Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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ROCK
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#61 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:hey opalstorm u might be interested in looking at this FORCAST WIND SWATH MAP.

Image


The only problem with that wind swath is it doesn't account for frictional effects over land. It's unlikely that there will be much, if any, inland wind penetration of TS force winds. In fact, TD 1 may not even make it to a TS before it crosses Florida. But I suspect the NHC may do one of their "political upgrades", calling it a TS even though TS force winds aren't really found just to make people notice it -- not that that's such a bad thing as far as alerting the public, which is their main job. It does tend to inflate the count, though.

Notice the NHC talking about increasing shear farther north along the track? Any more shear and there won't be anything left of this thing.




excellent obs there WX57...I so agree. TD1 needs to consolidate with a true center and move under the convection. Personally, I think the NHC was very generous with the TD upgrade with such a broad area. We shall see what it does tonight.
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CHRISTY

#62 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:00 pm

hey guys there has been lil burst of convection in the last hour or so,i think its more closer to were the LLC is.lets see if it continues.

here's a pic....

Image
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HURAKAN
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:02 pm

I can't believe you guys think that the NHC would upgrade a system for political reasons. That's just unprofessional and unethical.
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#64 Postby benny » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:hey opalstorm u might be interested in looking at this FORCAST WIND SWATH MAP.

Image


The only problem with that wind swath is it doesn't account for frictional effects over land. Also, there probably won't be any TS force winds left of the track as all squalls will be right of the track. It's unlikely that there will be much, if any, inland wind penetration of TS force winds. In fact, TD 1 may not even make it to a TS before it crosses Florida. But I suspect the NHC may do one of their "political upgrades", calling it a TS even though TS force winds aren't really found just to make people notice it -- not that that's such a bad thing as far as alerting the public, which is their main job. It does tend to inflate the count, though.


Political upgrades? You have any proof of that? Point me to a good instance where TS winds weren't found and yet it was upgraded. That is a pretty strong indictment against TPC without any proof. Yes we all know of Grace but is that because of politics or meteorology?
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ROCK
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#65 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:06 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I can't believe you guys think that the NHC would upgrade a system for political reasons. That's just unprofessional and unethical.



Don't think he was being unprofessional given he is a pro-met. I have thought many times that the NHC was very generous in their upgrades.
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#66 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm

BTW, officially TS force winds have been found with this system, but it is still too un-organized to become Alberto.
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#67 Postby stormtruth » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:08 pm

How many tornadoes will TD1 spawn? Anyone have a guess? 0 5 10 20 more?
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cheezyWXguy
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#68 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:10 pm

id give the estimate of 25...a guess...not any kind of prediction
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#69 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:11 pm

center is in view on cuban radar!
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#70 Postby TS Zack » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:12 pm

No pro-met is as good as the guys at the NHC. Just like SPC.
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#71 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:12 pm

cheezywxman wrote:id give the estimate of 25...a guess...not any kind of prediction

No way. System is very weak, and it will only be traveling over a small strip of land (the FL Peninsula). 0-5 and that may be generous.
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#72 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:12 pm

stormtruth wrote:How many tornadoes will TD1 spawn? Anyone have a guess? 0 5 10 20 more?


Depends on the track. If it follows the coastline, 0
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#73 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:12 pm

TPNT KGWC 110013
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
B. 10/2331Z (39)
C. 22.5N/9
D. 86.2W/8
E. FIVE/GOES-12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/3HRS -10/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 80NM WSW OF DG YIELDING A DT OF
1.0.
FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS 1.0.

AODT: 1.8 (SHEAR)

DYER

Above is the latest update of the sat estimates by the Air Force folks.They give a 1.0 T Number to the system.
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#74 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:13 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:center is in view on cuban radar!


Link please?
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cheezyWXguy
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#75 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:15 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:id give the estimate of 25...a guess...not any kind of prediction

No way. System is very weak, and it will only be traveling over a small strip of land (the FL Peninsula). 0-5 and that may be generous.


o dunno...remember bonnie of 2004...disorganized 50 mph TS produced a lot more than 0-5 tornadoes
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#76 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:16 pm

wxman57 said there a chance this might hit florida sooner then expected?if youre on here wxman57 give me some more insight if thats cool with u.
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#77 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:19 pm

its a long link. just south of cuba you have a line going from north to south of thunderstorms. look to the left of the bottom of that line and will see the center spinning around.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif
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wzrgirl1
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#78 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:19 pm

anyone see the new BAMM run? Is this credible?


http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html
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#79 Postby Cape Verde » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:23 pm

I don't think the BAMM runs are ever credible in the Gulf. They do okay for storms coming into the Caribbean from Africa.
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CHRISTY

#80 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:27 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:its a long link. just south of cuba you have a line going from north to south of thunderstorms. look to the left of the bottom of that line and will see the center spinning around.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif


i just saw that james...pretty close to the newest flare up of thunderstorms.
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