Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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brunota2003
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#3521 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:31 pm

kenl01 wrote:But any system passing that close to this area should have produced much higher gusts last evening. 55mph sustained is more like it.
It must have had a very weak western side. I'm surprised how weak Ernesto really was on his western side. Sorry, I just cannot buy anything anymore concerning the maximum sustained winds these days. Too many hurricanes last year did the same thing, weaken dramatically before landfall. Not one hurricane lived up to its expectations at landfall last year as far as sustained winds were concerned.

Well, it's Sept.1 and not any hurricanes out there. What a weak season.

Next please...........
Max Winds are at 33 feet, not surface, typicially the worst winds are in the right front quadrant, which in this case was the NE quad, since that is where the movement AND winds combine, you were no where near the RFQ, you were on the left side of the storm, therefore the winds would not even be close to 70 MPH (which is obvious from what you are saying) plus you were not near the center of the storm, where the worst winds were, so while you may not think the winds were near 70 MPH, they actually were on the east side. You have no proof that the winds were way below 70 MPH through out the entire storm other than what you THINK the winds should be...also, so no one gets confused, the storm motion is already added into the winds, therefore the Maximum Sustained Winds are the highest winds found in the entire storm...some good reading on Max winds first, then on how motion affects the winds:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html
In conclusion, the winds were alot weaker on the west side due to the motion of the storm, the max winds on the west side, after taking 70 MPH and subtracting the motion of the storm, were 52-53 MPH, and that was near the center...since the center was so far from land, those winds never even got close to shore until around landfall...
To back up my 33 feet claim (first paragraph on the first link above):
The National Hurricane Center uses a 1 min averaging time for reporting the sustained (i.e. relatively long-lasting) winds. The maximum sustained wind mentioned in the advisories that NHC issues for tropical storms and hurricanes are the highest 1 min surface winds occuring within the circulation of the system. These "surface" winds are those observed (or, more often, estimated) to occur at the standard meteorological height of 10 m (33 ft) in an unobstructed exposure (i.e., not blocked by buildings or trees).
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#3522 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:03 pm

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 34 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL...NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW
JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA.

AT 11 PM EDT FRIDAY...03Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR
20 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA.

THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS NOW BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 10 PM EDT

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.65
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 5.84
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43
NORFOLK 10.00
UPPER SHERANDO 9.47
LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25
CHESAPEAKE 8.93
TOANO 8.73
JAMESTOWN 8.25
CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00
GWYNN ISLAND 8.00
DEVILS KNOB 7.80
CARSON 7.70
WINDSOR 7.63
YALE 7.50
PORTSMOUTH 7.11
HAMPTON 7.00

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
CHARLES TOWN 2.25
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

SNOW HILL 7.19
HOLLYWOOD 6.13
PRINCESS ANNE 5.90
SALISBURY 5.60
CAROLINE 5.38

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT FRIDAY POSITION...37.3 NORTH...76.8
WEST...NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SYSTEM.

TRIMARCO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 37.3N 76.8W
12HR VT 02/1200Z 38.3N 76.9W
24HR VT 03/0000Z 39.6N 77.2W
36HR VT 03/1200Z 41.1N 77.9W
48HR VT 04/0000Z 42.4N 78.9W
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Coredesat

#3523 Postby Coredesat » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:55 am

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MARYLAND.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA..NEW
YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

AT 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...09Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...AND 76.7 LONGITUDE WEST OR
10 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.82
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43
UPPER SHERANDO 10.07
NORFOLK 10.00
LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25
CHESAPEAKE 8.93
TOANO 8.73
DEVILS KNOB 8.40
JAMESTOWN 8.25
CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00
GWYNN ISLAND 8.00
CARSON 7.70
WINDSOR 7.63
YALE 7.50
PORTSMOUTH 7.11
HAMPTON 7.00

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
CHARLES TOWN 2.33
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

SNOW HILL 7.19
HOLLYWOOD 6.13
PRINCESS ANNE 5.90
SALISBURY 6.80
CAROLINE 5.38
OCEAN CITY 4.38

...DELAWARE...

