DESTRUCTIVE core of Monica with wind gusts up to 170 km/hr is expected to be
near the coast between Cape Grenville and Cape Melville on Wednesday morning.
Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to continue moving west and cross the
northern Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday evening and move into the Gulf of
Carpentaria overnight on Wednesday.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 7 am EST Tuesday.
Central Pressure : 985 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 12.8 degrees south
longitude 148.4 degrees east
530 km east of Lockhart River.
Recent Movement : West-southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 40 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour, and INTENSIFYING.
People in coastal and island communities between Torres Strait and Cape Flattery
should commence or continue preparations especially attempting to secure boats
and property. People in the watch area should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at
11am EST Tuesday. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is
available from your local Police or State Emergency Service personnel.
The next warning will be issued at 11 am EST Tuesday.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:34am on Tuesday the 18th of April 2006
A Cyclone warning is current for coastal and island communities between Torres
Strait and Cape Flattery. A Cyclone watch extends south to Cooktown, and
elsewhere on Cape York Peninsula north of Aurukun.
At 7 am EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred near latitude
12.8 south longitude 148.4 east, which is 450 km kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 530 km east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving west-southwest
at about 12 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify further and continue moving on
a general westward track over the next 24 to 48 hours. Damaging winds are
possible between Torres Strait and Cape Flattery from early Wednesday. The VERY
DESTRUCTIVE core of Monica with wind gusts up to 170 km/hr is expected to be
near the coast between Cape Grenville and Cape Melville on Wednesday morning.
Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to continue moving west and cross the
northern Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday evening and move into the Gulf of
Carpentaria overnight on Wednesday.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 7 am EST Tuesday.
Central Pressure : 985 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 12.8 degrees south
longitude 148.4 degrees east
530 km east of Lockhart River.
Recent Movement : West-southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 40 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour, and INTENSIFYING.
People in coastal and island communities between Torres Strait and Cape Flattery
should commence or continue preparations especially attempting to secure boats
and property. People in the watch area should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at
11am EST Tuesday. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is
available from your local Police or State Emergency Service personnel.
The next warning will be issued at 11 am EST Tuesday.
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