Tropical Storm Beryl

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#81 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:51 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

this buoy started the day with a WSW wind and it has now swung to the ENE so the low clearly drifted south past this buoy today.Theres no doubt about it that theres a weak LLC its just a matter of if it develops or not and i think a TD or atleast a sub-TD is really looking like a possibilty now.I wish that buoy had pressure tendencies to see what the pressure was!
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#82 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:58 pm

storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.
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#83 Postby Regit » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:00 pm

skysummit wrote:
storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.


That comment wasn't saying people don't know what the Gulf Stream is. The point being made was that some don't realize the effect it has on tropical systems.
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#84 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:02 pm

Regit wrote:
skysummit wrote:
storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.


That comment wasn't saying people don't know what the Gulf Stream is. The point being made was that some don't realize the effect it has on tropical systems.


Well, if people know what the gulf stream is, then people most likely also know what can happen to tropical systems.
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#85 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:04 pm

Regit wrote:
skysummit wrote:
storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.


That comment wasn't saying people don't know what the Gulf Stream is. The point being made was that some don't realize the effect it has on tropical systems.


True the Gulf stream is there but it is actually warmer farther south along the southeast coast of Florida and the Florida Straits. It is rare to have a hurricane of CAT 4 strength or greater that far north along the EC (there is another thread that discusses the issues opened by Derek Ortt) - not that this system has any chance to get close to a CAT 4 but just an FYI.

I can assure you that more systems have ended up being weaker than stronger in the location where 97L is forming. If 97L were farther south in The Florida straits, the chances of a "bomb out" are higher.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#86 Postby storms in NC » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:05 pm

Regit wrote:
skysummit wrote:
storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.


That comment wasn't saying people don't know what the Gulf Stream is. The point being made was that some don't realize the effect it has on tropical systems.


Thank you. That is what I was saying.
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#87 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:07 pm

yeah Alex Floyd Bonnie Fran Bertha Hazel Isabel Gloria Were all itty bitty just Cat 2's or 3's so this area of the atlantic is just a spot for weak storms!
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#88 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:11 pm

ncdowneast wrote:yeah Alex Floyd Bonnie Fran Bertha Hazel Isabel Gloria Were all itty bitty just Cat 2's or 3's so this area of the atlantic is just a spot for weak storms!


How many of the storms actually were borne in the area where 97L is right now? For example, Floyd mustered its energy deeper in the tropics before it even got to that lattitude. Of course, I am not downplaying CAT 2/3 storms - they are horrible and I do agree the Gulf stream is powerful even at the NC/SC lattitudes. One advantage that the NC/SC coasts have is that the Gulf stream is much farther offshore that at lower lattitudes, allowing for extremely powerful systems to weaken before actually making landfall...
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#89 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:14 pm

your post didn't specify whether your talking about forming storms or storms that have already formed but instead i got the impression that since the waters up there cant support a cat 4 that you meant all storms whether forming or moving in after forming way out!

I agree that most storms that form there have ahard time making it to cat 2 status but it can happen as with alex so all i am saying is that as long as there is a system there it needs to be watched and that it CAN become a cane if conditions are right!
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#90 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Regit wrote:
skysummit wrote:
storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.


That comment wasn't saying people don't know what the Gulf Stream is. The point being made was that some don't realize the effect it has on tropical systems.


True the Gulf stream is there but it is actually warmer farther south along the southeast coast of Florida and the Florida Straits. It is rare to have a hurricane of CAT 4 strength or greater that far north along the EC (there is another thread that discusses the issues opened by Derek Ortt) - not that this system has any chance to get close to a CAT 4 but just an FYI.

I can assure you that more systems have ended up being weak than strong in the location where 97L is forming. If 97L were farther south in The Florida straits I would be more concerned for a "bomb out"
Thats not the point though, it does not have to be a Cat 4 to wreck your life...Floyd was not a Cat 4 at landfall, neither was Carol, Edna, Hazel, Bertha, Fran, Isabel, Alex (which didnt make landfall, but was a Cat 3 way further north than here thanks to the GS), Charley, or Ophelia (also didnt make landfall) but each one of those storms mantained or strengthend over the GS thanks to the warm waters...and go ahead and tell me none of those storms were not a big deal...tell that to the people killed and the people who lost everything...tell them the GS doesnt matter and that just because the storms dont bomb over the GS that they are always weak and pitiful...that is all I have to say on the matter...
~Another Fellow Eastern North Carolinian~
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#91 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:17 pm

My goodness....it almost seems like some of these posters will be upset if this little Invest doesn't amount to anything.
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#92 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:19 pm

skysummit wrote:My goodness....it almost seems like some of these posters will be upset if this little Invest doesn't amount to anything.
I wont be upset...I am just getting tired of people down playing the effects of the GS...did I ever say I would be upset? no...actually I would be quite happy...(sorry if I got personal, I dont think I did though...)
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#93 Postby storms in NC » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:20 pm

ncdowneast wrote:yeah Alex Floyd Bonnie Fran Bertha Hazel Isabel Gloria Were all itty bitty just Cat 2's or 3's so this area of the atlantic is just a spot for weak storms!
ncdowneast, I would give it up. Some day they will eat their words. Let's just sit in the back seat and watch. I do have to say some thing My mom and dad lived in fort Myers for 25 years and not 1 hurrican hit there till chairley came. I lived in Panama City for 9 years and not 1 hurrican then opal. But then I moved back home to NC and I have been though what 6 or 7 now.
Last edited by storms in NC on Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#94 Postby TS Zack » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:20 pm

Many storms do strengthen over the Gulf Stream, actually all of them strengthen at some point or another. Still we are not talking about a developed system moving over the Gulf Stream.