GEORGETOWN 4.36

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...37.4 NORTH...76.7
WEST...NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT SATURDAY. REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SYSTEM.

PEREIRA

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 37.4N 76.7W
12HR VT 02/1800Z 38.9N 76.5W
24HR VT 03/0600Z 40.7N 76.7W
36HR VT 03/1200Z 42.8N 77.6W
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#3524 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:24 am

000
WTNT35 KWNH 021510
TCPAT5


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE STARTING TO MOVE NORTH...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND DELAWARE.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MARYLAND.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
WESTERN NEW YORK.

WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT.

AT 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...15Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.8
WEST OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER WATER AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB OR 29.76 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.82
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43
UPPER SHERANDO 10.11
NORFOLK 10.00
WILLIAMSBURG 9.51
LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25
CHESAPEAKE 8.93
TOANO 8.73
DEVILS KNOB 8.56
JAMESTOWN 8.25
CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00
GWYNN ISLAND 8.00
SKYLAND 7.80
CARSON 7.70
WINDSOR 7.63
YALE 7.50
PORTSMOUTH 7.11
HAMPTON 7.00

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
CHARLES TOWN 2.33
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

LEONARDTOWN 10.08
SNOW HILL 7.19
SALISBURY 6.80
HOLLYWOOD 6.13
PRINCESS ANNE 5.90
OCEAN CITY 4.38

...DELAWARE...

GEORGETOWN 4.50
DOVER 2.82

...PENNSYLVANIA...

PORT ROYAL 2.90
RAINSBURG 2.44
MARYSVILLE 2.40
ALTOONA 2.35
EVERETT 2.32
HARRISBURG 1.69

...NEW JERSEY...

MCGUIRE AFB 1.49


RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...38.7 NORTH...AND 76.8
WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT
50 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SYSTEM.

OTTO/MUSHER

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 38.3N 76.8W
12HR VT 03/0000Z 39.9N 76.8W
24HR VT 03/1200Z 42.0N 77.1W
36HR VT 04/0000Z 44.0N 77.2W


$$

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#3525 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:52 pm

000
WTNT35 KWNH 022047
TCPAT5


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...EASTERN
VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN NEW YORK.

WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT.

AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR
20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND
A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR
COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB OR 29.83
INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 PM EDT
SATURDAY

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.82
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43
UPPER SHERANDO 10.11
NORFOLK 10.00
WILLIAMSBURG 9.51
LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25
CHESAPEAKE 8.93
TOANO 8.73
DEVILS KNOB 8.56
CONCORD 8.54
JAMESTOWN 8.25
APPLE ORCHARD 8.23
CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00
GWYNN ISLAND 8.00

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
MARTINSBURG 3.08
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
CHARLES TOWN 2.33
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

LEONARDTOWN 10.08
CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48
BRANDYWINE 7.54
SNOW HILL 7.19
HOLLYWOOD 6.92
PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81
SALISBURY 6.80
HOLLYWOOD 6.13
PRINCESS ANNE 5.90
BALTIMORE 5.00

...DELAWARE...

JONES CROSSING 4.76
GEORGETOWN 4.51
REDDEN 4.35
GEORGETOWN 4.29
BRIDGEVILLE 3.98
BETHANY BEACH 3.61
PRIME HOOK 3.59
HARBESON 3.34
DOVER 2.82
KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81
BLACKBIRD 2.77

...PENNSYLVANIA...

PINDLETON 4.36
FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.04
ANSONVILLE 3.92
WILLIAMSPORT 3.38
LILLY 3.32
DAUPHIN 3.22
DECATUR 3.16
HEPBURNVILLE 3.16
LONELY ACRES 3.16
CROWN 3.04
KRISLUND CAMP 3.00
PORT ROYAL 2.90
ALTOONA 2.90
SELLINSGROVE 2.86
HARRISBURG 2.73

...NEW JERSEY...

