Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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#41 Postby P.K. » Mon Apr 17, 2006 7:47 pm

From Brisbane:

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN - EASTERN REGION
Issued at 0039 UTC on 18/04/06


Tropical Cyclone Monica at 180000 UTC was centred at 12.9S 147.8E with central
pressure 985 hPa and moving W at 7 knots.
Dvorak Classification T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast position:

At 18 1200 UTC 12.9S 146.0E with central pressure 965 hPa

At 19 0000 UTC 13.1S 143.8E with central pressure 950 hPa

At 19 1200 UTC 13.1S 141.7E

At 20 0000 UTC 13.1S 139.9E

REMARKS
Dvorak based on EMB centre in white. PT and MET holds development to T4. Centre
will move to the west and middle high builds to the south and east.


From Darwin:

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060418/0000Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MONICA
NR: 04
PSN: S1254 E14748
MOV: W 07KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 18/0600 S1255 E14653
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 18/1200 S1255 E14558
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 18/1200 S1300 E14457
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 18/1800 S1305 E14351
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
NXT MSG: 20060418/0700Z
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mel2

#42 Postby mel2 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 7:53 pm

how are storm doing
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#43 Postby P.K. » Mon Apr 17, 2006 8:47 pm

Not sure what is happening here. The map has it as a cat 3 in 24 hours, and the warning below says in the forecast increasing to 85kts. However the position then says 115kts. (Think they put the gusts in as sustained in the position, hmmm)

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0102 UTC 18 April 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 980 hectopascals centred at
0000 UTC near 12.9 south 147.8 east moving WSW at 7 knots. Position fair.
Cyclone expected to intensify.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre
FORECAST
Clockwise winds greater than 34 knots within 220 nm of the centre on the
southern sector and to 170 nm in the northern sector.
Maximum winds near the centre to 85 knots.
Seas rising high to very high on heavy swells.

Forecast positions

At 18 1200 UTC 12.9 S 146.0 E with central pressure 965 hPa with central
pressure 965 hpa and maximum winds near the centre to 95 knots.

At 19 0000 UTC 13.1 S 143.8 E with central pressure 950 hPa with maximum winds
to 115 knots.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 17, 2006 11:43 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over Cape York Peninsula north of
Cooktown are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal..


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:47pm on Tuesday the 18th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Torres
Strait and Cape Flattery, extending across Cape York Peninsula to all areas
north of Pormpuraaw.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current south to a line from Cooktown on the east coast to
Kowanyama on the west coast.

At 1 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred near latitude
13.1 south longitude 147.2 east, which is 340 km kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 400 km east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving west at about
18 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify further and continue moving on
a general westward track over the next 24 to 48 hours. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with
gusts to 130 km/h may develop between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery including
Lizard Island this evening, and should extend onto the coast between Torres
Strait and Cape Flattery from early Wednesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Monica with wind gusts up to 200 km/hr is expected
to be near the coast between Lockhart River and Cape Melville on Wednesday
morning.

After crossing the coast, Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to continue moving
west across Cape York Peninsula and move into the Gulf of Carpentaria on
Wednesday night.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 1 pm EST Tuesday.
Central Pressure : 980 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.1 degrees south
longitude 147.2 degrees east
400 km east of Lockhart River.
Recent Movement : West at 18 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 110 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour, and INTENSIFYING.

People in communities in Torres Strait and over Cape York Peninsula north of a
line from Pormpuraaw to Cape Flattery should commence or continue preparations
especially attempting to secure boats and property.

Coastal residents between Lockhart River and Cape Melville are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging

waves and flooding of some low-lying areas near the shoreline. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions
regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

People in the watch area should consider what action they will need to take if
the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5 pm EST Tuesday.
If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from your
local Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next warning will be issued at 5 pm EST Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


10 kph more to cat. 3.
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Coredesat

#45 Postby Coredesat » Tue Apr 18, 2006 12:26 am

Image

EDIT: Comment removed.
Last edited by Coredesat on Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#46 Postby Rod Hagen » Tue Apr 18, 2006 12:39 am

Presumably by "Looking a lot better", you really mean "looking a lot worse" for the Aboriginal communities and others who live in its immediate path, Team Ragnorak?

:?:

I don't want to labour the point, but surely it is easy enough to use language which doesn't suffer from quite such obvious ambiguity and which is less likely to seem offensive to someone reading your message who is about to have it land on their doorstep? "Looking much more organised" comes to mind, for example?

Rod
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#47 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:11 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0720 UTC 18 April 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals centred at
0600 UTC near 13.5 south 146.6 east moving WSW at 12 knots. Position good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds greater than 34 knots within 120 nm of the centre in the
southern sector and within 80 nm in the northern sector.
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre.
High to very high seas on heavy swells.

Forecast positions

At 18 1800 UTC near 13.6 S 144.6 E with central pressure 960 hPa with maximum
winds near the centre to 75 knots.

At 19 0600 UTC near 13.9 S 142.4 E with central pressure 980 hPa with maximum
winds near the centre to 55 knots.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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Coredesat

#48 Postby Coredesat » Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:23 am

Rod Hagen wrote:I don't want to labour the point, but surely it is easy enough to use language which doesn't suffer from quite such obvious ambiguity and which is less likely to seem offensive to someone reading your message who is about to have it land on their doorstep? "Looking much more organised" comes to mind, for example?

