Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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dwsqos2

#3461 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:48 pm

908
SXXX50 KNHC 010249
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC
0236 3417N 07733W 01524 5038 142 052 166 166 053 01487 0000000000
0236. 3418N 07732W 01526 5036 143 052 166 166 052 01492 0000000000
0237 3419N 07730W 01526 5034 144 052 166 166 053 01494 0000000000
0237. 3420N 07729W 01523 5034 147 053 172 168 053 01491 0000000000
0238 3420N 07727W 01526 5032 149 055 172 166 056 01496 0000000000
0238. 3421N 07725W 01521 5030 147 055 176 166 056 01494 0000000000
0239 3422N 07724W 01534 5028 151 057 164 164 060 01508 0000000000
0239. 3423N 07722W 01512 5028 151 058 168 168 059 01487 0000000000
0240 3424N 07720W 01525 5026 155 059 154 154 059 01501 0000000000
0240. 3425N 07719W 01524 5024 150 060 150 150 061 01502 0000000000
0241 3426N 07717W 01524 5019 144 059 152 152 060 01507 0000000000
0241. 3428N 07716W 01524 5017 139 050 156 156 051 01508 0000000000
0242 3428N 07715W 01530 5016 141 045 164 164 049 01515 0000000000
0242. 3428N 07713W 01544 5012 150 051 156 156 058 01533 0000000000
0243 3428N 07711W 01492 5014 152 057 164 164 061 01480 0000000000
0243. 3429N 07710W 01512 5021 152 061 174 174 063 01493 0000000000
0244 3431N 07709W 01529 5016 150 059 168 168 060 01515 0000000000
0244. 3433N 07709W 01524 5018 148 060 172 168 060 01508 0000000000
0245 3434N 07708W 01523 5014 144 058 170 170 059 01511 0000000000
0245. 3436N 07707W 01525 5012 145 058 172 172 059 01515 0000000000


63 knots
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#3462 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:49 pm

61 kts sustained, gusts to 63 kts at FL.

The plane's getting awfully far NE...are they done with the center approaching land?
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Josephine96

#3463 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:50 pm

I believe if it did ever become a hurricane, even for a short time.. we won't know till post storm analysis..
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#3464 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:50 pm

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#3465 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:59 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010300
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
0246 3437N 07705W 01524 5009 148 058 166 166 059 01516 0000000000
0246. 3438N 07704W 01524 5006 145 056 162 162 058 01519 0000000000
0247 3439N 07702W 01525 5004 143 053 158 158 055 01523 0000000000
0247. 3441N 07701W 01522 5002 143 047 156 156 050 01522 0000000000
0248 3442N 07700W 01526 0000 143 049 158 158 050 01528 0000000000
0248. 3443N 07658W 01523 0002 138 050 164 164 050 01527 0000000000
0249 3444N 07657W 01525 0005 138 051 164 164 051 01531 0000000000
0249. 3446N 07656W 01523 0004 138 050 166 166 051 01529 0000000000
0250 3447N 07654W 01525 0006 141 050 166 166 051 01532 0000000000
0250. 3448N 07653W 01524 0007 141 050 170 162 050 01533 0000000000
0251 3449N 07651W 01524 0009 144 050 170 162 050 01535 0000000000
0251. 3451N 07650W 01522 0010 145 050 166 166 050 01533 0000000000
0252 3452N 07648W 01528 0011 148 051 162 162 053 01541 0000000000
0252. 3453N 07647W 01522 0013 148 051 164 164 052 01536 0000000000
0253 3454N 07646W 01523 0014 148 048 162 162 049 01539 0000000000
0253. 3456N 07644W 01524 0016 146 048 162 162 049 01542 0000000000
0254 3457N 07643W 01524 0017 143 048 160 160 048 01543 0000000000
0254. 3458N 07641W 01525 0019 144 049 160 158 049 01546 0000000000
0255 3459N 07640W 01522 0021 145 053 160 154 055 01545 0000000000
0255. 3500N 07639W 01523 0024 143 053 160 152 055 01549 0000000000
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#3466 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:00 pm

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#3467 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:02 pm

