Tropical Storm Chris

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Normandy
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#5241 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:25 pm

Looking at the Key West Radar I dont see anything but a big blob of showers.....but then again I can't see anything at the surface.
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#5242 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:27 pm

I don't know but that blob is moving more northwest that west.
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#5243 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:28 pm

Just remember, large clusters(blobs) of thunderstorms fire all of the time in the Caribbean sea, then the next day you look and they are gone. This is quite typical.
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#5244 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:29 pm

the key west radar would be too far away to see the surface
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#5245 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:29 pm

Death cancel. :lol: :roll:
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#5246 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:29 pm

fact789 wrote:the key west radar would be too far away to see the surface


I know i mentioned that
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#5247 Postby craptacular » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:30 pm

jhamps10 wrote:If I were to make a guess as to where center COULD be, It would be just south of the red splatches there in the sat image.

KEEP IN MIND, I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT LOOP, AND THIS IS TOTALLY A BIG GUESS!


I looked at the water vapor loop, and to my untrained eye, that same spot jumps out ... pretty much in the middle of a triangle formed by the SW Bahamas, Cuba, and Miami.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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#5248 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:30 pm

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#5249 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:There appears to be no LLC, just an open wave. The upper-level winds aren't too favorable for development. Very strong low to the west and another to the east. Strong high to the north. A NE jet of 40-60 kts is heading southwest toward the wave. Here's a plot of 200mb streamlines (purple), wind barbs (yellow), and a 1mb surface pressure analysis (blue). Upper lows are blue, remnants of Chris the red "L".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif


They aren't that unfavorable. Lot's of speed divergence and the actual winds are light near the system in relation to movement with divergence over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Plus the jet will stay away from it....if not provide for some good outflow channels a little later on down the backside of the low.

Now...there isn't a LLC...but the convection over the water is being caused by the conveergence withint the wave and the divergence aloft...only time will tell if it reforms a LLC further north in the straights...which is a possibility I mentioned yesterday. I doubt HIGHLY any LLC will form where it was...it will be further north where the dynamics are....which is where the convection is now.
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#5250 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:32 pm

KFDM help us out as our pro. Where is he and is he any better than he was this morning.
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#5251 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:32 pm

10:30pm TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
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#5252 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:33 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1
If this does still have a LLc or formed a new one (I doubt anyone knows for sure) it would at least regain it's TD status. IMHO
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#5253 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:33 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060232
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.


A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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#5254 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:33 pm

well I'm no pro met, but I can sertanily tell ya that it is better than this morning, but I was gone most of the afternoon cause my dad decided it would be fun to go to the ER.
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#5255 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:34 pm

BTW, maybe we should change the topic title to "Remnants of Chris" or something like that.
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#5256 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:35 pm

Im not convinced....I thinks its just a blowup of TStorms and nothing more.
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#5257 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:35 pm

jhamps10 wrote:well I'm no pro met, but I can sertanily tell ya that it is better than this morning, but I was gone most of the afternoon cause my dad decided it would be fun to go to the ER.
Hope your dad is ok.
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#5258 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:35 pm

Is this right? Click on fronts and shows the Low of chris just north of cuba

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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#5259 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:38 pm

Brent wrote:10:30pm TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.



Well, if this does develop, I'll have no problem eating the biggest plate of crow you can find. Heck, you can even hand-feed it to me. :lol:

I still think they are just being cautionary, can't blame them for that though.
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#5260 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:39 pm

Sanibel wrote:It's still holding together, as is obvious from the shape of the convection. This is nocturnal flaring.

I suspect the convection is north of Cuba because Chris has reached the southerly flow associated with the GOM ULL.

But this is definitely a contracting of the convection - which is a sign of organization (just as it pulls over Cuba).

Center relocation?


From my post yesterday:

"OK...I'm gonna talk some crazy talk here. Given the gradient is weak...and since the upper level winds are more favorable to the NW and there is some convergence over there...plus since it is moistening up...what if...

During the diurnal max we get a blowup of convection in the NW quad and the LLC gets sucked up about 1-2 degrees to the NW?

Just an idea...not saying it is going to happen...just wondering out loud."

It might be happening later than I thought...but...
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