The problem this thing will have is it will not be completely tropical since it is being aided by a front. Upper-level conditions will be marginally favorable through its development stages and beyond. Finally, it will continue to sit in a weakness, which is not the best environment for tropical systems.

Also, look at the dry air.

This thing could develop without a doubt but lets just see if it does that before we go on talking about strength. It most likely will not cause harm to anyone except the poor fish.
Last edited by TS Zack on Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#95 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:20 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Regit wrote:
skysummit wrote:
storms in NC wrote:NCdowneast, I know what you are saying. the people that don't live here don't understand what can happen over the GS here on the coast of NC and SC. Yes we can get a TS out to this in a wink of a eye.


LOL...come on. People know what the Gulf Stream is. It's not only along NC and SC.


That comment wasn't saying people don't know what the Gulf Stream is. The point being made was that some don't realize the effect it has on tropical systems.


True the Gulf stream is there but it is actually warmer farther south along the southeast coast of Florida and the Florida Straits. It is rare to have a hurricane of CAT 4 strength or greater that far north along the EC (there is another thread that discusses the issues opened by Derek Ortt) - not that this system has any chance to get close to a CAT 4 but just an FYI.

I can assure you that more systems have ended up being weak than strong in the location where 97L is forming. If 97L were farther south in The Florida straits I would be more concerned for a "bomb out"
Thats not the point though, it does not have to be a Cat 4 to wreck your life...Floyd was not a Cat 4 at landfall, neither was Carol, Edna, Hazel, Bertha, Fran, Isabel, Alex (which didnt make landfall, but was a Cat 3 way further north than here thanks to the GS), Charley, or Ophelia (also didnt make landfall) but each one of those storms mantained or strengthend over the GS thanks to the warm waters...and go ahead and tell me none of those storms were not a big deal...tell that to the people killed and the people who lost everything...tell them the GS doesnt matter and that just because the storms dont bomb over the GS that they are always weak and pitiful...that is all I have to say on the matter...
~Another Fellow Eastern North Carolinian~


I agree and certainly any CAT hurricane , even 1s and 2 can be fatal. Certainly the gulf stream off NC/SC can causing some rapid strengthening so we should monitor this area....
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#96 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:22 pm

skysummit wrote:My goodness....it almost seems like some of these posters will be upset if this little Invest doesn't amount to anything.


well i for one have seen my fair share of tropical weather and do not care one way or the other if it develops or not.We could actually use a little rain and clouds to cool these hot days down some.As long as it stays weak.

However allow me to get myself in trouble by saying that whenever there is a little system that threatens either florida or the gulf coast this board is bombarded by hype at times.The mods do a great job in controlling this but even yesterday when this system was first mentioned immediatly post came out about this being a florida threat.The poeple along the gulf coast and florida are quick to dismiss any storm north of 30N as nothing but a small nuisance when in fact they can be serious for people along the east coast!
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#97 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:24 pm

ncdowneast wrote:
skysummit wrote:My goodness....it almost seems like some of these posters will be upset if this little Invest doesn't amount to anything.


well i for one have seen my fair share of tropical weather and do not care one way or the other if it develops or not.We could actually use a little rain and clouds to cool these hot days down some.As long as it stays weak.

However allow me to get myself in trouble by saying that whenever there is a little system that threatens either florida or the gulf coast this board is bombarded by hype at times.The mods do a great job in controlling this but even yesterday when this system was first mentioned immediatly post came out about this being a florida threat.The poeple along the gulf coast and florida are quick to dismiss any storm north of 30N as nothing but a small nuisance when in fact they can be serious for people along the east coast!


i do agree with you on these points - certainly there is a majority of Florida posters on this forum and many Gulf coast posters so systems threatening these areas, even if they are weak, do seem to get more attention because there are more people that could be impacted.
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#98 Postby shaggy » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:30 pm

well sadly i have to leave now to go work in a half million sq foot concrete warehouse with no AC on a day thats already at 94 degrees and getting hotter.I would much rather be here debating this with you guys.I'll be off at 1130 so maybe that will give it time to either fall apart or try to organize.You guys have a fun day looking at sat pics!
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:39 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060717 1800 060718 0600 060718 1800 060719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.0N 75.5W 30.6N 75.9W 30.4N 76.4W 30.1N 76.8W
BAMM 31.0N 75.5W 30.7N 76.3W 30.6N 77.3W 30.2N 78.4W
A98E 31.0N 75.5W 30.3N 75.5W 30.3N 75.2W 30.2N 75.5W
LBAR 31.0N 75.5W 30.5N 76.2W 30.8N 77.0W 31.4N 77.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060719 1800 060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.9N 77.3W 29.9N 78.2W 30.0N 79.2W 30.0N 79.9W
BAMM 30.1N 79.4W 30.1N 82.0W 30.4N 85.1W 30.9N 86.8W
A98E 30.2N 75.4W 29.6N 75.0W 29.2N 74.2W 29.0N 73.7W
LBAR 31.9N 78.5W 33.4N 79.8W 35.1N 78.9W 36.6N 73.3W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 50KTS 49KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.0N LONCUR = 75.5W DIRCUR = 190DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.9N LONM12 = 75.3W DIRM12 = 192DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 32.7N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Run of BAM models.

If DSHP is right this will be a 45kt storm.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#100 Postby Regit » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:40 pm

:uarrow:

Sounds like a good assumption to me. Pretty typical of the area.
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