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA
FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO
HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR
SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS
AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS
70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY
THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16. ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE
INITIAL POSITION.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 33.9N 78.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 35.7N 77.3W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0000Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 39.4N 77.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/0000Z 41.7N 78.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#3468 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:03 pm

Hmmm, well forget everything we said about the plane not flying over land. They are currently in the NE quad and about 20nm inland, though about to emerge over the sound.
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#3469 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:07 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010309
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 21 KNHC
0256 3501N 07637W 01524 0024 142 050 164 152 051 01550 0000000000
0256. 3502N 07635W 01525 0026 143 050 166 152 051 01552 0000000000
0257 3503N 07633W 01524 0027 143 050 166 154 051 01553 0000000000
0257. 3503N 07632W 01523 0028 143 048 162 162 048 01553 0000000000
0258 3504N 07630W 01523 0029 146 048 164 152 049 01554 0000000000
0258. 3504N 07628W 01525 0030 145 048 162 156 049 01557 0000000000
0259 3505N 07627W 01525 0030 146 045 162 158 046 01557 0000000000
0259. 3505N 07625W 01522 0029 144 045 164 154 046 01553 0000000000
0300 3506N 07623W 01524 0031 144 044 166 152 045 01556 0000000000
0300. 3507N 07621W 01525 0032 142 044 164 156 044 01559 0000000000
0301 3507N 07620W 01523 0033 144 043 164 150 044 01559 0000000000
0301. 3508N 07618W 01526 0036 144 043 162 156 045 01564 0000000000
0302 3508N 07616W 01525 0035 146 041 164 152 042 01562 0000000000
0302. 3506N 07616W 01522 0033 141 039 166 150 040 01557 0000000000
0303 3506N 07618W 01526 0032 134 040 166 150 040 01560 0000000000
0303. 3507N 07620W 01522 0033 135 042 168 150 042 01557 0000000000
0304 3508N 07622W 01526 0032 136 043 170 150 043 01560 0000000000
0304. 3509N 07625W 01524 0032 135 045 166 152 045 01558 0000000000
0305 3509N 07627W 01524 0032 135 044 166 152 045 01558 0000000000
0305. 3510N 07629W 01523 0031 136 045 166 154 045 01555 0000000000
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#3470 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:08 pm

Turning around, coming back down toward the center now...
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#3471 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:09 pm

So he may have briefly been a hurricane a little while ago.. but not now.. Oh well..

5/1/0.. and 3 TS landfalls.. Alberto, Beryl, and Ernesto.. Maybe we'll see a landfalling hurricane in the next 3 months.. {Not necessarily pulling for 1.. but ya know..}
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#3472 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:10 pm

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#3473 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:13 pm

Turning back towards the south now.
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#3474 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:18 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010319
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 22 KNHC
0306 3511N 07631W 01525 0031 135 044 162 160 045 01557 0000000000
0306. 3512N 07634W 01524 0031 135 044 160 160 045 01556 0000000000
0307 3513N 07636W 01528 0029 136 043 160 160 045 01558 0000000000
0307. 3512N 07637W 01520 0029 136 042 162 158 042 01551 0000000000
0308 3511N 07639W 01526 0027 129 041 158 158 043 01555 0000000000
0308. 3509N 07640W 01522 0024 128 044 156 156 045 01548 0000000000
0309 3508N 07642W 01524 0023 131 046 160 160 046 01549 0000000000
0309. 3507N 07643W 01524 0022 130 047 160 158 047 01547 0000000000
0310 3506N 07645W 01525 0020 130 048 156 156 048 01547 0000000000
0310. 3505N 07646W 01523 0017 129 048 160 156 049 01542 0000000000
0311 3504N 07648W 01525 0014 127 047 160 158 048 01542 0000000000
0311. 3503N 07649W 01523 0012 128 045 158 158 046 01537 0000000000
0312 3501N 07651W 01524 0013 134 046 160 160 047 01539 0000000000
0312. 3500N 07652W 01525 0011 130 047 162 162 047 01537 0000000000
0313 3459N 07654W 01523 0009 127 052 164 164 053 01534 0000000000
0313. 3458N 07655W 01528 0008 124 052 154 154 053 01538 0000000000
0314 3457N 07657W 01521 0006 124 053 144 144 055 01529 0000000000
0314. 3456N 07658W 01523 0004 127 050 156 156 051 01529 0000000000
0315 3455N 07700W 01527 0005 126 050 158 158 053 01534 0000000000
0315. 3453N 07701W 01521 0003 131 050 156 156 050 01526 0000000000
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#3475 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm

