Tropical Storm Alberto

#1761 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:21 pm

I think Alberto is going to have one last gasp of convection here before the night is over.

#1762 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:42 pm

strong feederband is getting ready to push into coastal Pinellas County within the next hour. Should have wind gusts to 40mph+

#1763 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:00 pm

Wxman57, the slosh model disagrees with you, or did earlier today. I understand what you are saying concerning the winds, but they have been blowing at least somewhat against/toward/parallel the coast and "into" some of the bays for a while. Will this not produce at least some surge(or is that the set up tide you are referring to?)?

What is the slosh model based on and why would it be so different with a storm heading NE into the W coast of FL? Trying tounderstand all of it here, because I would think the slosh model takes most of the effects that would cause surge into account.

Cyclenall · #1764 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:13 pm

The NHC still thinks this will become a hurricane before landfall. So that means all of you people who think it doesn't have a chance needs to talk to the NHC about it to figure it all out. The current strength is held at 60 knots. Sweet, this is weird.

Noles2006 · #1765 Postby **Noles2006** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:15 pm

I'm speechless. It definitely has a better radar presentation than satellite presentation... but they still think it'll reach 'Cane status... we'll see... I'm sure interested in what I will be waking up to in about 9 hours...

caneman · #1766 Postby **caneman** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:19 pm

This puppy has powerful core.

clfenwi · #1767 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:21 pm

The big 700 mb flt wind referenced in the discussion occurred IVO 29.5N 83.5 W. during the 01Z hour.

There's an ob station 14 nm northwest of there (KTNF1 at 29.8N /83.6 W). During the 01Z hour the highest winds recorded were 15 knots

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KTNF1

???

CHRISTY · #1768 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:21 pm

Cyclenall · #1769 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:21 pm

Noles2006 wrote:I'm speechless. It definitely has a better radar presentation than satellite presentation... but they still think it'll reach 'Cane status... we'll see... I'm sure interested in what I will be waking up to in about 9 hours...

It's like we wake up to a Category 2 hurricane that started moving west for no reason at all and CNN is going nuts over it :eek:

. Nah, that's near impossible but something tells me Alberto has one more trick before his show is done.

CHRISTY · #1770 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:22 pm

Website · #1771 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:23 pm

clfenwi wrote:The big 700 mb flt wind referenced in the discussion occurred IVO 29.5N 83.5 W. during the 01Z hour.

There's an ob station 14 nm northwest of there (KTNF1 at 29.8N /83.6 W). During the 01Z hour the highest winds recorded were 15 knots

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KTNF1

???

That's pathetic.

#1772 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:23 pm

It is the best example of what shear can do to a storm I have ever seen!! Latest satellite pics I have seen show all of the convection far from the core(subtropical?) I find it difficult to believe that it has any core looking at the sats, but the HH have been in there all day and there obviously is a core. Not sure I want to know how strong Alberto would have gotten if the shear hadn't been present!!!

#1773 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:26 pm

wxman57 -- I respect your knowledge, but are you taking into consideration that Alberto is supposed to hit at high tide and the full moon?

#1774 Postby **mvtrucking** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:28 pm

CHRISTY wrote:

Is that even possible with a small weak storm like this?

#1775 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:28 pm

mvtrucking wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:

Is that even possible with a small weak storm like this?

Actually it is because it is very shallow in that bay an very surge prone....

robbielyn · #1776 Postby **robbielyn** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:30 pm

fci wrote:
johnq1954 wrote:
sponger wrote:This storm has been full of surprises. Last nights flare up was not predicted to happen. Still, its moving out of the loop current so I think even maintaining intensity would be impressive.

Imagine what we would be looking at if there was no shear or dry air to inhibit it.

I could be wrong, but the most significant graphic I've seen of the conditions inhibiting this storm is this one. I mean look at how dry it is west of Alberto.

That explains why we have no wind not much rain in hernando. We have some rain yes but not that much

Noles2006 · #1777 Postby **Noles2006** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:30 pm

boca_chris -- very right. With Dennis, even though it hit out near Pensacola, that bay had a storm surge of 10+ feet. They're expecting 8 feet along the Wakulla County coastline for Alberto...

Cyclenall · #1778 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:31 pm

People were saying this had a 0% chance at becoming a hurricane. The NHC doesn't think so, 70% in 12 hours.

Noles2006 · #1779 Postby **Noles2006** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:32 pm

I still don't see it, Cycle... we'll see.

Coredesat · #1780 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:32 pm

This thing CAN'T still be tropical.

Tropical Storm Alberto

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