Hey guys It seems that the relatively small windfield of Monica will help maintain intensity of the cyclone by minimizing friction with land....
and this theory is consistent with the latest forecast by JTWC....
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, DECREASING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. LAND
EFFECTS WILL THEN BEGIN TO BRING DOWN THE INTENSITY FROM TAU 36
THROUGH TAU 48. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN
THE LATER TAUS AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN AUST-
RALIA CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z AND 241500Z.//