Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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Gorky
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#3361 Postby Gorky » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:36 pm

Winds don't warrant an upgrade, despite pressure likely being down..
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#3362 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:36 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 312337
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 24 KNHC
2324. 3301N 07830W 01522 5103 339 020 196 180 022 01449 0000000000
2325 3302N 07830W 01524 5105 337 019 196 180 020 01451 0000000000
2325. 3304N 07830W 01524 5103 353 015 196 180 016 01452 0000000000
2326 3305N 07830W 01525 5103 010 012 194 176 013 01453 0000000000
2326. 3307N 07830W 01524 5100 023 010 194 174 011 01455 0000000000
2327 3309N 07830W 01523 5100 051 009 184 180 010 01454 0000000000
2327. 3310N 07830W 01526 5100 087 010 170 170 012 01457 0000000000
2328 3312N 07829W 01523 5099 097 015 166 166 017 01455 0000000000
2328. 3313N 07829W 01526 5094 081 023 164 164 026 01463 0000000000
2329 3315N 07829W 01520 5088 066 031 160 160 033 01462 0000000000
2329. 3317N 07829W 01528 5085 072 034 164 164 035 01474 0000000000
2330 3318N 07829W 01522 5083 069 033 166 166 035 01471 0000000000
2330. 3320N 07829W 01525 5080 071 038 156 156 040 01476 0000000000
2331 3321N 07829W 01523 5077 069 039 158 158 040 01477 0000000000
2331. 3323N 07829W 01527 5074 073 040 160 160 041 01483 0000000000
2332 3324N 07828W 01521 5071 077 043 160 160 045 01481 0000000000
2332. 3326N 07828W 01524 5068 080 041 158 158 042 01487 0000000000
2333 3327N 07828W 01527 5064 086 045 158 158 047 01493 0000000000
2333. 3329N 07828W 01521 5061 088 045 164 164 046 01490 0000000000
2334 3330N 07828W 01526 5057 091 042 164 164 043 01499 0000000000
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#3363 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:37 pm

I'm going to check the Nexrad data to see if that helps at all. Right now I think we have a hurricane.
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#3364 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:37 pm

546
UZNT13 KNHC 312335
XXAA 8123/ 99330 70784 11638 99988 27010 28516 00607 ///// 92584
25027 85326 20400 88999 77999
31313 09608 82322
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 3301N07842W 2324 AEV 20604 DLM WND 28516 987982 WL1
50 28516 078 =
XXBB 81238 99330 70784 11638 00988 27010 11914 24634 22858 22207
33850 20400 44843 18400
21212 00988 28516 11982 28015 22843 31510
31313 09608 82322
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 3301N07842W 2324 AEV 20604 DLM WND 28516 987982 WL1
50 28516 078 =
;
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#3365 Postby huricanwatcher » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:38 pm

oh come on the suspense ......
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#3366 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:38 pm

looks like pressure is down to 988mb
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#3367 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:39 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:546
UZNT13 KNHC 312335
XXAA 8123/ 99330 70784 11638 99988 27010 28516 00607 ///// 92584
25027 85326 20400 88999 77999
31313 09608 82322
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 3301N07842W 2324 AEV 20604 DLM WND 28516 987982 WL1
50 28516 078 =
XXBB 81238 99330 70784 11638 00988 27010 11914 24634 22858 22207
33850 20400 44843 18400
21212 00988 28516 11982 28015 22843 31510
31313 09608 82322
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 3301N07842W 2324 AEV 20604 DLM WND 28516 987982 WL1
50 28516 078 =
;


Drosponde shows pressure in the eye at 988mb with 16kts surface wind. Pressure probably now 987mb!
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#3368 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:39 pm

Come on Cindy, I mean Ernesto :)
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#3369 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:40 pm

The dropsonde decodes to 988mb with 10kt winds if I've eyeballed it right . . . so probably 987mb is more accurate. Don't see how that can't be a hurricane right now, unless maybe the winds are slow to catch up.
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#3370 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:40 pm

and if you look, if I'm not mistaken, the dropsonde had 10 knot winds when it recorded the 988, so its one millibar for every 10 knots right? so 987 would be correct?
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#3371 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:40 pm

URNT12 KNHC 312338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:22:20Z
B. 33 deg 00 min N
078 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1342 m
D. 65 kt
E. 126 deg 073 nm
F. 211 deg 063 kt
G. 123 deg 046 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 19 C/ 1533 m
J. 20 C/ 1520 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 23:08:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 118 / 23NM
GOOD RADAR BANDING STARTING TO FORM
;

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#3372 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:41 pm

WE NOW HAVE A HURRICANE!!!!
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#3373 Postby huricanwatcher » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:41 pm

should we applaud or cry ... :roll: :roll:
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#3374 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:41 pm

URNT12 KNHC 312338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:22:20Z
B. 33 deg 00 min N
078 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1342 m
D. 65 kt
E. 126 deg 073 nm
F. 211 deg 063 kt
G. 123 deg 046 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 19 C/ 1533 m
J. 20 C/ 1520 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 23:08:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 118 / 23NM
GOOD RADAR BANDING STARTING TO FORM
;

Yep,And good radar banding.
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#3375 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:42 pm

West side of storm is tightening up with reds blossoming on IR...once again reminds me of Cindy...let's see if NHC calls this one a cane now or later
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#3376 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:42 pm

It's safe to say we now have Hurricane Ernesto. If the NHC doesn't catch it for the 8pm advisory, I think they will on the TCR.
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#3377 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:42 pm

rnbaida wrote:WE NOW HAVE A HURRICANE!!!!


Not officially and please keep commets in out this thread.
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#3378 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:43 pm

Comments to recon discussion thread.
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#3379 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:43 pm

It's safe to say we now have Hurricane Ernesto. If the NHC doesn't catch it for the 8pm advisory, I think they will on the TCR.
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rnbaida

#3380 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:44 pm

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



...Ernesto remains just below hurricane strength...rainbands moving
onto the coast of the Carolinas...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Edisto
Beach to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.2 north...longitude 78.3 west or about 75
miles...125 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph...29 km/hr.
On this track...the center of Ernesto will cross the North Carolina
coast tonight.

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph...
110 km/hr...with higher gusts. While little change in strength is
expected before landfall...any strengthening during the next few
hours would bring Ernesto to the coast as a category one hurricane.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
mainly to the east of the center. Gusts to tropical storm-force are
spreading onto the North Carolina coast near Cape Fear.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
was 988 mb...29.18 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeastern
South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches...
through Saturday. These amounts could cause life-threatening flash
floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina through
tonight.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...33.2 N...78.3 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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