Tropical Storm Chris

[stormtruth]

If Chris comes back where will he go? Mexico or Texas?

[MississippiHurricane]

[miamicanes177]

Yeh, I'm wondering that too O Town. Chris likes to sleep naked. Maybe he'll choose to sleep with clothes on tonight.

[Stormavoider]

The funny part is it looks better now then it did when it was a weak tropical storm. No LLC though.

We don't know that, Do we?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has it at 22.4n-78.9w at the 00:00z update..

[ronjon]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has it at 22.4n-78.9w at the 00:00z update..

That's right under the big blow up of convection. If the circulation is under there and its over water - look out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[stormtruth]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has it at 22.4n-78.9w at the 00:00z update..

Oh. That's farther west than I thought it was. Chris is moving towards the GOM pretty steadily.

[miamicanes177]

22.4N 78.9W would be right about off cuba. If not, then he is just barely on land.

[Frank P]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has it at 22.4n-78.9w at the 00:00z update..

That's right under the big blow up of convection. If the circulation is under there and its over water - look out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

actually 22.4 and 78.9 is right on/off the immediate coast of cuba, but basically under the big blow up of convection, and it still has a plethora of warm water to pull energy from.... now if an llc spins up, and this convection remains throughout the night, and it can just get the center off the island, and, and, and.... who knows???

[Cyclenall]

The funny part is it looks better now then it did when it was a weak tropical storm. No LLC though.

We don't know that, Do we?

So your saying that it's possible that Chris is still a tropical cyclone?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks it may be coming back, and if it does it could become a TS or hurricane before hitting S. Texas. However, he says if convection dies off tonight that it may be game over for Chris. I guess we shall see what happens..

Overall though, I think that anywhere from North Mexico to Central Texas should continue to monitor Chris (or what's left of him).

[Air Force Met]

Looking at the ridge...this should be Mexico bound.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18Z NAM takes Chris (or remnants) right into Brownsville in 78 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml But this could change north or south.

Basically the faster Chris moves...the further north he goes (weaker ridge). The slower he goes...the further south (stronger ridge).

[miamicanes177]

So your saying that it's possible that Chris is still a tropical cyclone?

The last time recon was in Chris they found that it had a closed circulation.

[clfenwi]

SSD's position estimate

05/2345 UTC 22.1N 78.8W TOO WEAK CHRIS

TAFB had it too weak to classify due to the center being over land.

It's a little bit less inland than the percursor to Elena, but due to it's westerly course, will get more inland, making it like Tropical Depression Baker of 1950, which regained tropical storm strength once it found water.

[stormtruth]

Have to be North of 23.something to avoid Cuba completely

[sevenleft]

Looking at the ridge...this should be Mexico bound.

I agree. Whatever capacity it is in, south of Brownsville.

The SSD and NRL fixes put the suspected LLC right on the northern coastline, maybe a bit inland.

As a broader area of low pressure now, it is possible to get a new center to form under the convection over water, if it is persistent enough.

Not likely, but another boxcar in the endless train of possibilities...

[ronjon]

Looking at the ridge...this should be Mexico bound.

I agree. Whatever capacity it is in, south of Brownsville.

The SSD and NRL fixes put the suspected LLC right on the northern coastline, maybe a bit inland.

As a broader area of low pressure now, it is possible to get a new center to form under the convection over water, if it is persistent enough.

Not likely, but another boxcar in the endless train of possibilities...

If Chris is reborn, I'm thinking that a new center would reform offshore under the deep convection. Wouldn't take much to be a TD again.

[miamicanes177]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060806 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060806 0000 060806 1200 060807 0000 060807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 78.9W 22.7N 81.1W 23.0N 83.7W 23.3N 86.8W
BAMM 22.4N 78.9W 22.9N 81.3W 23.4N 83.9W 23.9N 86.7W
A98E 22.4N 78.9W 23.1N 81.4W 23.8N 84.0W 24.5N 86.9W
LBAR 22.4N 78.9W 23.1N 81.5W 24.2N 84.2W 25.3N 86.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060808 0000 060809 0000 060810 0000 060811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 90.1W 24.0N 97.0W 25.0N 103.6W 26.5N 109.1W
BAMM 24.3N 89.8W 25.1N 96.2W 26.3N 102.1W 27.6N 106.8W
A98E 24.9N 90.4W 27.0N 97.8W 28.5N 103.5W 29.4N 105.8W
LBAR 26.5N 89.7W 28.4N 95.2W 29.8N 100.0W 31.7N 98.8W
SHIP 39KTS 48KTS 55KTS 63KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 76.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.5N LONM24 = 73.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ronjon]

Have to be North of 23.something to avoid Cuba completely

Well if you believe the NRL position its already at 22.4 N. The 5 AM NHC position was 21.5, 75.6. Its moved 0.9 N, 3.3 W since then. That's W-NW in my book.