Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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bjackrian
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#3401 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:58 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
bjackrian wrote:
WindRunner wrote:EDIT: I see we have some comments while I was posting . . . I wouldn't quite say degrading, at least not yet. NW quad still looks very intense and still intensifying on radar.


Agree that it's still very intense on the NW side...just not as symmetrical as it used to be.

And you're right about the temp profile...pressure up, but good temp profile and a decent eye--who knows what he'll do!
If you are basing your convection intensity assessment on radar images, remember the radar will be attenuated by the intense convection on th NW side. It may not penetrate to the SE side.


True, but I think even in IR imagery the tops are higher to the northwest...if I'm looking at the true center, that is.
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#3402 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:00 pm

Even though the beam does not accurately penetrate through the storm in some cases (the NW quad isn't a problem here as the radar is located to the NE - it's MHX), the SE quad does look weaker compared to a couple of hours ago.
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#3403 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:05 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010059
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 08 KNHC
0046 3209N 08520W 05794 0293 238 010 075 391 011 06101 0000000000
0046. 3210N 08518W 05789 0293 241 010 075 371 010 06097 0000000000
0047 3210N 08515W 05792 0294 240 012 073 375 013 06101 0000000000
0047. 3211N 08513W 05791 0295 232 013 071 417 013 06102 0000000000
0048 3212N 08510W 05790 0294 235 013 071 425 014 06099 0000000000
0048. 3213N 08508W 05793 0294 221 014 071 411 014 06101 0000000000
0049 3214N 08505W 05791 0293 221 015 075 231 016 06100 0000000000
0049. 3214N 08503W 05791 0294 220 015 077 193 016 06100 0000000000
0050 3215N 08500W 05792 0293 226 014 077 205 015 06100 0000000000
0050. 3216N 08458W 05791 0293 218 016 073 231 018 06099 0000000000
0051 3217N 08456W 05790 0292 223 017 075 227 017 06097 0000000000
0051. 3218N 08453W 05792 0293 229 015 075 241 016 06100 0000000000
0052 3219N 08451W 05790 0294 235 013 075 299 013 06099 0000000000
0052. 3220N 08448W 05792 0293 233 012 077 335 013 06100 0000000000
0053 3222N 08446W 05791 0292 235 011 077 339 011 06098 0000000000
0053. 3223N 08444W 05791 0293 225 012 077 321 013 06099 0000000000
0054 3224N 08441W 05791 0293 221 013 077 243 013 06100 0000000000
0054. 3225N 08439W 05793 0293 223 012 075 259 012 06100 0000000000
0055 3226N 08437W 05790 0292 227 013 075 257 013 06097 0000000000
0055. 3227N 08434W 05792 0292 231 015 075 289 015 06099 0000000000
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#3404 Postby Stormavoider » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:05 pm

WindRunner wrote:Even though the beam does not accurately penetrate through the storm in some cases (the NW quad isn't a problem here as the radar is located to the NE - it's MHX), the SE quad does look weaker compared to a couple of hours ago.

Look at Wilmington it is closer to the center and better detects lower level activity.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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#3405 Postby Stormavoider » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:08 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Even though the beam does not accurately penetrate through the storm in some cases (the NW quad isn't a problem here as the radar is located to the NE - it's MHX), the SE quad does look weaker compared to a couple of hours ago.

Look at Wilmington it is closer to the center and better detects lower level activity.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

ps. The radar site is well SW of the city
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#3406 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:08 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010109
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 09 KNHC
0056 3229N 08432W 05789 0292 236 015 075 347 016 06096 0000000000
0056. 3230N 08430W 05794 0293 229 014 073 381 015 06101 0000000000
0057 3231N 08428W 05792 0295 228 011 073 367 013 06101 0000000000
0057. 3232N 08425W 05790 0293 225 011 077 257 012 06097 0000000000
0058 3234N 08423W 05794 0292 223 012 073 311 014 06100 0000000000
0058. 3235N 08421W 05790 0292 228 014 073 375 015 06097 0000000000
0059 3236N 08418W 05791 0292 229 014 071 317 014 06098 0000000000
0059. 3237N 08416W 05790 0291 227 014 071 339 015 06096 0000000000
0100 3238N 08414W 05793 0292 225 013 071 305 013 06100 0000000000
0100. 3239N 08411W 05790 0293 226 013 071 361 014 06097 0000000000
0101 3239N 08409W 05790 0294 226 014 071 357 014 06099 0000000000
0101. 3240N 08406W 05793 0293 231 014 071 341 014 06100 0000000000
0102 3241N 08404W 05790 0292 228 016 071 257 016 06097 0000000000
0102. 3242N 08401W 05790 0292 221 015 073 203 017 06097 0000000000
0103 3243N 08358W 05794 0293 229 016 075 179 017 06102 0000000000
0103. 3243N 08356W 05788 0292 228 015 075 249 016 06095 0000000000
0104 3244N 08353W 05793 0293 222 016 073 137 017 06101 0000000000
0104. 3245N 08351W 05791 0294 226 015 075 223 016 06100 0000000000
0105 3245N 08348W 05792 0296 227 014 075 197 015 06102 0000000000
0105. 3246N 08345W 05790 0298 227 011 075 269 012 06102 0000000000
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#3407 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:09 pm

when is the next vortex?
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#3408 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:09 pm

I heard it should be shortly.
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#3409 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:10 pm

Next recon is getting there...just about over the middle of Georgia as of 0105 HDOB.

About one hour to the center, if they flew straight there.
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#3410 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:10 pm

It's almost a bit too close for my tastes, but yeah, MHX is pulling the north side of the eye around 9000 feet and the backside around 17000, so that is bound to be better for low level features.

EDIT: yes, thanks, 2000ft and 5000ft are much more reasonable numbers, and the center is far more apparent.
Last edited by WindRunner on Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3411 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:10 pm

The plane is closing in on Ernesto so soon the first pass from this new mission will come.
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#3412 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:19 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010119
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 10 KNHC
0106 3246N 08343W 05792 0298 228 011 075 199 012 06105 0000000000
0106. 3247N 08340W 05792 0297 239 012 075 251 012 06104 0000000000
0107 3248N 08338W 05790 0298 235 012 079 127 012 06102 0000000000
0107. 3248N 08335W 05793 0296 243 013 081 143 014 06104 0000000000
0108 3249N 08332W 05790 0294 249 015 077 157 015 06099 0000000000
0108. 3249N 08330W 05791 0295 248 015 077 167 016 06101 0000000000
0109 3250N 08327W 05792 0295 243 016 077 137 016 06103 0000000000
0109. 3251N 08325W 05789 0295 247 017 075 165 017 06099 0000000000
0110 3251N 08322W 05792 0295 240 016 083 103 017 06101 0000000000
0110. 3252N 08319W 05794 0293 239 019 081 103 020 06101 0000000000
0111 3252N 08317W 05789 0293 242 018 081 125 019 06096 0000000000
0111. 3253N 08314W 05793 0292 231 020 075 153 021 06099 0000000000
0112 3254N 08311W 05788 0293 235 017 079 155 019 06096 0000000000
0112. 3254N 08309W 05794 0292 238 017 079 133 017 06101 0000000000
0113 3255N 08306W 05790 0292 238 018 075 129 019 06097 0000000000
0113. 3255N 08303W 05792 0291 243 021 075 121 022 06098 0000000000
0114 3256N 08301W 05791 0291 249 023 073 125 023 06097 0000000000
0114. 3257N 08258W 05791 0291 255 023 073 109 023 06096 0000000000
0115 3257N 08255W 05792 0290 260 025 077 105 027 06097 0000000000
0115. 3258N 08252W 05789 0289 246 028 077 097 029 06093 0000000000
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#3413 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:24 pm

Image

Gives you some idea of when the plane will get there.
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#3414 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:27 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010129
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 11 KNHC
0116 3258N 08250W 05792 0289 234 026 071 081 028 06096 0000000000
0116. 3259N 08247W 05792 0289 237 021 075 079 024 06095 0000000000
0117 3300N 08244W 05790 0291 286 021 075 081 023 06096 0000000000
0117. 3300N 08242W 05791 0291 296 021 073 087 021 06097 0000000000
0118 3301N 08239W 05791 0292 304 021 073 089 022 06097 0000000000
0118. 3301N 08236W 05792 0292 299 018 071 085 019 06098 0000000000
0119 3302N 08234W 05791 0292 277 017 071 079 018 06098 0000000000
0119. 3302N 08231W 05792 0292 254 015 071 081 018 06098 0000000000
0120 3303N 08228W 05789 0291 255 010 071 085 011 06095 0000000000
0120. 3304N 08226W 05794 0291 251 011 075 083 012 06100 0000000000
0121 3304N 08223W 05789 0293 246 008 071 095 010 06096 0000000000
0121. 3305N 08221W 05794 0291 272 007 071 101 008 06099 0000000000
0122 3305N 08218W 05792 0291 278 010 069 103 012 06098 0000000000
0122. 3306N 08216W 05792 0293 272 013 071 093 014 06099 0000000000
0123 3306N 08213W 05791 0293 267 015 069 099 015 06098 0000000000
0123. 3307N 08210W 05790 0291 257 014 065 121 014 06096 0000000000
0124 3308N 08208W 05792 0290 258 013 067 119 013 06096 0000000000
0124. 3308N 08205W 05793 0291 261 012 067 113 013 06098 0000000000
0125 3309N 08202W 05790 0290 263 013 063 109 014 06095 0000000000
0125. 3309N 08200W 05790 0290 265 012 063 103 013 06095 0000000000
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#3415 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:36 pm

They will probably reach the center around 10:15pm
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#3416 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:37 pm

565
SXXX50 KNHC 010139
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 12 KNHC
0126 3310N 08157W 05792 0289 264 012 067 107 012 06096 0000000000
0126. 3310N 08154W 05791 0289 262 012 067 097 013 06094 0000000000
0127 3311N 08152W 05790 0288 262 012 067 089 013 06093 0000000000
0127. 3312N 08149W 05792 0289 271 011 067 095 012 06096 0000000000
0128 3312N 08147W 05789 0290 270 008 069 099 009 06093 0000000000
0128. 3313N 08144W 05794 0290 247 010 069 097 010 06098 0000000000
0129 3313N 08141W 05791 0290 241 012 065 101 013 06095 0000000000
0129. 3314N 08139W 05792 0291 245 012 063 107 013 06097 0000000000
0130 3314N 08136W 05789 0291 258 011 061 109 012 06095 0000000000
0130. 3315N 08133W 05792 0292 268 010 059 129 011 06099 0000000000
0131 3315N 08131W 05744 0294 269 013 057 129 013 06053 0000000000
0131. 3316N 08128W 05494 0282 271 013 043 119 013 05790 0000000000
0132 3317N 08126W 05248 0266 289 010 037 087 011 05528 0000000000
0132. 3317N 08123W 04885 0247 295 010 019 033 011 05144 0000000000
0133 3318N 08120W 04470 0223 300 013 008 021 016 04705 0000000000
0133. 3318N 08117W 04034 0203 325 011 026 018 013 04243 0000000000
0134 3319N 08115W 03591 0177 312 009 046 040 010 03772 0000000000
0134. 3319N 08112W 03174 0150 321 011 068 066 012 03329 0000000000
0135 3320N 08109W 02790 0128 312 011 086 086 011 02922 0000000000
0135. 3321N 08106W 02419 0107 318 010 104 104 011 02529 0000000000

Plane decends.
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#3417 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:39 pm

Plane decends to flight level.
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#3418 Postby NCWeatherChic » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:46 pm

:yow:

Waiting for the info. Should be interesting...
Wonder if it will be any stronger than previous. Thanks Cycloneye for posting the info.
Angela
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#3419 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:50 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010149
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 13 KNHC
0136 3321N 08103W 02061 0087 330 010 124 124 011 02151 0000000000
0136. 3322N 08101W 01744 0058 358 014 142 134 016 01804 0000000000
0137 3322N 08058W 01576 0045 004 017 154 148 018 01623 0000000000
0137. 3323N 08056W 01548 0040 360 018 158 158 018 01591 0000000100
0138 3323N 08054W 01541 0040 360 019 160 160 020 01582 0000000100
0138. 3323N 08052W 01554 0038 004 020 160 160 020 01594 0000000100
0139 3324N 08050W 01554 0037 006 020 158 158 020 01592 0000000100
0139. 3324N 08049W 01536 0036 005 019 158 152 020 01574 0000000000
0140 3325N 08047W 01520 0034 009 019 160 150 019 01556 0000000000
0140. 3325N 08045W 01526 0034 009 019 160 148 020 01562 0000000000
0141 3325N 08043W 01524 0032 007 020 164 144 020 01558 0000000000
0141. 3326N 08041W 01524 0030 008 020 166 144 020 01556 0000000000
0142 3326N 08039W 01524 0030 012 021 166 144 021 01555 0000000000
0142. 3326N 08037W 01525 0029 016 022 162 148 022 01556 0000000000
0143 3327N 08036W 01524 0028 022 023 152 152 023 01554 0000000000
0143. 3327N 08034W 01524 0027 018 022 150 150 022 01554 0000000000
0144 3327N 08032W 01524 0026 019 022 150 150 022 01552 0000000000
0144. 3328N 08030W 01524 0025 020 021 150 150 022 01552 0000000000
0145 3328N 08028W 01524 0024 019 021 150 150 022 01551 0000000000
0145. 3329N 08027W 01524 0024 018 020 152 152 022 01550 0000000000
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#3420 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:51 pm

An eye is clearing on radar . . . so it should be stronger IMO.
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