Tropical Storm Chris

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miamicanes177
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#5201 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:30 pm

when did these observations from recon come in?
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... XXX50.KNHC
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#5202 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:30 pm

There appears to be no LLC, just an open wave. The upper-level winds aren't too favorable for development. Very strong low to the west and another to the east. Strong high to the north. A NE jet of 40-60 kts is heading southwest toward the wave. Here's a plot of 200mb streamlines (purple), wind barbs (yellow), and a 1mb surface pressure analysis (blue). Upper lows are blue, remnants of Chris the red "L".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif
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#5203 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:30 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18Z NAM takes Chris (or remnants) right into Brownsville in 78 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml But this could change north or south.

Basically the faster Chris moves...the further north he goes (weaker ridge). The slower he goes...the further south (stronger ridge).


NAM sucks at forecasting TC's.
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#5204 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:31 pm

ronjon wrote:
stormtruth wrote:Have to be North of 23.something to avoid Cuba completely


Well if you believe the NRL position its already at 22.4 N. The 5 AM NHC position was 21.5, 75.6. Its moved 0.9 N, 3.3 W since then. That's W-NW in my book.


There is no "position" of a center. It's just a rough estimate to plug into the models to see where they would take the remnants of Chris.
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#5205 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:33 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18Z NAM takes Chris (or remnants) right into Brownsville in 78 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml But this could change north or south.

Basically the faster Chris moves...the further north he goes (weaker ridge). The slower he goes...the further south (stronger ridge).


NAM sucks at forecasting TC's.


True, but with that strong high to the north, there isn't anywhere else for this to go. Once it moves off of Cuba there won't be any daytime heating to keep the convection going, though. Let's see if there is anything left tomorrow morning.
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#5206 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:33 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:when did these observations from recon come in?
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... XXX50.KNHC


WXWXA That header means a practice mission.
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#5207 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:35 pm

Oh ok, I thought they might have snuck a fast run on us without tellin :lol:
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#5208 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:36 pm

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#5209 Postby wxwonder12 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:41 pm

I haven't been on this site all day and did not read through all the posts so forgive me if this has already been mentioned but dosen't Chris look like it is flaring up north of Central Cuba??
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#5210 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:41 pm

Is that big ULL in the northern gulf forecast to lift out? If so the steering would change and keep whatever remains of Chris moving more west or maybe even south of west. In its current position that ULL would help ventilate outflow.
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#5211 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:46 pm

Nimbus wrote:Is that big ULL in the northern gulf forecast to lift out? If so the steering would change and keep whatever remains of Chris moving more west or maybe even south of west. In its current position that ULL would help ventilate outflow.


The upper low in the western Gulf is moving west, ridge to the north is strengthening and moving west. By Monday, there will be 40-50 kt easterly winds aloft across the central Gulf. Just about the only way anything could go is to the west, toward northeast Mexico or extreme lower TX coast. But with such strong winds aloft, any low that formed would be sheared/exposed, with all convection west and southwest of the center.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif
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#5212 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:There appears to be no LLC, just an open wave. The upper-level winds aren't too favorable for development. Very strong low to the west and another to the east. Strong high to the north. A NE jet of 40-60 kts is heading southwest toward the wave. Here's a plot of 200mb streamlines (purple), wind barbs (yellow), and a 1mb surface pressure analysis (blue). Upper lows are blue, remnants of Chris the red "L".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

Is that for sometime in the future, when?
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#5213 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:51 pm

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#5214 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:53 pm

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rnbaida

#5215 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:53 pm

i am seeing a lot of convection over the WATER!!!! Could chris be coming back to life???
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#5216 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:59 pm

according to those models chis will make a rebound!

the little engine that could!
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#5217 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:00 pm

It's still holding together, as is obvious from the shape of the convection. This is nocturnal flaring.

I suspect the convection is north of Cuba because Chris has reached the southerly flow associated with the GOM ULL.

But this is definitely a contracting of the convection - which is a sign of organization (just as it pulls over Cuba).

Center relocation?
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#5218 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:01 pm

hopefully
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rnbaida

#5219 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:02 pm

If the convection doesnt die out by 2 or 3 am... we could have development and a possible recon.
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#5220 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:04 pm

Sanibel wrote:It's still holding together, as is obvious from the shape of the convection. This is nocturnal flaring.

I suspect the convection is north of Cuba because Chris has reached the southerly flow associated with the GOM ULL.

But this is definitely a contracting of the convection - which is a sign of organization (just as it pulls over Cuba).

Center relocation?



If the center did relocate more north (over water) it is fixing to hit the LPC in the very near future.....
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