Tropical Storm Beryl

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Jim Cantore

#901 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:53 pm

She's a fighter, but cooler waters will win out, shes still in waters in the high 70s I believe, and Epsilon strengthened in those conditions.
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Eyewall

#902 Postby Eyewall » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:56 pm

just some convection needed and we could have a really nice storm
but i doubt we will see any explosions
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#903 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:58 pm

Epsilon was a weak hurricane in high shear and waters around the low to mid 70's.
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#904 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:59 pm

very similar
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#905 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:00 pm

similar but upper air temps over Epsilon were actually very low at the time so it could get away with lower SST's as the net lapse rates were still pretty similar as to what they'd normally be in the tropics, also shear was at higher lvels, Epsilon was a shallow system and so missed the worst of it it seems.
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Eyewall

#906 Postby Eyewall » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:03 pm

they better put some new warnings and stuff cause this things gettin close
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Jim Cantore

#907 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:08 pm

We got some dry air over my area, not very dry though.
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#908 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:10 pm

it looks like it might be turning NE now... definitely looking unhealthy on IR. still an impressive visible though, some convection is trying to refire on the east side of the center.
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#909 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:14 pm

On radar it still looks like it's moving NNE.
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#910 Postby abryant.ma » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:19 pm

hmm convection developing in right-hand quadranth????
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#911 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:42 pm

Thunder44 wrote:On radar it still looks like it's moving NNE.


I measure a movement toward 041 deg. from 1725Z-1825Z. That would be NE. Speed 12.5 kts.
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#912 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:01 pm

SHe's starting to fire up a bit in her NE Quad.
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#913 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:04 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:SHe's starting to fire up a bit in her NE Quad.


That's an indication of increasing SW-W winds aloft. Core appears to be spreading out, too, a sign that the transition to ET may be starting.
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#914 Postby abryant.ma » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:07 pm

hmmm. the "eye" almost looks like a bowl from the RGB loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html
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#915 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:13 pm

Really lacking in convection now:

Image
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Eyewall

#916 Postby Eyewall » Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:28 pm

I'm telling you guys.. its gonna be down to like 30 knots in the next 12-18 hrs.
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#917 Postby abryant.ma » Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:13 pm

hmm looks like the shear is starting to effect Beryl cuz its blowling all the tops off the thudnerstorms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html
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Coredesat

#918 Postby Coredesat » Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:29 pm

Definitely looks like the center is becoming exposed again. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered the intensity to 40 or 35 kt at 8 PM, although I doubt they will, since it's an intermediate advisory and all.
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#919 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:38 pm

The latest Recon supports holding it though (FL 54 kt)...
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#920 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jul 20, 2006 7:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The latest Recon supports holding it though (FL 54 kt)...


They also measured a 56mph wind on the surface right before they left . . . which almost supports an upgrade.
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