Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

ronjon · #41 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:03 pm

I dunno, I thought a couple of hours ago TD1 was starting to get its act together. After looking the the IR, the cloud tops are warming and the convective pattern is shrinking. The broad LLC and 1004 mb pressure argues that it won't dissipate but it looks like its on life support now.

cheezyWXguy · #42 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:04 pm

i think the real center is the one at 25N, 85W...convection seems to be working around it

jabber · #43 Postby **jabber** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:04 pm

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

Sound almost subtropical....

Cape Verde · #44 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:06 pm

Interesting, Christy. The first two models show this storm being significantly stronger once it emerges in the Atlantic.

Assuming that I'm reading them correctly....

CHRISTY · #45 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:08 pm

SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOT ALL MODELS.(ZOOMED IN.)

28_Storms · #46 Postby **28_Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:09 pm

ship up to 57 kts wow

WindRunner · #47 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:11 pm

Just a reminder that the SHIPS model does not account for land interaction of a storm, and the DSHP should always be used over the SHIPS model when available, as DSHP is identical to SHIPS with the exception that it accounts for the land a storm moves over.

CHRISTY · #48 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:13 pm

GUYS THIS IS THE DVTS TAFB SATELLITE FIXES 01L...

28_Storms · #49 Postby **28_Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:15 pm

Thanks WindRunner!

#50 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:18 pm

I guess it will remain TD 1 @ 11 PM.

Cape Verde · #51 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:20 pm

WindRunner wrote:Just a reminder that the SHIPS model does not account for land interaction of a storm, and the DSHP should always be used over the SHIPS model when available, as DSHP is identical to SHIPS with the exception that it accounts for the land a storm moves over.

Thank you! It is information like this that keeps me coming back to this forum. I've learned far more here than I could ever learned anywhere else than a university.

CHRISTY · #52 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:20 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I guess it will remain TD 1 @ 11 PM.

Thats what iam seeing also.

CHRISTY · #53 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:21 pm

Cape Verde wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Just a reminder that the SHIPS model does not account for land interaction of a storm, and the DSHP should always be used over the SHIPS model when available, as DSHP is identical to SHIPS with the exception that it accounts for the land a storm moves over.

Thank you! It is information like this that keeps me coming back to this forum. I've learned far more here than I could ever learned anywhere else than a university.

hey what about the people that post the graphics? :wink:

Cape Verde · #54 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:24 pm

LOL, all you guys (and gals) are terrific. You've posted some great graphics today.

Opal storm · #55 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:25 pm

CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOT ALL MODELS.(ZOOMED IN.)

Are these the latest models?

CHRISTY · #56 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:32 pm

Opal storm wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOT ALL MODELS.(ZOOMED IN.)
Are these the latest models?

as of now yes. iam waiting for the new ones at 11:00pm

CHRISTY · #57 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:37 pm

Opal storm wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOT ALL MODELS.(ZOOMED IN.)
Are these the latest models?

hey opalstorm u might be interested in looking at this FORCAST WIND SWATH MAP.

Opal storm · #58 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:43 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
Opal storm wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOT ALL MODELS.(ZOOMED IN.)
Are these the latest models?

hey opalstorm u might be interested in looking at this FORCAST WIND SWATH MAP.

Thanks for posting that. 8-)

Looks like I should be on the nicer side of this thing,but it's going to be quite a mess for the peninsula and big bend.

#59 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:47 pm

CHRISTY wrote:hey opalstorm u might be interested in looking at this FORCAST WIND SWATH MAP.

The only problem with that wind swath is it doesn't account for frictional effects over land. Also, there probably won't be any TS force winds left of the track as all squalls will be right of the track. It's unlikely that there will be much, if any, inland wind penetration of TS force winds. In fact, TD 1 may not even make it to a TS before it crosses Florida. But I suspect the NHC may do one of their "political upgrades", calling it a TS even though TS force winds aren't really found just to make people notice it -- not that that's such a bad thing as far as alerting the public, which is their main job. It does tend to inflate the count, though.

Notice the NHC talking about increasing shear farther north along the track? Any more shear and there won't be anything left of this thing.

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:55 pm

It does tend to inflate the count, though

Do you think that they are going to upgrade to inflate the numbers for the season and cause the NOAA forecast to look good at the end of the season?

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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