Tropical Storm Debby

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clfenwi
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#121 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:53 am

WTNT34 KNHC 240831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 AM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...36.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTNT44 KNHC 240830
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF
THE STORM WITH A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN FORMING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 40 KT IN BETWEEN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KT. A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SSTS AND
FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
SSTS RISE A BIT FASTER BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEYOND TWO
DAYS... AS SHIPS NEVER MAKES DEBBY A HURRICANE WHILE THE GFDL
INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY THREE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME...300/17. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
IN BETWEEN A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND 24-36
HOURS... A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS NEAR 55W. THIS
BREAK SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH... THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST TO TAKE
DEBBY NORTHWARD. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MODEL.... SHOOTING THE
STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES NORTH OF 40N IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE
NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER... SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND KEEPING
DEBBY SOUTH OF 32N THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
A LITTLE FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT... A BIT SOUTH OF THE GUNS CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.6N 36.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.6N 38.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.8N 41.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 47.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 27.5N 50.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 30.5N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 34.5N 49.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#122 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:31 am

923
WTNT44 KNHC 241429
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON 45 KT VECTORS IN RECENT
QUIKSCAT DATA...ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 35 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT
BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
STRONG. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS DEBBY MOVES OVER
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS DIVERGING. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER
WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...BUT THE GFDL MODEL STILL FORECASTS A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. I SUSPECT THE GFDL IS UNDERPLAYING THE IMPACT
OF THE SHEAR.

THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING OR TRACK
FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEBBY MOVES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES. ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A RECURVATURE TRACK...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT
RATES...IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AS WELL AS THE GUNA AND FSU CONSENSUS
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.4N 37.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.4N 40.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.6N 43.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.8N 45.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 48.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 28.5N 50.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 31.5N 50.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 48.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#123 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:39 am

Image
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#124 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:28 pm

Hey folks,dont forget that Debby is out there so in minutes the 5 PM advisory will come.
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#125 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:30 pm

Oh, poor Debby is going to be ignored now. Well, I will still give her some attention, just because I like her. :wink:
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#126 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:31 pm

We haven't forgotten about the Debster wandering off all alone. I kind of like the Debster cause she's small and isn't bothering anyone.
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#127 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:32 pm

Yeah, Debby's time in the spotlight is probably over, since Ernesto could be a monster...
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#128 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:34 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Yeah, Debby's time in the spotlight is probably over, since Ernesto could be a monster...


Don't forget...a monster potentially threatening the CONUS. Debby's probably not going to harm anyone.
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#129 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:34 pm

974
WTNT24 KNHC 242034
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 39.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 39.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.3N 41.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 44.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 47.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.1N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.9N 51.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 40.1N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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#130 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:35 pm

992
FKNT24 KNHC 242034
TCANT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060824/2100Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: DEBBY
NR: 013
PSN: N2118 W03930
MOV: WNW 17KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 250600 N2218 W04154
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 251200 N2303 W04324
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 251800 N2348 W04454
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
NXT MSG: 20060825/0300Z


$$
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#131 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:35 pm

411
WTNT34 KNHC 242034
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1080
MILES...1735 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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#132 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:36 pm

004
WTNT44 KNHC 242034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN DEBBY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION DISPLACED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...DEBBY IS EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE PATTERN IN ITS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT-TERM...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS. THE UPPER FLOW MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE MAY NOT COME UNTIL IT NEARS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS SAME TROUGH IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEBBY'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 5.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO DELAY
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ONE DAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. DEBBY SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
INTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.3N 39.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.3N 41.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.8N 44.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 25.4N 47.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 27.1N 49.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 30.9N 51.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 35.0N 49.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 40.1N 44.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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#133 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:41 pm

013
AXNT20 KNHC 250000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 24/2100
UTC IS NEAR 12.9N 62.4W...OR ABOUT 135 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 KT. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. FOR MORE
DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN...FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN
56W-65W. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL
BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DEPRESSION.
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#134 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:46 pm

016
WTNT44 KNHC 250245
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

DEBBY STILL LOOKS MUCH LIKE IT DID SIX HOURS AGO...WITH A RELATIVELY
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS SPREADING OUT TO THE NORTH
DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30-35 KT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS RETRIEVED BY QUIKSCAT IN AN OVERPASS AROUND 21Z
WERE 45 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. MANUAL
ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES CONFIRMS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16 IS
JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF WHAT IT WAS EARLIER...BUT STILL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OR THE UNDERLYING
REASONING. THE STEERING MECHANISMS LEADING TO RECURVATURE REMAIN
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT ABATE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF DEBBY...SO ONLY VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MIGHT SLACKEN A BIT ON
DAY 3 AND ALLOW DEBBY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER...BUT
THEREAFTER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE SHEAR. THE CHANCES OF DEBBY
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEAR
TO BE QUITE MARGINAL...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.9N 41.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.9N 43.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 24.6N 46.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 26.2N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 28.1N 50.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 32.0N 51.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 36.0N 48.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#135 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:47 pm

280
WTNT24 KNHC 250245
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 41.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 41.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 40.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.9N 43.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 46.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 48.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.1N 50.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 41.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#136 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:51 am

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING
THE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25
AND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37
KT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40
KT VECTORS. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE
SHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES.
THE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND
DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.9N 43.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 25.3N 45.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 27.2N 47.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 49.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.2N 49.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1200Z 48.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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#137 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:57 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 262043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RECENTLY DEVELOPED
BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 45 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY...REMAIN AT 25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM BASED
OFF OF THE GFS FIELDS SHOWS DISSIPATION AS A SHALLOW WARM CORE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES
ABSORPTION WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS. SO...THERE
STILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT...OR NON-CONVECTIVE...LOW BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

DEBBY HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
340/10. IT APPEARS THAT THE RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCING THIS MOTION AND ACCELERATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.0N 47.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 28.6N 48.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 27/1800Z 31.2N 48.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/0600Z 34.2N 46.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


000
WTNT34 KNHC 262036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...DEBBY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1410
MILES...2270 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.0 N...47.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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#138 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:39 pm

fishy fishy ... thank god this one got away
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#139 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:11 pm

WTNT44 KNHC 270257
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEBBY JUST A SWIRL OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 25 KT...AND A 2200 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS CONTAINED SOME 25 KT WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS. BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 25 KT. DEBBY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 12
HOURS...CONTINGENT UPON NO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
RECENT FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AS WELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED
BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ABSORPTION
OF DEBBY BY THE FRONTAL ZONE OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 27.9N 48.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 29.7N 48.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/0000Z 32.1N 48.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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#140 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:12 pm

000
WTNT24 KNHC 270255
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.7N 48.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.1N 48.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

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