Tropical Storm Beryl

[SouthFloridawx]

By the way as an FYI, I did NOT read the forecast discussion before I posted my updated forecast if ya'll were thinking I did.

[cheezyWXguy]

take a look at the IR and you wont believe how differrent it looks

[Eyewall]

for a good look at the direction its headed
look at the radar from NYC
from the looks of it, i doubt i could miss land
it would have to make a really sharp turn

[abryant.ma]

she does look pretty different compared to last night.

[abryant.ma]

is it me or does she looks really like big and ominous on the radar out of Upton, NY?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[conestogo_flood]

It looks like a hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

is it me or does she looks really like big and ominous on the radar out of Upton, NY?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I know what you mean...It just shows that there doesnt have to be massively deep convection to get pretty heavy pretty heavy rain...look at all the oranges and yellows...also I think I see an eyewall

[Thunder44]

Yes, it does look ominou but I don't believe it's a hurricane. I've been a getting a few sprinkles and showers this morning here along Far Rockaway, Queens. I see some heavier showers or thunderstorms heading this directon from a feeder band.

[abryant.ma]

of course it's not a hurricane. haha. i was just saying that it's still a fairly organized storm and is pretty impressive on radar.

[wxman57]

I"m measuring a current heading of 025 degrees. If the heading doesn't change, 025 degrees puts Beryl into southern Rhode Island. But I do think it'll be gradually turning. NHC may have it too far east, though. It would have to average an 050 deg heading from the current position to hit the NHC 24 hour position, or an 059 deg heading from the 12-hr forecast position.

I'm not sure why the NHC is so insitent that it's going to make the turn. Their track near the right of all guidance. However, the CONU (consensus model) isn't far from the NHC track, and that model isn't too bad, generally. In any case, some of the squalls will be impacting southeast MA tonight. Could see a few pockets of 40-45 mph sustained wind there and higher gusts. Even eastern Long Island and southern Rhode Island may see a few outer squalls.

Here are the latest model plots:

[Eyewall]

There could be some 80 mph gusts though the north eyewall-like edge looks organized

[Patrick99]

I cant believe how much better organized beryl is than alberto, yet weaker

Alberto had a good little ball of deep convection - not seeing any reds or even yellows on the IR loop with this one. There were colder cloud tops off the FL coast this morning.

[wxman57]

Here's a new satellite image with surface plots:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl16.gif

[JonathanBelles]

looks like the south part is falling apart

[wxman57]

And a nice McIDAS image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl17.gif

[wxman57]

looks like the south part is falling apart

Good observation. Watch where the convection concentrates today. Remember the old rule of thumb -- a storm will "follow the convection". That means look at what side of the storm has the strongest thunderstorms. It's an indication that upper winds are blowing in that direction, and the storm will possibly track in that direction. Not always, though.

[Eyewall]

well no eye there..

[Eyewall]

I think that the north side's convection is being enhanced by the cold front
i saw the same thing happen with Wilma

[SouthFloridawx]

looks like the south part is falling apart

Good observation. Watch where the convection concentrates today. Remember the old rule of thumb -- a storm will "follow the convection". That means look at what side of the storm has the strongest thunderstorms. It's an indication that upper winds are blowing in that direction, and the storm will possibly track in that direction. Not always, though.

As of the 11am advisory they have the storm moving at the NNE at 13 mph... I think this thing has no choice but to make landfall in western mass. I know they are expecting a turn to the NE but, I don't think it's turning fast enough.

I also noticed the erosion of convection on the southern side of the storm..

Usually in an extra-tropical storm the majority of the convection is on the north and northeast side correct?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like a Mass. Landfall is now obvious, but the question is: Will she make landfall as a Tropical or Extratropical system?