Tropical Storm Debby

MiamiensisWx · #1 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:42 pm

This thread is for the advisories on Tropical Depression Four and will start when the first advisories may be released at 5PM EST.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:19 pm

What all here are waiting for is the discussion to see the reasoning for the upgrade so let's wait for the advisory in a few minutes.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:35 pm

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 21, 2006

the area of low pressure southeast of the Cape Verde Islands has
been maintaining enough convective banding today to warrant Dvorak
classifications of t1.5 from TAFB and SAB at 18z. Since then...a
small burst of convection has developed near the circulation
center. Given this...and the broad cyclonic envelope of the
low...advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Four.

The initial motion is 285/10. The depression is south of the
subtropical ridge...but this ridge is forecast by global models to
slide eastward as a series of mid-latitude short waves move through
the central Atlantic and erode the ridge. This should allow the
depression to take a track between west-northwest and northwest
around the periphery of the ridge throughout much of the forecast
period. The official forecast is in good agreement with the GFS
and GFDL guidance...as well as the BAM suite of models. Neither
the UKMET nor NOGAPS hang on to the cyclone and these models take
its remnants westward.

Outer banding structures are well defined...but overall the
convective signature is still a little thin. Water temperatures
should be warm enough for the next day or so to support development
and the shear is light. During days 2 and 3 of the forecast period
the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters and the
official forecast shows only slow development after that. The
intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL
guidance.

Portions of the Cape Verde Islands are within the forecast tropical
storm force wind swath...and the government of the Cape Verde
Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 12.5n 21.5w 30 kt
12hr VT 22/0600z 13.0n 23.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 22/1800z 14.2n 25.2w 45 kt
36hr VT 23/0600z 15.5n 27.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 23/1800z 17.0n 30.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 24/1800z 20.0n 35.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 25/1800z 23.5n 41.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 26/1800z 26.5n 46.5w 60 kt

$$
forecaster Franklin

vacanechaser · #4 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:37 pm

http://152.80.49.216/atcf_prods/al04200 ... 202322.gif

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

*edited by staff to make the large image clickable so you don't to scroll to read each line on the page

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:40 pm

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N...21.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TS warning for the Cape Verde Islands.

bellavista2 · #6 Postby **bellavista2** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:46 pm

looks like no major landfall in this one except maybe Bermuda?

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:51 pm

the impact to land tomorrow may be worse than we think. Depends upon the evolution of convection in the NE quad

#8 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:06 pm

I don't know about anyone else, but I love a real long tracker.

Just had to say that, because last year really didn't have many..

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:07 pm

no sign of any NW movement yet, just west mostly.

#10 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:25 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I don't know about anyone else, but I love a real long tracker.

Just had to say that, because last year really didn't have many..

So do I. They are always fun to predict and follow when they aren't making landfall. The last long-tracker was Irene, but that was on the edge thinking it would fizzle for a while. The last true fish-spinning monster was Karl in 2004.

I am leaning towards a path similar to 2004's Danielle, although a bit stronger (say, 115-120 mph at peak).

Buck · #11 Postby **Buck** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:30 pm

We haven't seen TS Warnings for the Cape Verde in a long while! When was the last time?

HurricaneBill · #12 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:49 pm

Although rare, the Cape Verde Islands have suffered damage from tropical storms.

According to EM-DAT:

1982 Tropical Storm Beryl
3 killed
Damage US$3 million

1984 Tropical Storm Fran
29 killed

#13 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:54 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Although rare, the Cape Verde Islands have suffered damage from tropical storms.

According to EM-DAT:

1982 Tropical Storm Beryl
3 killed
Damage US$3 million

1984 Tropical Storm Fran
29 killed

Are you sure about Beryl? According to the NHC deadliest storms list, Beryl killed well over 100.

WmE · #14 Postby **WmE** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:00 pm

According to Wikipedia it killed 115 people!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... %281982%29

#15 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:14 pm

WmE wrote:According to Wikipedia it killed 115 people!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... %281982%29

Heh, I wrote that article! Back on topic, the NHC says up to 10 inches of rain is possible in localized mountainous areas, so let's hope we don't get a repeat of Beryl.

Josephine96 · #16 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:17 pm

The big question is whether or not #4 can make the long trek across.. I like a lot of others here like long track storms

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:33 pm

The intermediete advisory coming in minutes.

#18 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:36 pm

why is there an intermidiate advisory?

WmE · #19 Postby **WmE** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:37 pm

fact789 wrote:why is there an intermidiate advisory?

Cape Verde....

Gorky · #20 Postby **Gorky** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:37 pm

because it is a threat to land...

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