Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

#81 Postby **Dionne** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:27 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:anyone see the new BAMM run? Is this credible?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

If you compare the 4PM and 10PM advisories it seems like that is just what is happening. Center is now a little more north and a little more west.

Edit.....sorry did not see the yellow all the way out....seems a bit confusing....

Weatherfreak14 · #82 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:30 pm

Yea, this thing has the models switching all over the place. Cant wait for the next NHC forcast for the storm.

#83 Postby **george_r_1961** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:32 pm

Im not sure we even have a TD at this point..tend to agree with Derek Ortt. What im seeing is a badly sheared mess.

Weatherfreak14 · #84 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:34 pm

Yes I kinda agree on that. Looks not to be much of a depression. Lets just see in the 11pm adv. in 15 min

wxmann_91 · #85 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:36 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:anyone see the new BAMM run? Is this credible?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

No, initialized way too far north and east.

28_Storms · #86 Postby **28_Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:37 pm

Still expected to be a tropical storm tomorrow per NHC.

#87 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:38 pm

It seems to me that there is some convection firing closer to the LLC. Am I seeing things?

28_Storms · #88 Postby **28_Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:40 pm

THIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING.

#89 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:43 pm

benny wrote:
Political upgrades? You have any proof of that? Point me to a good instance where TS winds weren't found and yet it was upgraded. That is a pretty strong indictment against TPC without any proof. Yes we all know of Grace but is that because of politics or meteorology?

I didn't say it was wrong to upgrade a system that was of questionable TS strength. Grace a few years ago off the upper TX coast, for example. The plane could not find any sign of an LLC. It was quite clearly an open wave in an area of numerous obs, yet it was upgraded because it was producing TS-force winds in squalls over the offshore oil rigs. Tropical waves produce TS-force winds in squalls, but that doesn't make them "tropical storms". But if it helps to get the public to recognize that the approaching sysem could be dangerous, there's nothing wrong with giving it a name. I'm not indicting anyone. I know the guys at the NHC, they're good forecasters and I respect them. They're job is to protect the public, period. Whatever they have to do to get the public alerted is fine.

28_Storms · #90 Postby **28_Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:43 pm

Looks like a decent chance of a moderate tropical storm. The warm loop current could really help mitigate the shear and dry air.

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:44 pm

A burst of convection like what happened this morning should bring TD 1 to TS. I would expect tropical storm status by 11 AM EDT tomorrow if it erupts like it did today.

Weatherfreak14 · #92 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:44 pm

yea but I doubt it will be a huge tropicial storm, but neverless a tropicial storm.

HurricaneHunter914 · #93 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:46 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Has the center reformed near the SW tip of Cuba? Right now the NHC has the center in the GOM but I just don't see it.

#94 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:47 pm

I am not even sure this will get to Tropical storm status. I have seen no signs of organization today. The previous twenty four hours had shown an overall increase in organization. This has a ways to go to get to Alberto. I am not counting it out, but just being realistic.

Weatherfreak14 · #95 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:
benny wrote:
Political upgrades? You have any proof of that? Point me to a good instance where TS winds weren't found and yet it was upgraded. That is a pretty strong indictment against TPC without any proof. Yes we all know of Grace but is that because of politics or meteorology?

I didn't say it was wrong to upgrade a system that was of questionable TS strength. Grace a few years ago off the upper TX coast, for example. The plane could not find any sign of an LLC. It was quite clearly an open wave in an area of numerous obs, yet it was upgraded because it was producing TS-force winds in squalls over the offshore oil rigs. Tropical waves produce TS-force winds in squalls, but that doesn't make them "tropical storms". But if it helps to get the public to recognize that the approaching sysem could be dangerous, there's nothing wrong with giving it a name. I'm not indicting anyone. I know the guys at the NHC, they're good forecasters and I respect them. They're job is to protect the public, period. Whatever they have to do to get the public alerted is fine.

Sometimes I feel NHC has to scream Cat 4 or 5 to get people attention, cuz most people will only thing 60mph winds will do nothing. But it can. Thats how most people die these dayz.

#96 Postby **george_r_1961** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A burst of convection like what happened this morning should bring TD 1 to TS. I would expect tropical storm status by 11 AM EDT tomorrow if it erupts like it did today.

Sandy this system is fast reaching "the point of no return" If it doesnt get some good convection near the "center" in the next several hours in my opinion TD 1 will be history.

HurricaneHunter914 · #97 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:49 pm

By history do you mean disappated or turned into a TS?

#98 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:50 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Has the center reformed near the SW tip of Cuba? Right now the NHC has the center in the GOM but I just don't see it.

You won't see an LLC on IR imagery, but that MLC near 25.7N/84.9W looks quite impressive. It could well take over and develop an LLC beneath it as it moves fairly briskly to the NNE overnight. That would mean quite a shift to the right in the forecast track, common with such a sheared system.

#99 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:51 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A burst of convection like what happened this morning should bring TD 1 to TS. I would expect tropical storm status by 11 AM EDT tomorrow if it erupts like it did today.

Time will run out Sandy for the system to strenghen if any due to increasing shear as more north it moves in latitud.IMO the window for TD#1 to become Tropical Storm Alberto may be between the next 6-12 hours.

HurricaneHunter914 · #100 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:52 pm

So you think that a reformation of a center near that area could be possible?

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

Who is online