Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Ernesto

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:21 pm

viewtopic.php?t=85491&start=0

Thread #1

Ok folks here is the second thread to discuss about TD#1.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jun 11, 2006 7:36 am, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby Brandon007 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:22 pm

haha it does sound funny knowing what the floater is :D anyone know why its called a floater?
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#3 Postby 28_Storms » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:24 pm

Just saw the local affiliate on ABC here in Miami again - they're saying the storm doesn't look very promising to develop anytime soon.
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#4 Postby T-man » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:24 pm

It's "floating" in a geostationary orbit above Earth.
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#5 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:25 pm

I have been busy, so I haven't had a huge amount of time to look at this system, but to me it looks like a dominant center is trying to take shape much further north and a tad bit west of where the NHC admittedly slapped a center earlier.
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#6 Postby T-man » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:26 pm

:oops:
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#7 Postby 28_Storms » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:27 pm

ivanhater - you are exactly right. ABC in Miami put the center in the GOM far removed from the convection
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#8 Postby 28_Storms » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:29 pm

ABC also said the longer it takes for the convection to wrap around the center the less likely development will occur. Shear is really nasty out there.
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#9 Postby ronjon » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:30 pm

18Z GFDL places a CAT 1 Hurricane (80 mph) on the nature coast near Crystal River around 2 PM Monday. This is about 12 hrs faster than the GFS. I think its over doing it (I hope) on the intensity. I can't see with the shear that this storm will get much past a weak to moderate TS.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
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#10 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:30 pm

this thing better hurry up because its running out of time to intensify.one example is the incredible dry air mass in the gulf of mexico.

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby 28_Storms » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:31 pm

CAT 1?? I'll go out on a limb and say not gonna happen with TD1. Unless something really changes. But hey I said the samething about several 2005 storms!!
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#12 Postby jrod » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:32 pm

Im seeing a possible new LLC at 20N 85W. South of the Yucantan channel and appears to moving just E of due North. In the last 2 or 3 frames there appears to be some convection trying to fire around it. This could be the center we all have been looking for.
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#13 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:33 pm

28_Storms wrote:CAT 1?? How is that possible?


i really doupt this will reach cat 1.TD 1 has about a 12-24 hour window to intensify because once it reaches the norhtern gulf it will begin to run into increasing shear.
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#14 Postby skysummit » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:34 pm

jrod wrote:Im seeing a possible new LLC at 20N 85W. South of the Yucantan channel and appears to moving just E of due North. In the last 2 or 3 frames there appears to be some convection trying to fire around it. This could be the center we all have been looking for.


Thats's an MLC.
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#15 Postby T-man » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:34 pm

I see some dry air out there but there is plenty of moisture in the GOM to allow some further strengthening of this system.
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#16 Postby Cape Verde » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:34 pm

As long as the storm is in a high shear environment, it can't develop very well. I'm no good at predicting shear and whether it will continue to plague this storm.

Fortunately, we have a lot of experts here who can.

But I can note that the storm has managed to strengthen slightly in spite of the shear which is remarkable by itself. As long as the NHC continues to forecast that it will reach or maintain tropical storm status as it approaches Florida, that's good enough for me. In the past I've disagreed with them far more about projected path than projected intensity. They have a pretty good handle on that.
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#17 Postby jrod » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:35 pm

Are you sure it is a MLC?
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#18 Postby 28_Storms » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:35 pm

It is already facing shear Christy. The center is so far removed from the actual convection because of the shear.
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#19 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:36 pm

Cape Verde wrote:As long as the storm is in a high shear environment, it can't develop very well. I'm no good at predicting shear and whether it will continue to plague this storm.

Fortunately, we have a lot of experts here who can.

But I can note that the storm has managed to strengthen slightly in spite of the shear which is remarkable by itself. As long as the NHC continues to forecast that it will reach or maintain tropical storm status as it approaches Florida, that's good enough for me. In the past I've disagreed with them far more about projected path than projected intensity. They have a pretty good handle on that.


actually the strong wind the hurricane found were probably because of the tight pressure graidiant.think its spelled that way...lil tired. :wink:
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#20 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:36 pm

jrod wrote:Im seeing a possible new LLC at 20N 85W. South of the Yucantan channel and appears to moving just E of due North. In the last 2 or 3 frames there appears to be some convection trying to fire around it. This could be the center we all have been looking for.


looks to be in the mid levels...
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