WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#161 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:23 am

There appears to be 3 eyewalls...But this kicks Katrina,Rita,Opal, in most of the northern gulf hurricane butt on radar in organizion of the eye. This thing is making landfall closed off. That means its a very poweful storm.
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#162 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:30 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I expect this thing to make landfall around 120 to 125 knots with in the next few hours. This thing was also 140 to 145 knot cat5 for over a day. So longer then Katrina=more time to pile up the water. If Billis killed 650 people I expect this to do a Mitch.


That's a bold prediction...it's not often that storms kill 10,000+ people.
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#163 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:34 am

Knowing the power and the surge of this thing. In how closely together the people in china are it would not be hard.
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#164 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:36 am

I agree that damage could be catastrophic, but I don't think it would be a Mitch-like storm unless it stalled as it moved inland. Now THAT would be devastating, but there's no reason to think it's going to happen.
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#165 Postby wc is my initials » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:37 am

The news in China says this might be the strongest typhoon to hit China in 50 years
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#166 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:01 am

Scary how hard it is to find info on this. Virtually nothing in the Western press.
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#167 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:12 am

curtadams wrote:Scary how hard it is to find info on this. Virtually nothing in the Western press.


Well, I can find 1 article on it on each of the major news websites. BBC has it as the top story in the "Asia-Pacific" section.

Reuters has a much more up-to-date and in-depth article of it here:
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-08-10T084328Z_01_PEK119581_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-CHINA.xml
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#168 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:14 am

2:15am pst...

The Super Typhoon has reformed a soild red ring this morning with a clear eye. Winds are kepted at 125 knots. Landfall next few hours.
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#169 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:18 am

The eye its self is moving onshore.
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#170 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 10, 2006 5:10 am

It has made landfall with winds of 80kts and a minimum central pressure of 940hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 27.2N 120.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 29.1N 115.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#171 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 5:38 am

Typhoon Saomai makes landfall with winds near 120 knots a little over a hour ago. Latest data shows that it has weaken...With cloud tops warming and eye cooling. Radar shows that the eye has no started to fade. Winds are lowerd to 105 knots.

Now 105 knots
6 90 knots
12 75 knots
24 60 knots


These are my thinking on tropical cyclone strength. These are not offical. But they are likely better then the JTWC...
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#172 Postby bvigal » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:58 am

:eek: :eek: This is quite an eye for being so close to land!
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#173 Postby Windspeed » Thu Aug 10, 2006 9:52 am

I can easily accept this as having the potential to be one of China's biggest catastrophes by a tropical cyclone. Looks like the northern eyewall came in very close to the port city of Wenzhou. The core of Wenzhou has around 1 million people, but the low-lying coastal plain has another 6 million residence that were potentially in harms way of surge and flooding. The Zhejiang province, which is one of the smaller territories, is a highly concentrated economic district that supports around 50 million people.

This evening will be very interesting. Hope for the best, of course, but I expect pretty grim news. A death toll in the thousands might not be unrealistic. Will probably take weeks to attain figures. The economic loss might be quite extensive as well.
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#174 Postby Yarrah » Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:27 am

BEIJING, China (AP) -- Typhoon Saomai, the most powerful storm to hit China in five decades, raged ashore Thursday and churned across the crowded southeast, killing at least two people, wrecking houses and capsizing ships after 1.5 million residents were evacuated.

Damage was expected to be widespread in areas that were still recovering from Tropical Storm Bilis, which claimed more than 600 lives last month.

Saomai, with winds of up to 216 kph (135 mph), hit land in China in the coastal town of Mazhan in Zhejiang province, the official Xinhua News Agency said. The area is about 1,500 kilometers (950 miles) south of the Chinese capital, Beijing, which wasn't affected.

The Zhejiang provincial weather bureau said it was the most powerful storm to strike China since the founding of the communist government in 1949, Xinhua said.

Saomai, dubbed a "super typhoon" by Chinese forecasters due to its huge size and high wind speeds, was the eighth major storm of this year's unusually violent typhoon season.

It killed at least two people in the Philippines earlier in the week and dumped rain on Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong, forcing airlines to cancel hundreds of flights.

In China, two people were killed Thursday in the southern city of Fuding in Fujian province, which borders Zhejiang to the south, Xinhua said. It didn't give any other details.

Eight Taiwanese sailors were missing after two ships capsized in a harbor in Fujian, while four Chinese were missing after their ship struck a reef, the agency reported.

Before the storm hit China, authorities evacuated 990,000 people from flood-prone areas in Zhejiang and 569,000 from parts of neighboring Fujian province, Xinhua said.

Xinhua said 80 people were injured and more than 1,000 houses toppled in and around Mazhan. It said three centimeters (one inch) of rain fell in one hour.

Saomai is the Vietnamese name for the planet Venus.

I think this is just the beginning, seeing as how populated that area is. :cry:
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#175 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:31 am

after looking at the sat imagery, the landfall intensity was almost certainly closer to the JMA than the JTWC (as tends to be the case based upon past observations)

Saomi appeared to be a low end cat 3 when it struck the coast based upon sat imagery, and knowing that recon observations indicate weakening far quicker than Dvorak estimates allow
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#176 Postby whereverwx » Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:50 am

Wow, check out this.

Image Image
Image Image
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#177 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:58 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The system has reformed almost a fall ring of red. Winds are kepted at 12:10am pst at 125 knots.

I saw that. I don't think it's rapidly weakening. I think it's weakening quite slowly and getting bigger before landfall.


It was not and my prediction was incorrect. Apparently a trough enhanced Saomai's outflow right before landfall, in addition, it had moved enough west so that inflow was not coming straight off the mountains of Taiwan. Therefore, I would say it was holding steady at landfall.

And IMO Saomai was a low end 4 at landfall.
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#178 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:02 am

Wow, very impressive radar capture.

Image
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#179 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:16 am

interesting it actually perked up right as it hit land!
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#180 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:22 am

Derek Ortt wrote:after looking at the sat imagery, the landfall intensity was almost certainly closer to the JMA than the JTWC (as tends to be the case based upon past observations)

Saomi appeared to be a low end cat 3 when it struck the coast based upon sat imagery, and knowing that recon observations indicate weakening far quicker than Dvorak estimates allow
I thought it would hit with winds of 125-130, but if the rapid weakening did not let off then I say it hit with category 2 winds. About 105-110mph.
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