WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

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WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 04, 2006 3:55 pm

Image

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/041351ZAUG2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.7N 150.9E TO 11.2N 147.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 150.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N
151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST OF
CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 040807Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO SYNOPTIC SHIP
OBSERVATIONS, ENHANCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASED CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051400Z.//
Last edited by HURAKAN on Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 04, 2006 3:56 pm

the official stats are?
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#3 Postby P.K. » Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:04 pm

Officially a 1006hPa low pressure area.

WWJP25 RJTD 041800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 23.9N 148.3E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 143E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 38N 160E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 46N 157E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 43N 174E EAST 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 131E WNW 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 149E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 39N 126E ENE SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 157E TO 46N 158E 45N 159E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 159E TO 43N 161E 41N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 159E TO 41N 150E 40N 145E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 996 HPA AT 23.9N 107.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#4 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 04, 2006 6:24 pm

should this go in my logbook or should i wait until jtwc?
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#5 Postby P.K. » Fri Aug 04, 2006 6:31 pm

If you are keeping a record you should wait for an upgrade from RSMC Tokyo.
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 04, 2006 6:32 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZAUG2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 8.5N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.2N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.9N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.3N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.6N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.8N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 150.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT STORM POSITION IS ONLY MODERATE DUE TO A
100 NM SPREAD AMONG 041800Z FIXES. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION IS
CLOSE TO A 041658Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE FIX. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041351ZAUG2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 041400). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.


______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULUL
160 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 150.0 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:36 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.2N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.6N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.8N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 148.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
MOVED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS INITIAL
SHIFT WESTWARD HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST TRACK SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z.//

NNNN
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#8 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:46 am

30kts, 1000hPa.

WWJP25 RJTD 050600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 25.6N 146.3E EAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.0N 141.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 11.6N 147.6E SEA EAST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.0N 146.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 142E
46N 150E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 170E 36N 150E 39N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 46N 159E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 44N 178E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 133E NW 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 37N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 46N 160E 45N 161E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 41N 157E 38N 150E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 44N 164E 42N 167E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 05, 2006 7:22 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.1N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.6N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.0N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 147.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE THE OVERALL FIX CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY FAIR GIVEN THE STILL ORGANIZING CIRCULATION CENTER, THE
SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED AS IT BEGINS TO ENTER DEEP STEERING
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.


Image

Officially this systema remains a TD, and that's according to JMA. When JMA upgrades this to a tropical storm, it will be named "María."
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 05, 2006 7:36 am

GUZ001-002-003-004-051700-
TROPICAL STORM 08W LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
9 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006

CORRECTION TO WORDING

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40 MPH.

...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK EMERGENCY SUPPLIES
OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS
IN YOUR YARD. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH GAS. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR
DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND PREPARE YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT WATER
PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GUAM DUE TO SILT IN FENA RESERVOIR. CHECK
SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN.

BEAR IN MIND THAT TROPICAL STORM 08W HAS PICKED UP SPEED...AND IS
NOW FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT 6 PM SATURDAY GOVERNOR FELIX CAMACHO DECLARED GUAM IN CONDITION
OF READINESS 2. GOVERNOR FITIAL IN THE CNMI HAS PLACED ROTA IN
TROPICAL STORM CONDITION OF READINESS 3.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BE
PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR MORE ON SUNDAY...
AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM GUAM LST.

$$
ZIOBRO


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#11 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:20 am

Hurakan, if this gets upgraded by RSMC Tokyo it will be called Saomai. (PS - You've upgraded this to a TS in the thread title a little early :wink: )
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#12 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:24 am

Tell that to wunderground. They have it as Tropical Storm 08W
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#13 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:32 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:Tell that to wunderground. They have it as Tropical Storm 08W


That's because they pull their data from the JTWC, which is not the official source of data for the WPAC.
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#14 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:32 am

Knew this would happen after that last post.... :lol: As I posted last night thought you should use the WMO's page over than one you mention. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/wnp/ Atlhough it hasn't quite updated to the 1200 GMT advisories yet.

This is now TS Saomai, and the number is 0608.

WTPQ20 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 11.7N 146.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 18.0N 145.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 071200UTC 22.9N 142.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 081200UTC 26.0N 137.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
Last edited by P.K. on Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:32 am

P.K., in my post above I said that the JMA keeps this system as a depression at the moment. Furthermore, the name list says the next name will be Maria.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
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#16 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:34 am

I hate tracking West Pac storms because theyre all counted as their 10min avgs, not 1 min...Theyre great to watch, but annoying to see theyre intensity on discussions and such since theyre so confusing
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#17 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:35 am

It only got upgraded in the last few minutes. Maria was given to the other TS within the last hour. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87745
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:36 am

HURAKAN,I edited the title. :)
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#19 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:38 am

And here is the forecast track image.

Image
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#20 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:48 am

Won't that put it pretty close to Maria in 72hrs?

Yes, it'll be 7.8E 2.0S of Maria at 72hrs, with both as STSs. That should be close enough for a little interaction between the two.
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