Tropical Depression John in EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

Mexican Radars.Click on the Acapulco one and see the bands and part of the eye.

[Cyclenall]

How come I can no longer see a pin-hole eye on SAT images?

I think the cyclone may not have been able to handle such a eye yet and it disappeared:

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-jsl.html

I'm not sure if it will come back or just fade away and a new eye will come later. Hopefully the pin-hole will come back.

[cycloneye]

18:00z Models increased intensity to 90kts.

[CrazyC83]

Cat 2 by tonight and by tomorrow 3 or maybe even 4.

I'm thinking 3 this evening, 4 overnight then an ERC.

[cycloneye]

704
WTPZ21 KNHC 292041
TCMEP1
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 99.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH



Wow ,yeaterday it was a TD and now is a major.

[cycloneye]

684
WTPZ31 KNHC 292044
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...HURRICANE JOHN IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...99.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[bombarderoazul]

That was fast, maybe John could become a cat 5 storm.

[CrazyC83]

That was fast, maybe John could become a cat 5 storm.

Is this the Wilma of the Pacific?

[Brent]

WOW.

[WmE]

WOW, that was fast. Ok, it could really reach Category 5 intensity, if it continues strengthening like this.

[cycloneye]

WOW.

In three hours it jumped from cat 1 to cat 3.That is called explosive bombing.

[cycloneye]

967
WTPZ41 KNHC 292057
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

JOHN HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND A PINHOLE EYE IS
NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 24 HOURS AGO THE CYCLONE WAS A
40 KT TROPICAL STORM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
SET AT 100 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE LIMITED TO DATA T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 OR 90 KT DUE
TO RESTRICTIONS IN THE TECHNIQUE...BUT RAW DATA T-NUMBERS GIVE
ESTIMATES CLOSER TO 6.0 OR 115 KT. THERE ARE NO APPARENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH MAKES JOHN A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A STRONG
HURRICANE THROUGH 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE IS
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
STILL FORECAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE FARTHER EAST
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND TAKE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK RESULTING FROM A STRONGER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU CLOSELY.

THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN AND A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS
HAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ONCE
AGAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.4N 99.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[CrazyC83]

The pressure of 960 seems suspiciously low for a pinhole eye - I would say it is closer to 940mb. They need to send a Hurricane Hunter into this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not be suprized if it was not for that recon that the nhc would of kepted Wilma a cat3, with pressures in the 940s or so.

[CrazyC83]

I would not be suprized if it was not for that recon that the nhc would of kepted Wilma a cat3, with pressures in the 940s or so.

I agree, which is why I am putting the initial pressure at 945 on my prediction. It is not as awe-shocking as you may expect - I do NOT bring it to Category 5, but it comes mighty close.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

I've been shocked myself by this bombing out of Hurricane John. I am initializing it at stronger than the NHC and keeping it there for 48 hours, then weakening it more rapidly. I am tempted to shoot for the stars on this one, but these numbers seem high enough. The track forecast is nearly identical to the NHC's. I do not bring it up to a Category 5, but the pressure might as well be such.

Current - 14.4/99.7 - 945mb - 120mph
12 hrs - 15.1/100.8 - 908mb - 155mph
24 hrs - 16.1/102.7 - 921mb - 145mph
36 hrs - 17.1/104.5 - 925mb - 145mph
48 hrs - 18.8/106.4 - 931mb - 140mph
60 hrs - 19.9/108.9 - 937mb - 125mph
72 hrs - 21.6/111.1 - 951mb - 110mph
96 hrs - 22.4/113.6 - 967mb - 90mph
120 hrs - 22.6/117.5 - 983mb - 70mph

[Cyclenall]

That is nearing extreme rapid strengthening. This is some of the most rapid strengthening this year in the Eastern Pacific. Just think, 30 knots in 6 hours!! Unreal.

I still can't see a pin-hole eye on visible images. It's now gone so I don't know what the NHC has been talking about. I see still see a trace of the eye on the JSL images though. I also see it has gotten much larger from last night.

[gilbert88]

Could this be another legendary Hurricane John? This one looks like it could go after Linda's record...

[NetZeroZeus]

Any chance that I will be affected in Puerto Vallarta if this hurricane follows the projected track in the next few days?

[Epsilon_Fan]

from the visible loop I could see a pinhole eye for a few frames but it has clouded over. You can see a hint of it in the visible image