Air Force Met wrote:wxman57 wrote:There appears to be no LLC, just an open wave. The upper-level winds aren't too favorable for development. Very strong low to the west and another to the east. Strong high to the north. A NE jet of 40-60 kts is heading southwest toward the wave. Here's a plot of 200mb streamlines (purple), wind barbs (yellow), and a 1mb surface pressure analysis (blue). Upper lows are blue, remnants of Chris the red "L".
They aren't that unfavorable. Lot's of speed divergence and the actual winds are light near the system in relation to movement with divergence over it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html
Plus the jet will stay away from it....if not provide for some good outflow channels a little later on down the backside of the low.
Now...there isn't a LLC...but the convection over the water is being caused by the conveergence withint the wave and the divergence aloft...only time will tell if it reforms a LLC further north in the straights...which is a possibility I mentioned yesterday. I doubt HIGHLY any LLC will form where it was...it will be further north where the dynamics are....which is where the convection is now.
The million dollar question is: if the center did reform further North what would that do to the projected track?
Seems to me, before the decapitation (a few days back), that Chris was going to track between these two ULL with the possiblity of tracking around the high aided by the current ULL (in the GOM) to bring him into the mid Texas coast. Pulling him more northward if you will.