Tropical Storm Chris

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ROCK
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#5261 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:40 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
wxman57 wrote:There appears to be no LLC, just an open wave. The upper-level winds aren't too favorable for development. Very strong low to the west and another to the east. Strong high to the north. A NE jet of 40-60 kts is heading southwest toward the wave. Here's a plot of 200mb streamlines (purple), wind barbs (yellow), and a 1mb surface pressure analysis (blue). Upper lows are blue, remnants of Chris the red "L".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif


They aren't that unfavorable. Lot's of speed divergence and the actual winds are light near the system in relation to movement with divergence over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Plus the jet will stay away from it....if not provide for some good outflow channels a little later on down the backside of the low.

Now...there isn't a LLC...but the convection over the water is being caused by the conveergence withint the wave and the divergence aloft...only time will tell if it reforms a LLC further north in the straights...which is a possibility I mentioned yesterday. I doubt HIGHLY any LLC will form where it was...it will be further north where the dynamics are....which is where the convection is now.



The million dollar question is: if the center did reform further North what would that do to the projected track?

Seems to me, before the decapitation (a few days back), that Chris was going to track between these two ULL with the possiblity of tracking around the high aided by the current ULL (in the GOM) to bring him into the mid Texas coast. Pulling him more northward if you will.
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#5262 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:42 pm

South Texas/Mexico, no changes there..
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#5263 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:45 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:South Texas/Mexico, no changes there..


That's my guess too. The ridge is too strong.
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#5264 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:47 pm

Huge ridge building in next week! Bad news for north Texas
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#5265 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:47 pm

AFM you will be the "MAN" if it pans out that way.I remember you saying that and I've been watching it all day.
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#5266 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:49 pm

Convection is decreasing
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#5267 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:50 pm

it sure is. Folks, Lets just delete this post and never bring up chris again... Lets focus to the wave sw of the cape..
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#5268 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:52 pm

^Well not yet....
For a blob of convection he has pretty good outflow. ;)
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#5269 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:53 pm

rnbaida wrote:it sure is. Folks, Lets just delete this post and never bring up chris again... Lets focus to the wave sw of the cape..



We can watch both, you know. :wink:
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#5270 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:54 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Is this right? Click on fronts and shows the Low of chris just north of cuba

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


In a general sense yes, but not exactly. If you look at the 00Z surface analyses from TAFB and NCEP you will see that they placed the low, further south over the islands that are north of "mainland" Cuba.
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#5271 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:55 pm

why watch chris we all look like fools... we get excited when a tropical wave develops convection....WOW :?:
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#5272 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:00 pm

rnbaida wrote:why watch chris we all look like fools... we get excited when a tropical wave develops convection....WOW :?:


Fools are as fools post!
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#5273 Postby stormtruth » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:01 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
rnbaida wrote:why watch chris we all look like fools... we get excited when a tropical wave develops convection....WOW :?:


Fools are as fools post!


Well said :lol:
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#5274 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:05 pm

rnbaida wrote:why watch chris we all look like fools... we get excited when a tropical wave develops convection....WOW :?:


Well...you do know you reserve the right to ignore this thread.

I've been here on this site for three years...so I think I've earned the right to talk about any blob of convection I want too...even if you think it is a waste of time.

Thanks. :wink:
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#5275 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:06 pm

Guy's after watching Chris for the last 5 days I would not write him off. No matter how pathetic he looks he seems to do just enough to buy himself another day. Eventually I think we will have something to track. Have a little patience. If you read between the line I think the NHC realizes that too. The 5pm advisory left little hope for Chris, but I think the wording in the 11pm opened up a little crack for him.
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#5276 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:06 pm

I think an ignorant person would write this one off completly.
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#5277 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:08 pm

Normandy wrote:Convection is decreasing

Yes I noticed as well but if you check the KW radar, showers don't seem to waning yet.
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rnbaida

#5278 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:14 pm

sorry if i made anyone mad, I'm just mad that this thing wont go away...
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#5279 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:19 pm

AFM on satellite the coverage of convection is decreasing but on radar individual ts cells are growing over the water near the center, what does that tell us?
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#5280 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:20 pm

>>I've been here on this site for three years...so I think I've earned the right to talk about any blob of convection I want too...even if you think it is a waste of time.

You are bleepin'-A right AFM. I know we agree and disagree on stuff from time to time, but this is one where I have your back.

>>sorry if i made anyone mad, I'm just mad that this thing wont go away...

Mad? At what? You don't have to apologize, but seriously. Mad? What the? Are you 15 or something?

Steve
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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