Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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seahawkjd
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#3481 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:39 pm

the wind speed posted at the bottom of the recon by cycloneeye. is that flight level or sea level?
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#3482 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:39 pm

JtSmarts wrote:Will we get another VDM before official landfall?


Very soon it will come.
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#3483 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:39 pm

Image
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#3484 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:40 pm

seahawkjd wrote:the wind speed posted at the bottom of the recon by cycloneeye. is that flight level or sea level?


Flight Level.
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#3485 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:40 pm

dang it...recon flew over my house...twice!!! I wish it was not raining and was clear so I could take pics of them...it was pouring, so I didnt even hear them fly over...:(
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#3486 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:41 pm

228
WTNT65 KNHC 010335
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1140 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH
CAROLINA...

DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
WILMINGTON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA AT 1130 PM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 70 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#3487 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:43 pm

So no hurricane at landfall.But for sure they will do a researh of the system at postanalysis.
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#3488 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:48 pm

VDM very soon.
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#3489 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:48 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010349
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 25 KNHC
0336 3417N 07743W 01526 5087 151 063 152 152 064 01441 0000000000
0336. 3416N 07745W 01522 5092 149 059 154 154 059 01432 0000000000
0337 3415N 07746W 01525 5095 148 058 150 150 059 01432 0000000000
0337. 3414N 07748W 01523 5099 147 056 158 158 059 01426 0000000000
0338 3413N 07749W 01526 5104 143 046 158 158 052 01423 0000000000
0338. 3412N 07751W 01522 5109 137 041 178 178 041 01415 0000000000
0339 3411N 07753W 01524 5113 133 040 180 180 041 01413 0000000000
0339. 3410N 07754W 01524 5118 134 037 172 172 037 01407 0000000000
0340 3409N 07756W 01522 5122 140 033 170 170 035 01401 0000000000
0340. 3408N 07757W 01526 5126 135 028 182 182 030 01402 0000000000
0341 3407N 07759W 01524 5130 129 026 182 182 028 01396 0000000000
0341. 3406N 07801W 01524 5132 119 020 182 182 021 01394 0000000000
0342 3405N 07802W 01524 5133 118 018 184 184 019 01393 0000000000
0342. 3404N 07804W 01524 5136 118 014 186 178 016 01390 0000000000
0343 3403N 07805W 01524 5137 110 010 190 178 012 01389 0000000000
0343. 3401N 07806W 01525 5137 084 005 186 180 006 01389 0000000000
0344 3359N 07807W 01524 5139 007 005 184 178 006 01386 0000000000
0344. 3358N 07807W 01523 5139 326 009 186 178 011 01385 0000000000
0345 3356N 07808W 01525 5137 313 014 186 178 016 01390 0000000000
0345. 3355N 07808W 01525 5135 303 018 186 178 020 01392 0000000000



The last VDM comming.
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#3490 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:So no hurricane at landfall.But for sure they will do a researh of the system at postanalysis.


Correct. I personally think he was a hurricane at landfall.
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#3491 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:56 pm

if it was a hurricane south of haiti with a pressure of 997 and a small red blob over the center it looks ten times better today with a pressure of 988 at landfall but no hurricane then thats certainly something i DONT understand!!!
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#3492 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:59 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 010359
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
0346 3353N 07807W 01524 5136 289 022 188 176 023 01390 0000000000
0346. 3352N 07805W 01523 5137 278 023 188 178 025 01388 0000000000
0347 3351N 07803W 01523 5137 265 026 190 182 027 01387 0000000000
0347. 3349N 07802W 01524 5135 262 027 190 182 027 01390 0000000000
0348 3348N 07802W 01526 5129 264 027 192 176 028 01398 0000000000
0348. 3346N 07803W 01522 5123 266 027 188 182 027 01400 0000000000
0349 3345N 07804W 01526 5121 271 025 184 184 025 01407 0000000000
0349. 3345N 07806W 01529 5122 274 024 186 184 025 01410 0000000000
0350 3345N 07807W 01635 5116 272 027 184 182 028 01521 0000000000
0350. 3344N 07809W 01821 5104 277 029 176 158 029 01719 0000000000
0351 3343N 07810W 02084 5084 273 032 164 146 034 02003 0000000000
0351. 3342N 07812W 02333 5061 272 038 154 138 041 02275 0000000000
0352 3341N 07813W 02585 5039 273 043 138 136 044 02549 0000000000
0352. 3341N 07815W 02814 5019 277 040 118 118 041 02799 0000000000
0353 3340N 07816W 02971 5001 278 043 124 104 044 02974 0000000000
0353. 3339N 07818W 03139 0008 271 042 104 092 043 03152 0000000000
0354 3339N 07819W 03370 0026 278 047 086 084 050 03400 0000000000
0354. 3338N 07821W 03584 0042 281 043 064 064 044 03631 0000000000
0355 3338N 07822W 03778 0062 288 048 068 064 049 03844 0000000000
0355. 3338N 07824W 03959 0082 294 048 056 054 050 04047 0000000000

Plane going up meaning the mission will be over.
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#3493 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:59 pm

Well there were Winds and other data found that pointed to hurricane intensity. This however I have seen no data to indicate hurricane strength but, what is 4 Miles per hour between friends. I'm sure people in North and South Carolina can't tell the difference right now.

If they find data to indicate he was a cane, certainly he will be upgraded to a cane post season.
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i agree

#3494 Postby emeraldislencguy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:00 pm

it is difficult to understand why it was not designated as a hurricane--reallt thinks it has a lot to do with all the criticism they received about the weakness of the storm in Florida and the fact they dropped the huricane watch--only to see it get stronger during the day--it looked so much better today than it did south of haiti
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#3495 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:01 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:If they find data to indicate he was a cane, certainly he will be upgraded to a cane post season.



Don't forget, he was briefly a hurricane in the Caribbean, so he will be called one anyway.
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Re: i agree

#3496 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:03 pm

emeraldislencguy wrote:it is difficult to understand why it was not designated as a hurricane--reallt thinks it has a lot to do with all the criticism they received about the weakness of the storm in Florida and the fact they dropped the huricane watch--only to see it get stronger during the day--it looked so much better today than it did south of haiti


What's so difficult to understand, they've been flying recon all day and have found no wind data to support hurricane strength. The highest they found was 73 kts which corresponds to the 60 kts they have it set at.
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Re: i agree

#3497 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:03 pm

emeraldislencguy wrote:it is difficult to understand why it was not designated as a hurricane--reallt thinks it has a lot to do with all the criticism they received about the weakness of the storm in Florida and the fact they dropped the huricane watch--only to see it get stronger during the day--it looked so much better today than it did south of haiti


In reality where is the data to support it?
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#3498 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:03 pm

anyone watching TWC right now just saw their guy on wrightsville beach getting blown around by ONE HECK OF TS....Bet its sustained 50+ wth some good gusts....
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#3499 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:04 pm

I'm watching, it's looking real rough over there.
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#3500 Postby EverythingIsEverything » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:06 pm

Yes i am watching TWC, and he is really getting knocked around down there....i was thinking something was going to fly by and hit him at one point. and Jim Cantore just cut him off for a commercial break lol gotta love TWC
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