Tropical Storm Debby

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8333
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#101 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:31 pm

I just plotted all the forecast points on Google Earth with a satelite overlay.

What I was trying to see was how different the forecasts are.

Stewart Discussion was different than Franklins but, the forecast points we not changed that much.

Image
0 likes   

crab_storm

#102 Postby crab_storm » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:45 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#103 Postby AussieMark » Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:40 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230843
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 AM AST WED AUG 23 2006

...DEBBY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST OR ABOUT 385
MILES...625 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.9 N...30.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#104 Postby AussieMark » Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:41 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230842
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND A
0331 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
SYSTEM...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES.
THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...MAINTAINING
THIS MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE THE GLOBAL MODELS
APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE UMKET MODEL DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM
AND IN TURN TRACKS IT MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS
HAVE A STRONGER CYCLONE WHICH FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND
TURNS NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NOGAPS TRACK SEEMS
UNREASONABLE BECAUSE IT RESULTS FROM AN UNREALISTIC DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM FROM A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

DEBBY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
SSTS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
INTENSIFICATION SLOW IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER... THE CYCLONE
WILL BE PASSING OVER WARMER SSTS...BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN WHICH MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY PREDICTION. THE
NHC FORECAST BRINGS DEBBY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 4 DAYS...WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT IS
LEVELED OFF IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.9N 30.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.9N 32.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.6N 37.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 40.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 24.0N 46.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 27.5N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 35
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#105 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:43 am

Debby appears to be slowly strengthening...based on this morning's
Quikscat pass that had a couple of believable 45 kt vector. The
system also showed very good organization on an 11z microwave pass.
Conventional satellite imagery does not yet reflect that level of
organization...and Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45
kt. The system is maintaining fairly good outflow under light
easterly shear. The thermodynamic environment is expected to
support only slow development for the next couple of days...but
Debby will be moving back over warmer waters after that. Global
models continue to suggest that an upper low will cause an increase
in southerly shear late in the period that could slow the
intensification. Nevertheless...the explicit intensity guidance
continues to indicate gradual development to near hurricane
strength and so does the official forecast.
The initial motion is 300/15. Debby continues to be steered between
west-northwestward and northwestward around the southwestern
periphery of a mid-to upper-level high centered near the Azores.
There has been no change to the basic synoptic thinking. A
significant weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to
develop as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the central
Atlantic late in the forecast period. All guidance models except
the NOGAPS begin a recurvature by day 5...and the NOGAPS does so
shortly thereafter. There has been very little change to the
official forecast track at this time...but I note that most of the
guidance shows a harder right turn by day 5 than the official
forecast does.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/1500z 16.8n 31.5w 45 kt
12hr VT 24/0000z 17.8n 33.6w 50 kt
24hr VT 24/1200z 19.1n 36.5w 55 kt
36hr VT 25/0000z 20.3n 39.3w 55 kt
48hr VT 25/1200z 21.6n 42.2w 55 kt
72hr VT 26/1200z 24.5n 47.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 27/1200z 27.5n 51.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 28/1200z 30.5n 53.0w 65 kt

$$
forecaster Franklin
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117581
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#106 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:44 am

959
WTNT24 KNHC 231442
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2006


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 31.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 31.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 30.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.8N 33.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 36.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 39.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 42.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 31.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5181
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Plantation/Sunrise, FL

#107 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:45 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

DEBBY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THIS MORNING'S
QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 45 KT VECTOR. THE
SYSTEM ALSO SHOWED VERY GOOD ORGANIZATION ON AN 11Z MICROWAVE PASS.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT YET REFLECT THAT LEVEL OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45
KT. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC SYNOPTIC THINKING. A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT
THE NOGAPS BEGIN A RECURVATURE BY DAY 5...AND THE NOGAPS DOES SO
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME...BUT I NOTE THAT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HARDER RIGHT TURN BY DAY 5 THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.8N 31.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.8N 33.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 36.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.3N 39.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 42.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 47.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 27.5N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 30.5N 53.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117581
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#108 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:46 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#109 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:46 am

