WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

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Cyclenall
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#181 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:30 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The system has reformed almost a fall ring of red. Winds are kepted at 12:10am pst at 125 knots.

I saw that. I don't think it's rapidly weakening. I think it's weakening quite slowly and getting bigger before landfall.


It was not and my prediction was incorrect. Apparently a trough enhanced Saomai's outflow right before landfall, in addition, it had moved enough west so that inflow was not coming straight off the mountains of Taiwan. Therefore, I would say it was holding steady at landfall.

And IMO Saomai was a low end 4 at landfall.

I agree totally. I didn't notice very much weakening, if any, occurring before landfall.

Certainly going to be a bad storm for anyone who lives there since it could stay for a while. The death toll will be high sadly since it was a powerful and large typhoon when it made landfall. Over 2000 dead would not be impossible.
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#182 Postby whereverwx » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:10 pm

Here's a radar loop of Saomai's landfall.

Image
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#183 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:31 pm

Looking at the sat and radar/85h data I'v lowered landfall to 115 knots to. This thing was way more organized then Katrina at landfall.
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#184 Postby f5 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:35 pm

if it weren't for the dry air
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#185 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:48 pm

115 kts is prolly too high...i mean looking at the radar it fell apart pretty damn fast
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#186 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:04 pm

In reading the news article one thing jumped out at me "Energy".The article says so far 8 majors thus far this year.The research Senor Pepe had done over on the tropical analysis page on the ACE index's makes me wonder are we seeing energy transfer from one basin to the other?Is the ACE index of the Pac to rise this year while it appears that of the Atlantic is waning?Still early in the Atlantic season but I have to wonder.With all the ULLs and TUTTs in the Atlantic the energy needs to be expended someplace.
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#187 Postby btangy » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:16 pm

If you look carefully at the radar, there was an outer eyewall forming in the last few hours before landfall. IR satellite also shows a cooling of the cloud tops right before landfall. It is possible that Saomai could have been strengthening as it approached China, but given the outer eyewall never truly got a chance to contract fully, any strengthening was probably modest (<10 knots). IMO, it was a solid Cat3 at landfall and the JTWC's estimate of 115knots was slightly too high.
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#188 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:19 pm

btangy wrote:If you look carefully at the radar, there was an outer eyewall forming in the last few hours before landfall. IR satellite also shows a cooling of the cloud tops right before landfall. It is possible that Saomai could have been strengthening as it approached China, but given the outer eyewall never truly got a chance to contract fully, any strengthening was probably modest (<10 knots). IMO, it was a solid Cat3 at landfall and the JTWC's estimate of 115knots was slightly too high.


JT's estimate of 115 kt was after it made landfall. Personally, I think it was around 115 kt at landfall. The radar structure was great at landfall as same with sat.
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#189 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:21 pm

I agree wxman_91....It will take a few days intill they can get into the area of landfall. Then we will know the damage. I'm expecting some very bad damage.
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#190 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:29 pm

Saomai was the most powerful typhoon to hit China since the founding of the communist government in 1949, Xinhua said, citing the Zhejiang provincial weather bureau.
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#191 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:30 pm

Thanks Calamity. That loop is awesome, and frightening :eek:
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#192 Postby btangy » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:36 pm

Personally, I think it was around 115 kt at landfall. The radar structure was great at landfall as same with sat.


Your estimate is within my range of uncertainty, but the radar presentation of the structure definitely points to some arguments of Saomai not being greater than a strong Cat 3. The W semicircle was fairly eroded as it passed N of Taiwan, and although it did recover some as I mentioned above, it seemed like it would have needed a couple more hours over water to truly fully recover to its previous strength. Second, a solid outer eyewall was present, which suggests that the wind field was spread out over a large area and the max winds couldn't be very intense.

This is all probably just splitting hairs as this was an intense typhoon, and I do fear the loss of life that may result from Saomai. The true intensity will never be known. They need to bring back reconaissance in the W Pac.
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#193 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:42 pm

It may be a few days before they even get into the landfall zone. I expect Katrina or rita type damage out of this...The surge did not lower in did not have any time to do so. Plus this was most likely stronger then Katrina at landfall. Looked better.
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#194 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:44 pm

Right btangy, but...

1) There could have been attenuation so the NW side looked as if was weakening when in fact it wasn't. Sat IMO shows weakening as it passed north of Taiwan but recovery at landfall.

