Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[senorpepr]

I think with the issue if the storm is or not a super typhoon we have left out of the discussion the fact that there is a major typhoon heading toward Hong Kong.

Well... I think most people agree with the fact that it's headed that way. There is not much to discuss with that. It's not like we can collectively move the storm away from Hong Kong. It's an unfortunate fact that we have to accept.

[senorpepr]

I think they should be used as a unoffical souce like the NWHHC. NO REDUCING IT.

The problem is... it's always been unofficial, but everyone tends to accept it as the truth anyway. Another thing to keep in mind... a majority of the forecasters there don't have meteorology degrees. A majority of them aren't as dedicated to the meteorology field as most in here. I don't mean to sound rude, but it's true. Most of these forecasters never wanted to be a forecaster, but they either was assigned to become on or saw "weather forecaster" as a job when they enlisted and thought "that should be fun."

The JTWC forecasts should have reduced-access like most of the other DoD weather products out there.

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38&start=0




Thread #1.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 05&start=0



Thread #2.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 05&start=0



Thread #3.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 35&start=0



Thread #4.

Another thread this one #5 about Chanchu.

[CHRISTY]

We have had alot of CAT4'S and CAT5 in 2006 i wonder if this is part of the intence cycle that we will probably be under for the forseeable future,it also seems to me its like its a worldwide thing now...are we next?

Here's a IR pic of CHANCHU from the new SAT page.

[cheezyWXguy]

is the larger eye the hole in the purple and theres still a pinhole eye or is that the present eye with no hints at an ERC

[whereverwx]

It won't be long until the sun is fully out... it will be interesting to see what the visible images display; even though it has a cataract (the eye is still cloudy).

[senorpepr]

New data from JMA: ~103KT (1-min) and 935mb. It's forecast to reach ~114KT and 915mb within the next 24 hours.

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 14.1N 115.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 16.9N 114.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 170000UTC 20.5N 114.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 180000UTC 24.0N 116.5E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[HURAKAN]

Traffic webcams of Hong Kong.

http://traffic.td.gov.hk/SwitchCenter.do

[cycloneye]

Hong Kong Radar



You can follow the eye of Chanchu as it gets close to the radar area at Hong Kong.

[Jim Cantore]

I find this intensity forcast quite intresting

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200602.html

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS AMAZING!!!

[senorpepr]

Now bad for 8 hours ago! Imagine what that would look like now...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pretty Amazing...

[JonathanBelles]

when is the shear expected to take effect?

[Theo]

LOOKS AMAZING!!!

Yes, it does look amazing. According to my astromet calculations, this typhoon will get stronger. Lunar maximum is Tuesday, Wednesday. The atmospheric tides will be strong with this close lunar perigee.

[senorpepr]

However... there is a cold front affecting the storm now... and it will only get worse.

[SouthFloridawx]

Does the southern side of this typhoon appear to be the more intense side or is it just me.

[Jim Cantore]

Does the southern side of this typhoon appear to be the more intense side or is it just me.

I'm starting to get that impression too

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg


The eye is clearing out...O shot!

[Derek Ortt]

on the IR, the eye remains very poorly defined.

This, combined with the microwave pass, leads credence to the cat 3 designation. 135KT is outlandish, IMO