Tropical Storm Debby

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Grease Monkey
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#61 Postby Grease Monkey » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:28 pm

forecasts tend to change drastically from each TWO for developing systems this year. I wouldn't hold much weight on one TWO until if and when it gets 3 to 5 days to approaching land.
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#62 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:28 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:So now they are thinking this could be an eastern Seaboard problem?
Well it is too early to say, but if it moved west it could either be a Caribbean then GOM issue or it could be an EC issue.


Based on the latest NHC track there is no way possible they could be that far off and this thing ends up in the Carrib & GOM.


I disagree, models often trender further and further west over time.
Plus, there's only 2 scenerio's. Either it curves out to sea in the weakness in the ridge, or it doesn't and heads westward towards the islands....It can still go North of the Islands, but it may also enter the Carib sea. The current models are assuming that it will hit the weakness, if it doesn't, then the models will be DRASTICALLY shifted westward.
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#63 Postby the_winds_that_sheared_me » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:28 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:So now they are thinking this could be an eastern Seaboard problem?
Well it is too early to say, but if it moved west it could either be a Caribbean then GOM issue or it could be an EC issue.


Based on the latest NHC track there is no way possible they could be that far off and this thing ends up in the Carrib & GOM.


Unless the track keeps shifting left as Stewart hinted at as a possibillity in the discussion. If it shifts left enough that it enters the caribbean, then the current forecast track wont be the forecast track no more and they will be right.
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#64 Postby rainstorm » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:29 pm

as steve lyons said, the chance of it getting 3900 miles across the ocean is unlikely as 35 of 39 canes that have formed east of 35w have recurved. 4 have though, so remain vigilant
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#65 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:30 pm

tgenius wrote:HouTXmetro, if the models are totally off as the disco is suggesting is possible, then it is quite possible.
well i thought the nhc doesn't rely strictly on the models in the first place and creates a track accordingly?
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#66 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:33 pm

This thing is a depression right now and this far out, can go absolutely anywhere...
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#67 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:33 pm

Climatology means nothing on a storm-by-storm basis. They are governed only by physics, not statistics. I.E., Vince of 2005 made landfall in Spain. First one ever.
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#68 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:43 pm

AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE
TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.

poop.
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#69 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:45 pm

rainstorm wrote:as steve lyons said, the chance of it getting 3900 miles across the ocean is unlikely as 35 of 39 canes that have formed east of 35w have recurved. 4 have though, so remain vigilant


Which four?
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#70 Postby Grease Monkey » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:45 pm

but CNN said it was expected to curve out to see. How can you doubt them? :lol:
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#71 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:47 pm

rainstorm wrote:as steve lyons said, the chance of it getting 3900 miles across the ocean is unlikely as 35 of 39 canes that have formed east of 35w have recurved. 4 have though, so remain vigilant


BUT this may be developing slower than they thought. In fact, on the latest advisory they reduced the wind speed for the first 48 hours....If we want it to recurve, we want it to strengthen. The quicker the stregthens the better.

But you might be right, it can still recurve. We'll just have to wait and see.
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#72 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 12:20 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 23.2W 0R ABOUT
170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM IN SPITE OF THE LOSE OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. LARGER AREA OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ANOTHER WAVE OF
AFRICAN DUST IS N OF THE T.D WHICH USUALLY HAMPERS CONVECTION.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECASTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
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#73 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 12:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
200 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006

...OUTER RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED
AFTER THAT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...12.5 N...24.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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#74 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:52 am

Tropical Depression Four Forecast/Advisory Number 3

0900 UTC Tue Aug 22 2006


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cape Verde Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 12.8n 24.6w at 22/0900z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
12 ft seas..100ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 12.8n 24.6w at 22/0900z
at 22/0600z center was located near 12.5n 24.0w

forecast valid 22/1800z 13.7n 26.6w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 23/0600z 15.1n 29.3w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 23/1800z 16.7n 32.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...100ne 80se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 24/0600z 18.3n 34.8w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 80se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 21.5n 40.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 40se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 80se 80sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 26/0600z 24.5n 46.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Outlook valid 27/0600z 27.5n 51.5w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 12.8n 24.6w

next advisory at 22/1500z

$$
forecaster brown/Pasch
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#75 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:56 am

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 22, 2006


...Outer rain bands spreading over southernmost Cape Verde
Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cape Verde Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 12.8 north...longitude 24.6 west or about 140
miles...225 km...south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26
km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today.
On the forecast track...the depression will be passing just to
the southwest of the southwesternmost Cape Verde Islands in a few
hours. However...outer rain bands and squalls will continue to
affect the southern Cape Verde Islands today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches...with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches in areas of higher terrain...are possible over the
southern Cape Verde Islands in association with the depression.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...12.8 N...24.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.

$$
Forecaster brown/Pasch
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#76 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:57 am

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 22, 2006



the overall cloud pattern has increased slightly in organization
over the past few hours and new convection has been developing
close to the estimated center. However...satellite intensity
estimates remain 30 kt from TAFB and SAB...and 25 kt from AFWA.
Therefore...the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 285/14...slightly faster than
before. Global models remain in good agreement on a west-
northwest to northwestward motion south of a mid-tropospheric
ridge through 48 hours. Thereafter...the UKMET model depicts a
weaker cyclone...that is steered more westward by the low- to
mid-level flow. The GFS and GFDL depict a stronger system that
continues northwest into a weakness in the ridge that develops over
the central Atlantic. The official track forecast remains a little
left of the dynamical models early in the forecast period...but
is near the middle of the model guidance beyond 72 hours...and is
closest to the GFDL and CONU consensus.
The depression is forecast to remain in a favorable atmospheric
environment and over warm water for the next few days...so gradual
strengthening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the SHIPS guidance and is unchanged from the
previous advisory. If current trends continue...the depression
could become a tropical storm later this morning. It should be
noted that the SHIPS model halts strengthening at days 4 and 5 due
to increasing southerly shear associated with an upper-level trough
over the central Atlantic.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/0900z 12.8n 24.6w 30 kt
12hr VT 22/1800z 13.7n 26.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 23/0600z 15.1n 29.3w 40 kt
36hr VT 23/1800z 16.7n 32.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 24/0600z 18.3n 34.8w 50 kt
72hr VT 25/0600z 21.5n 40.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 26/0600z 24.5n 46.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 27/0600z 27.5n 51.5w 65 kt

$$
forecaster brown
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#77 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:42 am

WTNT34 KNHC 221139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
800 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 6 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N...25.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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TD4 advisory.....

#78 Postby sunnyday » Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:48 am

I just heard on the news that this storm will not be a threat to the US at all, so everyone can relax, right? 8-)
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#79 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:50 am

ok, read now and remember, THE MEDIA IS OFTEN WRONG!!!! if this thing devolpes slowly, TD4 will hit us!
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#80 Postby george_r_1961 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:07 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:ok, read now and remember, THE MEDIA IS OFTEN WRONG!!!! if this thing devolpes slowly, TD4 will hit us!



Its a longgg way from the US now and I think its too early to say that even if it doesnt develop rapidly it will make it this far west.

You are right about the media. Thats why my only 2 sources of tropical cyclone info are NHC and storm2k.
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