Tropical Storm Beryl

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Rainband

#61 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:55 am

storms in NC wrote:It looks like it is trying to wrap around the center and fireing up a little? Or am I seeing things?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
Use visable, it's more accurate :wink:
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#62 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:56 am

ncdowneast wrote:on the contrary even tho its disorganized seems the system is consolidating and seems to have more overall convection even tho its not terrbily organized convection.


If you are looking for this thing to bomb out - it is highly unlikely it will anytime soon. Now could there be slow development into a depression? Yes but the key word here is WEAK and that this system is not currently forecasted to become anything major at this time. We should all be in stand-by mode and just monitor it but there is nothing to get concerned with at this time.
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#63 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:00 pm

Rainband wrote:
storms in NC wrote:It looks like it is trying to wrap around the center and fireing up a little? Or am I seeing things?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
Use visable, it's more accurate :wink:
For example, you can use this high-powered visible here: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10 I like it anyways...:lol:
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#64 Postby curtadams » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:01 pm

ncdowneast wrote:on the contrary even tho its disorganized seems the system is consolidating and seems to have more overall convection even tho its not terrbily organized convection.

I disagree. I think the convection *is* terribly organized. :P
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#65 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:04 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:on the contrary even tho its disorganized seems the system is consolidating and seems to have more overall convection even tho its not terrbily organized convection.


If you are looking for this thing to bomb out - it is highly unlikely it will anytime soon. Now could there be slow development into a depression? Yes but the key word here is WEAK and that this system is not currently forecasted to become anything major at this time. We should all be in stand-by mode and just monitor it but there is nothing to get concerned with at this time.


not looking for this to bomb out but having lived here my whole life i am fully aware of the power of the gulfstream.It ramped bertha up from 85 to 105 in just 1 advisory and it did bomb out Alex and if Gaston had more time he would have gotten worse too.Being aware of the potential fuel and what that can do i'm not thinking its going to bomb but always watchful just in case.

And of note Katrina originally was NOT forecast to become a hurricane before hitting the east coast of Florida but we all saw what happened!
Last edited by shaggy on Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#66 Postby Kennethb » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:05 pm

Still too early in the season for quick development.
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Rainband

#67 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:13 pm

Also pressures remain high and the front is still hanging there.
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#68 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:14 pm

ncdowneast wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:on the contrary even tho its disorganized seems the system is consolidating and seems to have more overall convection even tho its not terrbily organized convection.


If you are looking for this thing to bomb out - it is highly unlikely it will anytime soon. Now could there be slow development into a depression? Yes but the key word here is WEAK and that this system is not currently forecasted to become anything major at this time. We should all be in stand-by mode and just monitor it but there is nothing to get concerned with at this time.


not looking for this to bomb out but having lived here my whole life i am fully aware of the power of the gulfstream.It ramped bertha up from 85 to 105 in just 1 advisory and it did bomb out Alex and if Gaston had more time he would have gotten worse too.Being aware of the potential fuel and what that can do i'm not thinking its going to bomb but always watchful just in case.

And of note Katrina originally was NOT forecast to become a hurricane before hitting the east coast of Florida but we all saw what happened!


I agree, we all know here in South Florida if Katrina had 24 more hours over the Gulfstream it would be a much different story here....
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#69 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:14 pm

Kennethb wrote:Still too early in the season for quick development.


the waters are warm and shear is not to bad so i am not saying this is going to become some crazy cat 3 or anything but just simply saying that the gulfstream is a powerful fuel just like the loop current in the gulf and if this was over the gulf then people would be screaming "watchout"
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#70 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:16 pm

ncdowneast wrote:
Kennethb wrote:Still too early in the season for quick development.


the waters are warm and shear is not to bad so i am not saying this is going to become some crazy cat 3 or anything but just simply saying that the gulfstream is a powerful fuel just like the loop current in the gulf and if this was over the gulf then people would be screaming "watchout"


This likely would not do such, but it could become a tropical storm very quickly.
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#71 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:17 pm

Here's the latest prob:

Forecast formation probabilities
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#72 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:21 pm

on the aircraft recon for the day 1 outlook they have it as an investigation of invest but the day 2 outlook says cyclone so i am not familiar with the wording of recon jargon so does that mean they expect a storm by day 2?
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#73 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:22 pm

curtadams wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:on the contrary even tho its disorganized seems the system is consolidating and seems to have more overall convection even tho its not terrbily organized convection.

I disagree. I think the convection *is* terribly organized. :P


Nothing more can be expected at this point in time!!!
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#74 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:22 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Here's the latest prob:

Forecast formation probabilities


I changed the big graphic to hypertext link to not have to scroll in the thread.
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#75 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:25 pm

ncdowneast wrote:on the aircraft recon for the day 1 outlook they have it as an investigation of invest but the day 2 outlook says cyclone so i am not familiar with the wording of recon jargon so does that mean they expect a storm by day 2?


No, that's just standard procedure.
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#76 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:26 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Here's the latest prob:

Forecast formation probabilities
By the way...dont forget to mention the time frame for that formation prob: Probability of TC Formation within 24Hrs
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#77 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:34 pm

Gotta stress the need to monitor this system...

Image
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#78 Postby Regit » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:35 pm

Well, it's nice to have model agreement. :lol: That's about the least agreement you'll ever see.
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:45 pm

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 32.0 75.3 190./ 4.1
6 32.3 74.9 50./ 4.4
12 32.3 74.8 80./ .9



12z GFDL has it alive for only 12 hours.Also it has it crawling.
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#80 Postby storms in NC » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:47 pm

NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.
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