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#3476 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:27 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010329
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 23 KNHC
0316 3452N 07701W 01525 0003 134 048 160 160 048 01530 0000000000
0316. 3451N 07700W 01522 0003 135 048 160 160 048 01526 0000000000
0317 3450N 07659W 01526 0003 138 048 158 158 050 01531 0000000000
0317. 3449N 07658W 01523 0003 138 051 156 156 052 01528 0000000000
0318 3449N 07657W 01526 0003 138 052 148 148 053 01531 0000000000
0318. 3448N 07656W 01520 0003 137 048 150 150 048 01524 0000000000
0319 3447N 07656W 01526 0002 136 047 136 136 049 01530 0000000000
0319. 3445N 07656W 01522 0002 135 049 140 140 049 01526 0000000000
0320 3445N 07658W 01527 0002 130 049 142 142 050 01531 0000000000
0320. 3444N 07701W 01521 5002 136 044 152 152 045 01520 0000000000
0321 3444N 07703W 01528 5006 131 048 146 146 049 01523 0000000000
0321. 3444N 07705W 01525 5008 133 054 156 156 056 01519 0000000000
0322 3444N 07708W 01526 5010 132 054 160 160 056 01518 0000000000
0322. 3444N 07710W 01522 5011 143 056 164 164 059 01513 0000000000
0323 3443N 07711W 01524 5011 140 056 170 170 057 01515 0000000000
0323. 3442N 07713W 01523 5014 135 058 166 166 059 01511 0000000000
0324 3440N 07714W 01525 5018 137 059 172 172 060 01509 0000000000
0324. 3439N 07714W 01524 5018 136 057 170 170 058 01507 0000000000
0325 3438N 07714W 01524 5020 136 056 164 164 058 01506 0000000000
0325. 3436N 07714W 01524 5022 140 055 164 164 055 01504 0000000000
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#3477 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:30 pm

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#3478 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:36 pm

Will we get another VDM before official landfall?
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#3479 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:36 pm

Can someone take over graphics? I'm going to be heading off to bed.
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#3480 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:37 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010339
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 24 KNHC
0326 3435N 07714W 01524 5022 144 054 168 168 055 01503 0000000000
0326. 3434N 07714W 01522 5024 146 054 170 170 055 01500 0000000000
0327 3433N 07714W 01525 5026 147 053 172 172 054 01500 0000000000
0327. 3431N 07715W 01526 5034 145 052 170 170 053 01493 0000000000
0328 3431N 07717W 01524 5042 142 051 166 166 053 01484 0000000000
0328. 3431N 07720W 01527 5033 140 053 152 152 055 01495 0000000000
0329 3430N 07722W 01519 5035 147 056 170 170 057 01486 0000000000
0329. 3429N 07723W 01529 5036 146 056 170 170 057 01495 0000000000
0330 3428N 07725W 01520 5040 144 055 154 154 055 01483 0000000000
0330. 3427N 07726W 01526 5042 147 055 170 170 055 01485 0000000000
0331 3426N 07728W 01524 5045 145 054 174 168 055 01481 0000000000
0331. 3425N 07729W 01524 5048 143 055 178 168 056 01478 0000000000
0332 3424N 07731W 01524 5051 144 054 172 166 054 01474 0000000000
0332. 3424N 07732W 01523 5055 142 057 160 160 058 01470 0000000000
0333 3423N 07734W 01526 5060 139 057 160 160 058 01468 0000000000
0333. 3422N 07736W 01523 5063 136 060 148 148 062 01462 0000000000
0334 3421N 07737W 01522 5068 147 062 144 144 064 01456 0000000000
0334. 3420N 07739W 01524 5074 150 064 148 148 065 01451 0000000000
0335 3419N 07740W 01528 5078 148 064 146 146 065 01451 0000000000
0335. 3418N 07742W 01523 5083 150 065 146 146 066 01441 0000000000

66 kts.
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