Tropical Storm Debby

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kenl01
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#81 Postby kenl01 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:51 am

I agree. I would never listen to the media, especially the national media about tropical systems. Their knowledge of TC's is extremely limited and sometimes even childish or agenda driven too.
I stick with the NHC discussions and pro met analysis from various weather boards only.
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#82 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:55 am

TD4 chances right now of affecting the U.S. is slim and none.
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#83 Postby kenl01 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:04 am

Stormcenter wrote:TD4 chances right now of affecting the U.S. is slim and none.


Great !
Time to get the sailboat and sunscreen out again 8-)
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#84 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:53 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 26.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 26.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 25.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.6N 28.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.1N 30.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.2N 36.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 25.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 26.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#85 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:54 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006

...DEPRESSION BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING
ON THE ISLAND OF FOGO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N...26.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...
AND 35 KT FROM SAB. SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT AND
SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. HIGHER VALUES IN THE
8Z QUIKSCAT PASS ARE BELIEVED TO BE RAIN CONTAMINATED.

THERE IS CLEAR ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE CENTER...BUT THE LOW CLOUD LINES
SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE DISPLACED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SLIGHTLY FAVOR A DISPLACED CENTER. SO WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/14.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHIFTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EASTWARD WITH INCREASED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE SEEM TO BE TWO
PRIMARY OPTIONS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS COULD
TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...IF THE SYSTEM CAN HANG TOGETHER.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE SYSTEM COULD SHEAR OFF AND THE WEAKENED
REMNANTS TURN WESTWARD. THE FORMER SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY THE GFS
AND GFDL...WHILE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS THE CHOICE OF THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS. FOR NOW...I'VE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE.

THERE IS A LOT OF STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE
INDICATE STRENGTHENING TO AT LEAST A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET OVER THE WARMEST
WATERS IT WILL SEE FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...I WONDER IF THE
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.6N 26.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.6N 28.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 16.1N 30.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.2N 36.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 42.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 48.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 28.0N 53.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#86 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:58 am

Reading the NHC 11:00 AM EDT Discussion I have a feeling this one could pull an Andrew; meaning get sheared, weaken, and then possibly recover late in the period as it heads more West. It has to be closely watched over the course of this upcoming week, and beyond, that much is certain.
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#87 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 27.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 27.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 26.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 29.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.2N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.8N 35.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.1N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 30.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 27.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#88 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST TUE AUG 22 2006

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...27.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

DESPITE SOME INCREASE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS LIMITED BANDING AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
BE UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE
THE CLASSIFICATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH VERY
SOON. WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING TODAY AND THE
SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SO I AM
ANTICIPATING ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT...WATERS WARM BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THEIR INTENSITY FORECASTS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED DOWN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/16...OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE RIGHT OF
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST A BETTER
CO-LOCATION OF THE MID AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS. THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE IN HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLE THE
DEPRESSION...WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF NOW
MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT.
THEY ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ALSO WITH THE GFDL
THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATING AN EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 14.5N 27.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 15.7N 29.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 32.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 18.8N 35.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.1N 38.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 27.0N 49.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 30.0N 53.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:46 pm

Image
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#90 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:46 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Reading the NHC 11:00 AM EDT Discussion I have a feeling this one could pull an Andrew; meaning get sheared, weaken, and then possibly recover late in the period as it heads more West. It has to be closely watched over the course of this upcoming week, and beyond, that much is certain.


When Andrew "pulled an Andrew" he was much, much closer to the U.S. Coast (around 26N 65W)......should TD4 get sheared and then recover and move west, it will still be a long long way from the U.S. (probably somewhere in the vicinity of 25-30N and 45-50W.) It's highly unlikely that it will be able to travel that far without eventually getting caught up in the westerlies.
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#91 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:16 pm

In less than a half an hour we will know if TD#4 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby or will NHC will leave it as a TD.
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#92 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:26 pm

369
WTNT34 KNHC 230225
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 22 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES...485 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N...28.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#93 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:29 pm

O.K., SouthFloridawx where did you get that? How do you get these early?
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#94 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:30 pm

well it's atlantic standard time so...
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#95 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:31 pm

I'm referring to the fact that it was posted here before it showed up on the NHC site.
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#96 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:31 pm

cpdaman wrote:well it's atlantic standard time so...


It's the same as Eastern Daylight Time. They usually come out early, not usually this early though.
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#97 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:31 pm

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 28.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.2N 31.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.9N 36.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.8N 44.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 26.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 28.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#98 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:32 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:I'm referring to the fact that it was posted here before it showed up on the NHC site.


The NHC site is the last place that gets updated. I use:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT4

or http://www.wunderground.com/tropical

They have it the second it comes out.
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#99 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:45 pm

754
WTNT44 KNHC 230244
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
ENOUGH CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER TO SUPPORT A
CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES. ALSO...THE PAST 5 AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
AND CIRA HAVE RANGED FROM 1003-1000 MB AND 38-43 KT. ALSO...A
22/2027Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...TD-4 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...THE
FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72H...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST OR LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE IN PART TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS. THE BAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
ATROCIOUS AT BEST WITH A LARGE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...SO THEY WERE NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.
THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING A WEAK
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI NORTHWEST OF DEBBY.
THIS FEATURE IS SO INDISTINCT AND MUCH SMALLER THAN THE CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE OF DEBBY THAT IT IS HARD TO LOCATE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE
UPPER-LOW AND DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE
UPPER-LOW AT BEST IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE SAME SPEED AS DEBBY...
ANY NORTHWARD INFLUENCE BY THIS SYSTEM ON DEBBY SHOULD BE LESS THAN
DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.

DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SSTS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF DEBBY SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE
SLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS
LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
26C SSTS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER 28C AND
WARMER SSTS...BUT ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.2N 28.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 16.2N 31.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 18.9N 36.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 39.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.8N 44.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 26.0N 50.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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SouthFloridawx
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#100 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:46 pm

A little different from Franklin.

Amazing discussion.
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