Rod


Sorry. I usually speak in terms of a cyclone's organization - I'll make sure to point that out from now on. I never intend to offend anyone with my posts.

But yeah, it's indeed bad news for anyone in the area that Monica is forecast to pass over. Hopefully it won't get any stronger before it makes landfall.
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#49 Postby Coredesat » Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:29 am

18/0833 UTC 13.4S 146.4E T4.0/4.0 MONICA

Image
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:49 am

Image

IT'S LOOKING LIKE MONICA WANTS TO EXPLODE!!!
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#51 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:56 am

Latest advisory from TCWC Darwin:

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060418/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MONICA
NR: 06
PSN: S1300 E14536
MOV: W 10KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 70KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 18/1800 S1258 E14437
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 19/0000 S1257 E14336
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 19/0600 S1259 E14243
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 19/1200 S1300 E14152
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 50KT
NXT MSG: 20060418/1800Z
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#52 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:25 am

70kts, upgraded.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1310 UTC 18 April 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals
centred at 1200 UTC near 13.0 south 145.6 east moving west at 10 knots. Position
good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds greater than 34 knots within 120 nm of the centre.
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre.
High to very high seas on heavy swells.

Forecast positions

At 190000 UTC near 13.0 S 143.6 E with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum
winds near the centre to 85 knots.

At 191200 UTC overland near 13.0 S 141.9 E with central pressure 985 hPa and
maximum winds near the centre to 50 knots.

Monica is expected to move west over the Gulf of Carpentaria and reintensify
during the following 24 hours.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#53 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:22 am

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over Cape York Peninsula north of
Cooktown are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal..


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:58pm on Tuesday the 18th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Torres
Strait and Cape Flattery, extending across Cape York Peninsula to all areas
north of Pormpuraaw.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current south to a line from Cooktown on the east coast to
Kowanyama on the west coast. A CYCLONE WATCH has also been issued for Northern
Territory coastal and island communities between Groote Eylandt and Elcho Island
including Nhulunbuy.

At 10 pm EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, was centred near
latitude
13.0 south longitude 145.6 east, which is 280 kilometres north of Cooktown and
230 kilometres east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving west at about
18 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify further overnight and continue
moving on a general westward track. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts above 130 km/h
may develop between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery including Lizard Island
tonight, and should extend onto the coast between Torres Strait and Cape
Melville from early Wednesday morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Monica with wind gusts up to 220 km/hr is expected
to cross the coast in the general area of Lockhart River late Wednesday morning.


Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to continue moving westwards across Cape
York Peninsula later Wednesday and into the Gulf of Carpentaria early on
Thursday. Gales may develop about the Northern Territory coast between Groote
Eylandt and Elcho Island, including Nhulunbuy, late Thursday night.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 3, for 10 pm EST Tuesday.
Central Pressure : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.0 degrees south
longitude 145.6 degrees east
230 km east of Lockhart River.
Recent Movement : West at 18 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 75 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 180 kilometres per hour, and INTENSIFYING.

People in communities in Torres Strait and over Cape York Peninsula north of a
line from Pormpuraaw to Cape Flattery should complete preparations quickly and
be prepared to shelter in a safe place.









Coastal residents between Cape Grenville and Cape Melville are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to rise steadily up to a level significantly above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas extending some way inland.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

People in the watch area should consider what action they will need to take if
the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 2 am EST
Wednesday. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available
from your local Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next warning will be issued at 2 am EST Wednesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

LOOKS LIKE MONICA MAY REDEVELOP AFTER IT CROSSES OVER LAND INTO NEW WATERS!
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:22 am

Image

FULL THROTTLE!!!
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:25 am

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.3S 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.4S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.4S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.1S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 145.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A FLUCTUATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. TC
23P HAS MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY STEADY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON THIS COURSE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CAPE YORK. THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 23P WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE INTENSITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER IT
SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT TAU 18 DUE TO PASSAGE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z AND 191500Z.


INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE JTWC CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVERLAND. I'M NOT A PROFESSIONAL METEOROLOGIST YET, BUT I WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS, IT SEEMS THAT WOULD BE A DOUBLE PUNCH FOR AUSTRALIA.
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#56 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:25 am

Now this is starting to remind me of Ingrid of last year when she crossed and did some funky stuff. Didn't ingrid actually make 3 landfalls?
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#57 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:25 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Now this is starting to remind me of Ingrid of last year when she crossed and did some funky stuff. Didn't ingrid actually make 3 landfalls?


4. :eek:
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:27 am

HURAKAN wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Now this is starting to remind me of Ingrid of last year when she crossed and did some funky stuff. Didn't ingrid actually make 3 landfalls?


4. :eek:


Image

IF YOU COUNT CAREFULLY, YOU MAY POINT OUT EVEN 6 LANDFALLS (NOT INCLUDED AS A LOW).
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#59 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:34 am

What a freak!!! :eek: :eek:
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#60 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Apr 18, 2006 11:11 am

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

LOOKING GOOD! HOPEFULLY, NO DEATHS WILL BE REPORTED AS AND AFTER MONICA ROARS ASHORE!
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