That sounds good to me. I wonder what she will catch fishing?LOL :cheesy:
0 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1685
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

#110 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:49 am

storms in NC wrote:That sounds good to me. I wonder what she will catch fishing?LOL :cheesy:



What with the lower water temps she is supposed to move over, probably a cold. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 35
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#111 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:52 am

storms in NC wrote:That sounds good to me. I wonder what she will catch fishing?LOL :cheesy:


Sushi
0 likes   

User avatar
Grease Monkey
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm

#112 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:01 am

Those poor sea creatures. Canes are very tramatizing to them. For us it's like living in an apartment with thin walls and the floor above you is throwing a loud acid rock concert. How could you ever wish for a fish. Not nice. Shame on you. Shaaaaaame......
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28072
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#113 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:31 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232023
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST WED AUG 23 2006

...DEBBY LOSES SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST OR ABOUT 610
MILES...980 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N...33.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28072
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#114 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:32 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232023
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE ORGANIZATION OF DEBBY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD
OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WHILE THIS IS PARTLY DIURNAL...DEBBY IS
MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND OVER 26C WATERS.
DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN SHARPLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT...AT BEST...ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.
ALTHOUGH DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT A
RESTRENGTHENING AND THE LONGER RANGE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
305/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THINKING AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. DEBBY CONTINUES
TO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN THE RATE OF RECURVATURE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.9N 33.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 35.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 38.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 41.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 44.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 28.5N 51.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 52.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8333
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#115 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:35 pm

420
WTNT34 KNHC 240234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM AST WED AUG 23 2006

...DEBBY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST OR ABOUT 730
MILES...1175 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N...34.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8333
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#116 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:36 pm

568
WTNT24 KNHC 240234
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 34.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 34.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 33.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.8N 36.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 45.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.4N 49.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 34.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8333
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#117 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:41 pm

259
WTNT44 KNHC 240239
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

AFTER THE BRIEF WEAKENING PHASE DEBBY WENT THROUGH EARLIER AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO
MAKE A COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GOOD BANDING
FEATURES AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DESPITE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 30 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/16. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE DEBBY IS BASICALLY ON TRACK.
A GRADUAL MOTION CLOSE TO 290 DEGREES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK NOW THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE WEST SIDE OF DEBBY. OTHERWISE
DEBBY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS TO TO BE STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
BY THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-55W LONGITUDE...
ALLOWING DEBBY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THAT WEAKNESS. THE UKMET AND
GFDL MODELS INDICATE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...
WHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS MERELY SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AND
MOVE IT NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE GFS IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY RUN OFF AND LEAVE DEBBY CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
GUNA...GUNS...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SSTS...THE COOLEST WATER IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...SO SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARMER
SSTS. BY 72 HOURS... THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AT LEAST 20 KT...WHICH WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION DESPITE DEBBY
MOVING OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR VECTOR WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...
DEBBY COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY BY DAY
5 WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE SITUATED IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND...THUS...IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.8N 34.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 19.8N 36.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.1N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 42.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.6N 45.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 26.4N 49.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 29.5N 51.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 33.0N 51.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

Josephine96

#118 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:44 pm

Sounds like she's trying to rev up again huh Luis
0 likes   

Toadstool
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:46 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#119 Postby Toadstool » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:54 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Those poor sea creatures. Canes are very tramatizing to them. For us it's like living in an apartment with thin walls and the floor above you is throwing a loud acid rock concert. How could you ever wish for a fish. Not nice. Shame on you. Shaaaaaame......


Lol, they love it... it's like jumping on the moon with low gravity to them... they take a jump out of the water and up up up they go!
0 likes   

Josephine96

#120 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:57 pm

Even if it's a fish.. Hope it becomes our 1st hurricane.. It'll be bad for the mariners, but no land is better..
0 likes   


Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests