Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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#3441 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:20 pm

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#3442 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:28 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010229
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
0216 3344N 07836W 01524 5088 024 030 182 182 031 01437 0000000000
0216. 3343N 07834W 01527 5093 020 030 186 186 031 01436 0000000000
0217 3343N 07832W 01520 5098 019 030 176 176 031 01424 0000000000
0217. 3343N 07830W 01526 5103 014 029 174 174 031 01426 0000000000
0218 3342N 07828W 01524 5108 009 024 182 182 027 01418 0000000000
0218. 3342N 07826W 01526 5113 354 023 186 186 025 01415 0000000000
0219 3342N 07824W 01520 5119 355 019 184 184 019 01403 0000000000
0219. 3342N 07822W 01525 5123 344 017 184 182 018 01404 0000000000
0220 3342N 07820W 01523 5123 340 018 186 178 018 01401 0000000000
0220. 3343N 07818W 01524 5126 345 014 186 178 018 01401 0000000000
0221 3343N 07817W 01524 5129 348 009 190 180 011 01396 0000000000
0221. 3344N 07815W 01524 5132 359 005 188 188 006 01393 0000000000
0222 3344N 07813W 01525 5135 132 004 184 184 006 01392 0000000000
0222. 3345N 07811W 01523 5135 136 011 190 190 013 01391 0000000000
0223 3346N 07810W 01526 5134 146 016 180 180 019 01394 0000000000
0223. 3348N 07809W 01521 5131 148 021 186 186 022 01392 0000000000
0224 3349N 07807W 01524 5129 143 022 188 184 023 01397 0000000000
0224. 3350N 07806W 01525 5127 144 024 190 182 025 01399 0000000000
0225 3351N 07804W 01524 5126 147 026 186 186 027 01400 0000000000
0225. 3352N 07803W 01523 5125 147 031 180 180 031 01400 0000000000



VDM comming.
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#3443 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:29 pm

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#3444 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:29 pm

Pressure is still falling! should be near 985 or so now


0222. 3345N 07811W 01523 5135 136 011 190 190 013 01391 0000000000
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#3445 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:30 pm

VDM in minutes.
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#3446 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:32 pm

i think with the VDM it will be declared a hurricane.
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#3447 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:32 pm

I agree with drezee's statement in the obs thread . . . pressure should be a few mbs lower this pass, which will probably be the last unless they make a u-turn for one more shot.
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#3448 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:35 pm

the 850mb height is also temp dependent

Since it is nighttime, the mean layer temp is lower; thus, the 850mb height is lower than during the day
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#3449 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:35 pm

<<<Waits patiently to see if we'll have a Cat 1 :wink:

Stay safe North Carolina.. :wink:
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#3450 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:37 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010239
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
0226 3354N 07802W 01524 5122 143 035 186 186 039 01404 0000000000
0226. 3355N 07800W 01524 5117 136 039 182 182 040 01409 0000000000
0227 3356N 07759W 01524 5113 141 043 174 174 044 01413 0000000000
0227. 3357N 07757W 01526 5109 142 047 168 168 050 01420 0000000000
0228 3358N 07756W 01523 5104 147 049 168 168 051 01420 0000000000
0228. 3400N 07754W 01524 5098 143 053 168 168 054 01427 0000000000
0229 3401N 07753W 01525 5094 143 055 164 164 057 01433 0000000000
0229. 3402N 07752W 01522 5087 139 059 176 176 060 01437 0000000000
0230 3403N 07750W 01525 5083 139 059 174 174 060 01443 0000000000
0230. 3404N 07749W 01524 5078 142 059 172 172 059 01448 0000000000
0231 3405N 07747W 01525 5074 145 058 170 170 058 01453 0000000000
0231. 3406N 07746W 01524 5070 145 057 172 172 058 01455 0000000000
0232 3408N 07745W 01523 5067 143 058 158 158 060 01458 0000000000
0232. 3409N 07743W 01525 5062 142 058 164 164 058 01465 0000000000
0233 3410N 07742W 01524 5059 141 060 168 168 061 01467 0000000000
0233. 3411N 07740W 01524 5054 143 057 170 170 057 01472 0000000000
0234 3412N 07739W 01524 5051 145 056 166 166 056 01476 0000000000
0234. 3413N 07738W 01524 5048 145 055 170 170 056 01478 0000000000
0235 3415N 07736W 01524 5045 143 053 166 166 054 01481 0000000000
0235. 3416N 07735W 01523 5042 141 053 166 166 053 01483 0000000000

61kts.
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#3451 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:38 pm

501
URNT12 KNHC 010234
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/02:21:20Z
B. 33 deg 44 min N
078 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1320 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 018 deg 049 kt
G. 269 deg 024 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 15 C/ 1521 m
J. 19 C/ 1522 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 02:13:40 Z
;
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#3452 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
CAPE FEAR...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST JUST WEST OF CAPE FEAR. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 25 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
STATION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SIX-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#3453 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:38 pm

532
UZNT13 KNHC 010234
XXAA 51028 99337 70782 11638 99988 26407 ///// 00610 ///// /////
92579 23407 ///// 85317 20200 16003 88999 77999
31313 09608 80221
61616 AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 3373N07821W 0223 LST WND 975 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 51028 99337 70782 11638 00988 26407 11865 20617 22850 20200
33843 18000
21212 00988 ///// 11884 21004 22843 14504
31313 09608 80221
61616 AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 3373N07821W 0223 LST WND 975 AEV 20604 =
;
Decode please?

VDM
:darrow: :darrow:
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#3454 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



...Center of Ernesto near landfall on the North Carolina coast near
Cape Fear...
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
from the South Santee River South Carolina southward.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of the South
Santee River to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and
Albemarle sounds. Gale warnings are in effect for the Atlantic
coast and the Chesapeake Bay north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area due to a strong pressure gradient north of Ernesto.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.9 north...longitude 78.2 west...or near the
North Carolina coast just west of Cape Fear. This position is also
about 25 miles... 45 km...southwest of Wilmington North Carolina
and about 105 miles...165 km...west-southwest of Cape Lookout North
Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph...30 km/hr.
A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are
expected during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the
center inland over eastern North Carolina for the remainder of
tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast as the storm moves inland over North
Carolina.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles...230 km
mainly to the east of the center. The National ocean service
station at Wrightsville Beach North Carolina recently reported a
six-minute average wind of 55 mph with a gust to 67 mph.

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coast of North Carolina in areas of onshore
flow within the warning area. Tides are currently running about 3
feet above normal at Wrightsville Beach.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible from northeastern
South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians through Saturday...with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. These amounts could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia through Friday morning.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...33.9 N...78.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#3455 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:39 pm

URNT12 KNHC 010234
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/02:21:20Z
B. 33 deg 44 min N
078 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1320 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 018 deg 049 kt
G. 269 deg 024 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 15 C/ 1521 m
J. 19 C/ 1522 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 02:13:40 Z
;
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#3456 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 125SE 60SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.7N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.6N 77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.4N 77.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 41.7N 78.4W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 78.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#3457 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:39 pm

UZNT13 KNHC 010234
XXAA 51028 99337 70782 11638 99988 26407 ///// 00610 ///// /////
92579 23407 ///// 85317 20200 16003 88999 77999
31313 09608 80221
61616 AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 3373N07821W 0223 LST WND 975 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 51028 99337 70782 11638 00988 26407 11865 20617 22850 20200
33843 18000
21212 00988 ///// 11884 21004 22843 14504
31313 09608 80221
61616 AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 3373N07821W 0223 LST WND 975 AEV 20604 =

988mb eye drop with 7kt wind . . . so 988 it will be for landfall, as the northern eyewall is already inland (though per the VDM there isn't an eyewall, but you know what I mean).
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#3458 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:41 pm

And a 61kt FL wind means we still have no winds to support an upgrade prior to landfall . . . no hurricane for NC this time.
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#3459 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:41 pm

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#3460 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:43 pm

Ernesto has a better argument for a hurricane now than it did near Haiti, IMO. We could see an upgrade here, a downgrade there, both, or neither.
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