2) The fact that Saomai was heading in a WNW direction thruout much of its life, and that it was fairly small, meant that environmental pressures were probably high and that there was probably a large ridge to the north. That increases pressure gradient.

3) Agreed on the outer eyewall, but many canes have made landfall as a Cat 4 or 5 in the Atlantic with one.
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#195 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 6:30 pm

The newest news out of the area is at least 5 hours old. Its like harder then pulling teeth out of your month with a 2 by 4.
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#196 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 10, 2006 6:34 pm

It came in north of Taiwan with winds near 135 MPH. Several ships capsized and there are fatlities.
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#197 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 10, 2006 6:37 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 27.7N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 29.3N 114.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#198 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:53 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 28N 117E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA =
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#199 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:08 pm

Sun coming up over there. So they should push farther into the damage area today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/vis-l.jpg
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#200 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 10, 2006 8:18 pm

Typhoon kills at least 30 in China By JOE McDONALD, Associated Press Writer
30 minutes ago



BEIJING - The most powerful typhoon to hit China in five decades raged across its southeastern coast Thursday, capsizing ships and destroying homes after 1.5 million people evacuated. At least 30 people were killed and dozens were injured.

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At least 28 people were killed in Cangnan County in coastal Zhejiang province, where Saomai made landfall, the Xinhua News Agency said Friday. The government earlier reported two deaths in Fuding, a city in neighboring Fujian province. Xinhua didn't say how the latest deaths occurred, but said 7,300 homes were destroyed.

Officials said at least 80 people were injured and 19 reported missing across the region. The typhoon was also blamed for at least two deaths in the Philippines earlier.

Torrential rains were forecast in the next three days as the typhoon churned inland across crowded areas where Tropical Storm Bilis killed more than 600 people last month.

Saomai, with winds up to 135 mph, made landfall at the town of Mazhan in coastal Zhejiang province and was moving northwest at 12 mph, Xinhua said, citing weather officials.

Eight Taiwanese sailors were missing after two ships capsized in a harbor in Fujian, while four Chinese were missing after their ship struck a reef, the agency reported. Seven others were reported missing in the Philippines after giant waves and heavy rains generated by the typhoon battered coastal villages, officials said.

Saomai, dubbed a "super typhoon" by Chinese forecasters due to its huge size and high wind speeds, was the eighth major storm of this year's unusually violent typhoon season. Saomai was the most powerful typhoon to hit China since the founding of the communist government in 1949, Xinhua said, citing the Zhejiang provincial weather bureau.

Before the storm's arrival, 990,000 people were evacuated from flood-prone areas of Zhejiang and 569,000 from the neighboring coastal province of Fujian, Xinhua said. It said a total of 70,000 ships had returned to port in the two provinces.

The area is about 950 miles south of Beijing, the Chinese capital, which was not affected by the storm.

In the Philippines, more than 200 houses built on stilts were destroyed and a child was killed and another was reported missing as waves up to 10 feet tall ravaged the coast of Bongao, the capital of southern Tawi-Tawi province, before dawn Wednesday, provincial Gov. Sadikul Sahali said.

"There is floating debris everywhere," Sahali said.

At least six members of a family also were reported missing after their house was buried in a landslide on Sarangani island, part of southern Davao del Sur province, the Office of Civil Defense said.

Elsewhere, a man was killed as big waves washed away about 200 shanties in seaside villages in Talisay city on central Cebu island early Wednesday, the civil defense office said.

Saomai, named for the Vietnamese word for the planet Venus, passed across Japan's Okinawa island group on Wednesday with winds up to 89 mph, prompting airlines to cancel 141 flights and affecting 24,000 passengers.

China's weather bureau had forecast unusually heavy typhoon action this summer, saying warmer than normal Pacific currents and weather patterns over Tibet would create bigger storms and draw them farther inland.

Bilis triggered flooding and landslides as far inland as Hunan province, hundreds of miles from the coast.

Most of the deaths happened in areas away from coastal communities that have elaborate dike networks and a long history of evacuating flood-prone areas.

Typhoon Prapiroon lashed China's southern coast last week, killing at least 80 people in floods and landslides in Guangdong province and neighboring Guangxi.

Even as Saomai stormed ashore, Chinese forecasters were already closely watching Tropical Storm Bopha, which trailed behind it farther out in the Pacific. Bopha was about 110 miles southeast of Guangdong late Thursday and moving west with winds of 29 mph, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
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