CHATSWORTH 3.33
WOODBINE 2.66
ESTELLE MANOR 2.52
FORSYTHE 2.48
HAMMONTON 2.43
ATLANTIC CITY 2.37
MCQUIRE AFB 2.25
MOUNT HOLLY 2.20
NEW LISBON 2.05
ATSION 2.00

...NEW YORK...

EAST WOODHULL 1.78
TUSCARORA 1.52
JASPER 1.44


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...39.4 NORTH...AND 76.9
WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT
40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SYSTEM.

TRIMARCO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 39.4N 76.9W
12HR VT 03/0600Z 41.3N 77.5W
24HR VT 03/1800Z 43.6N 77.7W
36HR VT 04/0600Z 45.1N 76.7W...OVER CANADA


$$


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#3526 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:57 pm

WTNT35 KWNH 030252
TCPAT5


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 38 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAIN
DIMINISHING...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT.

AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY...03Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR
50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND
A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 15 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR
COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB OR 29.94
INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.82
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

WAKEFIELD 10.62
VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43
UPPER SHERANDO 10.11
NORFOLK 10.00
WILLIAMSBURG 9.51
LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25
CHESAPEAKE 8.93
TOANO 8.73
DEVILS KNOB 8.56
CONCORD 8.54
JAMESTOWN 8.25
APPLE ORCHARD 8.23
CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00
GWYNNS ISLAND 8.00
WEEMS 8.00

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
BLOOMERY 3.10
MARTINSBURG 3.09
INWOOD 2.75
BUNKER HILL 2.61
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
CHARLES TOWN 2.33
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

LEONARDTOWN 10.08
CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48
BRANDYWINE 7.54
SNOW HILL 7.19
HOLLYWOOD 6.92
PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81
SALISBURY 6.80
HOLLYWOOD 6.13
PRINCESS ANNE 5.90
BALTIMORE 5.00

...DELAWARE...

JONES CROSSING 5.15
REDDEN 4.52
GEORGETOWN ARPT 4.50
BRIDGEVILLE 4.15
BETHANY BEACH 4.06
WOODSIDE 3.75
PRIME HOOK 3.73
HARBESON 3.34
BLACKBIRD 3.01
DOVER 2.82
KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81

...PENNSYLVANIA...

PINDLETON 4.36
FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.12
ANSONVILLE 3.92
WILLIAMSPORT 3.38
LILLY 3.32
DAUPHIN 3.22
DECATUR 3.16
HEPBURNVILLE 3.16
LONELY ACRES 3.16
CROWN 3.04
KRISLUND CAMP 3.00
PORT ROYAL 2.90
ALTOONA 2.90
SELLINSGROVE 2.86
HARRISBURG 2.73

...NEW JERSEY...

MARGATE 4.70
CHATSWORTH 4.20
CHARLOTTEBURG 3.64
MOUNT HOLLY 3.30
CAPE MAY 3.29
NEW LISBON 3.20
LAKE HOPATCONG 3.20
BASKING RIDGE 3.12
PEQUANNOCK 3.08
WOODBINE 2.98
ATLANTIC CITY 2.87
WILLINGBORO 2.77

...NEW YORK...

KATLIN 3.00
PINE CITY 3.00
ERIN 2.96
WOODHULL 2.76
TUSCARORA 2.64
BELMONT 2.45
SOUTHPORT 2.42
PORTAGEVILLE 2.30
CAMERON HILLS 2.15
BIG FLATS 2.04
LOCKPORT 2.00
PERRY 2.00


REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...40.7 NORTH...AND 76.9
WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT
35 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO TO BE
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
SYSTEM.

TRIMARCO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 40.7N 76.9W
12HR VT 03/1200Z 42.0N 76.9W
24HR VT 04/0000Z 43.6N 77.1W...OVER CANADA


$$



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