Tropical Storm Chris

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060801 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 1200 060802 0000 060802 1200 060803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 59.8W 17.6N 61.8W 18.0N 63.7W 18.3N 65.4W
BAMM 17.2N 59.8W 18.0N 61.9W 18.8N 63.8W 19.5N 65.4W
A98E 17.2N 59.8W 18.1N 61.6W 18.9N 63.4W 19.7N 65.5W
LBAR 17.2N 59.8W 18.0N 61.7W 18.8N 63.6W 19.4N 65.5W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 41KTS 44KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 1200 060804 1200 060805 1200 060806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 67.1W 17.5N 70.3W 16.9N 74.0W 16.9N 78.1W
BAMM 19.8N 66.9W 20.0N 70.1W 20.1N 73.9W 20.5N 77.9W
A98E 20.2N 67.8W 21.9N 72.8W 23.5N 77.9W 25.5N 82.9W
LBAR 19.5N 67.5W 19.5N 71.7W 19.7N 76.5W 19.9N 80.6W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS 51KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 58.1W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z BAM Models.

[Tampa_God]

Tampa, that was what i was thinking too...and its not cause im in texas(wishcasting-which im not)

Hopefully, you don't live anywhere between the TX/LA border and South of Houston. That is where I believe Chris will hit. Also, can't seem to figure what the wind speeds will be, but the Gulf temps are mid to upper 80's, so maybe will see this storm strengthen rapidly like Katrina did, but I hope not.

[Stratusxpeye]

Tampa, that was what i was thinking too...and its not cause im in texas(wishcasting-which im not)

Hopefully, you don't live anywhere between the TX/LA border and South of Houston. That is where I believe Chris will hit. Also, can't seem to figure what the wind speeds will be, but the Gulf temps are mid to upper 80's, so maybe will see this storm strengthen rapidly like Katrina did, but I hope not.

I guess I'm confused. Living on the TX/LA Border and living souh of houston? Isn't this not possible as they are very far apart locations?

[Tampa_God]

Tampa, that was what i was thinking too...and its not cause im in texas(wishcasting-which im not)

Hopefully, you don't live anywhere between the TX/LA border and South of Houston. That is where I believe Chris will hit. Also, can't seem to figure what the wind speeds will be, but the Gulf temps are mid to upper 80's, so maybe will see this storm strengthen rapidly like Katrina did, but I hope not.

I guess I'm confused. Living on the TX/LA Border and living souh of houston? Isn't this not possible as they are very far apart locations?

Live anywhere Between

[cheezyWXguy]

i live in dallas, so luckily im not at the coast. But that would really be horrible if it bombed.

[senorpepr]

Can anyone let me in on why DELTA?

Tropical Storm DELTA Forecast Discussion

The bulletins are set up for five storms.

Storm one is assigned bulletin one and so on. Storm six is also assigned bulletin one, with storm seven as bulletin two, etc.

Delta was the last storm to use bulletin three.

The future TD 04L (whenever that comes) will use the same bulletin that Epsilon used.

[Tampa_God]

i live in dallas, so luckily im not at the coast. But that would really be horrible if it bombed.

Oh okay. So, if anything, you'll see some part of Chris.

O/T: has anyone looked at the wave ready to come off the African Coast? Looks big.

[cycloneye]

12:00z Graphic of the models.

[gatorcane]

Looks like South Florida is under the gun again folks

[Stormcenter]

Weren't "some" of the same things said about that weak TD10 that eventually became the infamous K storm of last year. I am NOT saying Chris will be anything like that K storm but only that we should NEVER write anything off based on what the models are saying many days out. Things change daily in the tropics.

[O Town]

[vaffie]

Tampa, that was what i was thinking too...and its not cause im in texas(wishcasting-which im not)

Hopefully, you don't live anywhere between the TX/LA border and South of Houston. That is where I believe Chris will hit. Also, can't seem to figure what the wind speeds will be, but the Gulf temps are mid to upper 80's, so maybe will see this storm strengthen rapidly like Katrina did, but I hope not.

You may be right Tampa, I'm not going to cross my fingers yet on this one. It hasn't even reached Puerto Rico yet. That may be the general pattern, but the odds of at least one weakness in it, a short wave, cold front--in the next 12 days--to recurve it somewhere else are pretty high in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

Tampa, that was what i was thinking too...and its not cause im in texas(wishcasting-which im not)

Hopefully, you don't live anywhere between the TX/LA border and South of Houston. That is where I believe Chris will hit. Also, can't seem to figure what the wind speeds will be, but the Gulf temps are mid to upper 80's, so maybe will see this storm strengthen rapidly like Katrina did, but I hope not.

You may be right Tampa, I'm not going to cross my fingers yet on this one. It hasn't even reached Puerto Rico yet. That may be the general pattern, but the odds of at least one weakness in it, a short wave, cold front--in the next 12 days--to recurve it somewhere else are pretty high in my opinion.

We had better hope so because almost every tropical wave this year has been steered west through South Florida or just south - I doubt it.

The Bermuda High is way too strong this year

[rockyman]

Based on the most recent models, I think the only conclusion I'd draw at this point is that Chris will most likely not escape out to sea....I know everyone wants to try to determine an eventual US landfall, but right now this is pretty useless speculation...In the meantime, we have a ton of people who are definitely in harm's way right now in the Caribbean...I'd love to see everyone discuss the threat to the Leewards, VI, PR, DR, and Haiti...there will be plenty of time to worry about the mainland in a couple of days..

[HouTXmetro]

No way in -ll this thing makes it to the W Gulf. If anything it may go as far as MS/AL coast line IMO.

[Tampa_God]

Haiti, PR and the rest should be okay. Mostly rain with this, but some landslides because of the rain. Cuba maybe need to be in the watching. If this goes between Cuba and S Florida, then it will have to be watched. But, we will have to see what the wind speeds are when it reaches that area.

[hial2]

It appears to the naked eye (using the WV loop) that the ULL north of Cuba is moving NEward ( I know, is progged to go SW)..IF it continues in that direction, will the weakness created by it be sufficient to turn Chris north and away from the east coast??

[boca]

The ULL is just sitting and spinning east of the Bahamas wouldn't that rip Chris apart since the ULL is not moving.The ULL has been their for 4 days now. What makes people think it will move anytime soon. If the ULL moves WNW like predicted it would ventilate Chris making it a 55knot storm.

[HurricaneQueen]

Great post, Rockyman. I was just about to post the same thing. We have many people in the islands to worry about before it eventually "might" hit the US. Most of the northern Leeward islands are under a Storm Warning with other under a Watch. Those are the ones in the path NOW not some hypothetical destination in the future.

Stay safe, BVIgal, Barb, irina, MJ, Luis, HUC and all the others whose names I forget right now because I am senile!!!

Lynn

[Opal storm]

Most of the models are well south of the NHC track.The ridge could push this into Mexico and this not be so much of a threat to the U.S.I'm not saying that's going to happen but it's a possibility IMO.