Tropical Depression John in EPAC
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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NetZeroZeus wrote:Any chance that I will be affected in Puerto Vallarta if this hurricane follows the projected track in the next few days?
Maybe a few outer bands, mainly on Thursday as it passes offshore to your SW.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00611.html
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#neversummer
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cycloneye
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wxmann_91 wrote:What did I miss? I have not been tracking John.
You missed a system that still is bombing.From a TD yesterday afternoon to a cat 3 now.
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cycloneye
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WTPZ31 KNHC 292332
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...14.9 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...14.9 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
969
WTPZ21 KNHC 300245
TCMEP1
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND ALSO
FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.0W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
731
WTPZ31 KNHC 300245
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND FROM
LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES
...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.2 N...100.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
799
WTPZ41 KNHC 300246
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
JOHN'S EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR NOW.
THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WITH ONLY A RELATIVE WARM SPOT VISIBLE IN RECENT INFRARED
IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE RESTRICTIONS OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AND RAW DATA T-NUMBERS THAT REMAIN NEAR 115 KT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO PREVENT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS JOHN TO MOVE INLAND OVER
MEXICO RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS...HOWEVER SINCE
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER WATER JOHN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 300/10 DURING
THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JOHN
CONTINUING ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE...
RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL CONTINUES
TO LIE ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE...TAKING JOHN
INLAND OVER MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL MOTION...THE EASTWARD TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...
AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THIS REQUIRES
THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE EXISTS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...
RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDL
SHOW LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...ALLOWING A
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN CONSIDERATION OF THE GFDL AND
ECMWF BUT STILL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT
THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AT
THE LATER PERIODS...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED FARTHER WEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.2N 100.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
WTPZ21 KNHC 300245
TCMEP1
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND ALSO
FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.0W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
731
WTPZ31 KNHC 300245
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND FROM
LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES
...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.2 N...100.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
799
WTPZ41 KNHC 300246
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
JOHN'S EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR NOW.
THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WITH ONLY A RELATIVE WARM SPOT VISIBLE IN RECENT INFRARED
IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE RESTRICTIONS OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AND RAW DATA T-NUMBERS THAT REMAIN NEAR 115 KT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO PREVENT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS JOHN TO MOVE INLAND OVER
MEXICO RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS...HOWEVER SINCE
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER WATER JOHN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 300/10 DURING
THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JOHN
CONTINUING ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE...
RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL CONTINUES
TO LIE ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE...TAKING JOHN
INLAND OVER MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL MOTION...THE EASTWARD TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...
AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THIS REQUIRES
THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE EXISTS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...
RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDL
SHOW LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...ALLOWING A
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN CONSIDERATION OF THE GFDL AND
ECMWF BUT STILL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT
THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AT
THE LATER PERIODS...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED FARTHER WEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.2N 100.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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Coredesat
They're sending recon to investigate John!
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300557
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN STILL MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING ACAPULCO AND THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS AND FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE
CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE JOHN AND PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...15.3 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300557
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN STILL MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING ACAPULCO AND THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS AND FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE
CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE JOHN AND PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...15.3 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 11649
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Portland,OR
- Contact:
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300857
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
...JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN-ROUTE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK...WILL BRING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IN CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300853
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
RADAR FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND IT APPEARS
THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THIS MAY
EXPLAIN WHY THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO A WARM
SPOT HAS RE-APPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
EN-ROUTE TO JOHN AND IT SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A MUCH MORE ACCURATE
MEASURE OF THE HURRICANE'S CURRENT STRENGTH.
JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE
ESTIMATED MOTION IS 300/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP JOHN ON THIS
GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO ITS
WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND BOTH TRACK JOHN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND UKMET THE
TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED RIGHT OR CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE...ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WILL BRING THE CORE OF
THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO. BEYOND THREE DAYS
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AND HIGHER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS ASSUMED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF JOHN TO BEND THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4
AND 5.
WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE INTENSIFICATION HAS CEASED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS...PERSISTENCE HAS BECOME LESS OF A POSITIVE
FACTOR IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THEREFORE IT NOW KEEPS THE HURRICANE
JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. HOWEVER...IT IS ASSUMED THAT
JOHN HAS JUST COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND
STRENGTHENING SHOULD RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PREDICT A CATEGORY FOUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 101.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 102.4W 110 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 104.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 107.7W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W 105 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
WTPZ31 KNHC 300857
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
...JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN-ROUTE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK...WILL BRING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IN CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300853
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
RADAR FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND IT APPEARS
THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THIS MAY
EXPLAIN WHY THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO A WARM
SPOT HAS RE-APPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
EN-ROUTE TO JOHN AND IT SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A MUCH MORE ACCURATE
MEASURE OF THE HURRICANE'S CURRENT STRENGTH.
JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE
ESTIMATED MOTION IS 300/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP JOHN ON THIS
GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO ITS
WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND BOTH TRACK JOHN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND UKMET THE
TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED RIGHT OR CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE...ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WILL BRING THE CORE OF
THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO. BEYOND THREE DAYS
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AND HIGHER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS ASSUMED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF JOHN TO BEND THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4
AND 5.
WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE INTENSIFICATION HAS CEASED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS...PERSISTENCE HAS BECOME LESS OF A POSITIVE
FACTOR IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THEREFORE IT NOW KEEPS THE HURRICANE
JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. HOWEVER...IT IS ASSUMED THAT
JOHN HAS JUST COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND
STRENGTHENING SHOULD RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PREDICT A CATEGORY FOUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 101.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 102.4W 110 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 104.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 107.7W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W 105 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
794
WTPZ31 KNHC 301157
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS CATEGORY-THREE
INTENSITY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...70 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 955
MB...28.20 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
WTPZ31 KNHC 301157
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS CATEGORY-THREE
INTENSITY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...70 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 955
MB...28.20 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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CocoCreek
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 52
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:26 pm
- Location: Coconut Creek, FL
After tracking Ernesto for many days, it's easy to come back to reality when looking at Hurricane John in the EPAC. This is what a real storm looks like when it has real power and has its act together. Even at its peak, Ernesto looked like one of Hurricane John's single thunderstorm cells in comparison...LOL. I find it funny though what lack of interest there is in EPAC systems even when there is one out there worth watching. I guess the proximity to home and the danger associated with a real threat is what drives most interest, but you can still learn a lot by not just following Atlantic storms.
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MiamiensisWx
Why are they keeping the initial intensity at 100KT? Based on RECON data, I was expecting more along the lines of bumping the intensity upward to 105KT or so. I thought RECON had confirmed via readings that John is closer to 105KT/110KT, so why hasn't the latest advisory bumped the intensity up slightly?
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CapeVerdeWave wrote:Why are they keeping the initial intensity at 100KT? Based on RECON data, I was expecting more along the lines of bumping the intensity upward to 105KT or so. I thought RECON had confirmed via readings that John is closer to 105KT/110KT, so why hasn't the latest advisory bumped the intensity up slightly?
This advisory was sent out before the plane found 123kt FL wind in the NE Quad.
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