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storms in NC
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#21 Postby storms in NC » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:09 am

That is high
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#22 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:10 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

I'm not sure if this is what they mean, but in the next 24 hrs the NHC forecast this to become a Low Pressure system.
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#23 Postby cpdaman » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:25 am

I thought the swirl near 31.5 75 west was the low they were watching (the invest) however on the loop it places the low over A SECOND AREA more ESE of cape hatteras near 34.5 71 west.

AM i MISSING SOMETING here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
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#24 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:48 am

This is a piece from the overnight discussion form Morehead city NC,


HPC IS MENTIONING MODELS SHOWING PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A FEW MODELS DEVELOP THIS LOW
AND BRING IT OVER EASTERN NC WED. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL CONT
CURRENT FCST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE

If this does move towards any coastline on the SE coast the concern is how fast can it develop.Storms in the past over the GS have developed quickly.Most notable were Alex and Gaston.So some concern should be put into this system if it really starts to go ahead with development.
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#25 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:51 am

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

According to jeff masters that low above 97L should be Suptropical Depression 2.
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#26 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:52 am

I posted that in the other thread before this became Invest 97L, I thought it was pretty interesting to and am waiting for the next update, which could be anytime between now and 5 P.M. :lol: Its going to be interesting to say the least...it may develop, it may not...hard to say...
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#27 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:59 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=419&tstamp=200607

According to jeff masters that low above 97L should be Suptropical Depression 2.


He didn't say that exactly, he said to his eye it looks like a possible subtropical system but i'm sure he agrees with the NHC that it's a conversative decision to leave it un-classified.


However I do think it's a STS.
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#28 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:12 am

I'm going to scream...they still have not updated the recon schedule... :grrr: :lol:
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:13 am

20 KNHC 171511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONTINUES A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OR DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GALE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT
220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA... IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 MPH. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNTO1
KWBC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME
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#30 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:14 am

Dang...Cycloneye...you beat me!!! :lol:
Last edited by brunota2003 on Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#31 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:14 am

cycloneye wrote:20 KNHC 171511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONTINUES A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OR DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GALE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT
220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA... IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 MPH. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNTO1
KWBC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME


wow! looks like we have a TD in the making folks!!!
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#32 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:17 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 17 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF SC COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 18/1530Z
D. 31.5N 075.5W
E. 18/1730Z TO 19/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 19/0300Z
D. 32.0N 075.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPES AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
CDL
Last edited by brunota2003 on Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#33 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:19 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Floater #1 on the NHC site is now on 97L.
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#34 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:22 am

waters on some of the offshore buoys are running 83.7 or better so its a growing concern for the EC IF and i mean IF it develops!Alex and Gaston both ramped up very quickly and if this one does the same there may not be a ton of time to prepare or evac the Outer banks if it threatens anyone!

Alot of times people look way out into the Atlantic for systems that may threaten them but the real possibility of a "homegrown" system that explodes is a bigger concern because of the lessened warning times!
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#35 Postby ThunderMate » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:24 am

If this developes is it possible it will track up along The Outer Banks and SE VA. where i am? :eek:
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#36 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:25 am

Possibly, the NHC said this could slowly move northward which would run it right into the East Coast.
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#37 Postby ThunderMate » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:26 am

This week should be fun then! :D
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#38 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:28 am

ThunderMate wrote:This week should be fun then! :D
Yea...I'm sitting here near Morehead City, a weak Tropical Storm would be no big deal, but if it bombs...yikes!
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#39 Postby storms in NC » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:30 am

ncdowneast wrote:waters on some of the offshore buoys are running 83.7 or better so its a growing concern for the EC IF and i mean IF it develops!Alex and Gaston both ramped up very quickly and if this one does the same there may not be a ton of time to prepare or evac the Outer banks if it threatens anyone!

Alot of times people look way out into the Atlantic for systems that may threaten them but the real possibility of a "homegrown" system that explodes is a bigger concern because of the lessened warning times!
NCdowneast, I don't think it is to move west any but to stay off shore. I don't think it would be much to have people to evac. It would be more of a rain maker.if it did move on shore. But that is just my thoughts cause right now it is not doing any thing. No flare ups that I can see.
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#40 Postby ThunderMate » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:30 am

lol...i know...i remember watching Alex and waiting for a good hurricane but unfortunately it missed me to the south just barely and all i got was like 25 mph gusts with little rain...lol
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