Tropical Depression John in EPAC

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shawn67
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#141 Postby shawn67 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:52 pm

Eye visible again:

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cycloneye
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#142 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 12:57 pm

113
WTPZ31 KNHC 311755
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO
CORRIENTES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN
BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
...100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLAS MARIAS.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND APPROACH CABO
SAN LUCAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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#143 Postby rockst0ne » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:11 pm

Anyone know where to get buoy reports for the Pacific waters near John or wx obs from the Marías Islands off Mexico??

- thanks
taylor
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#144 Postby NetZeroZeus » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:19 pm

I don't believe there are any, Mexico doesn't really have a very advanced meteorological service.
Oh, and I'm getting heavy to very heavy rain and 8 mph sustained winds at the moment, although the rain is picking up as we speak, I don't think I'm gonna see a wind component of this hurricane.
We are still expecting a CAT 3 to 4 landfall around Cabo San Lucas, am I correct?
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#145 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:23 pm

NetZeroZeus wrote:We are still expecting a CAT 3 to 4 landfall around Cabo San Lucas, am I correct?


We'll see what the next advisory shows. The latest recon information showed a dropsonde very near the eye (20kts of wind) that reported a pressure of 973mb. If that is indeed correct, then John has weakened somewhat significantly -- it's proximity to land doesn't make this result too surprising.
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#146 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:47 pm

426
WTPZ41 KNHC 312041
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE THAT JOHN IS WEAKER THAN EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB WITH A
20 KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE ACTUAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE LOWER. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT...IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT FROM A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE EASTERN EYEWALL. ASIDE FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY JOHN HAS WEAKENED SO MUCH. PERHAPS
IT WAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE
MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH JOHN HAS
WEAKENED...IT STILL HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONCE JOHN STARTS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT SHOULD BEGIN TRAVERSING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEADILY WEAKEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH THE SMALLER HURRICANE...KRISTY...LOCATED SOME 600 MILES TO ITS
WEST. NOW THAT THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT...
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK THAT
WOULD TAKE JOHN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND THEN
TAKES JOHN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED FROM THE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 20.7N 107.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 110.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 24.1N 112.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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#147 Postby NetZeroZeus » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:55 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
NetZeroZeus wrote:We are still expecting a CAT 3 to 4 landfall around Cabo San Lucas, am I correct?


We'll see what the next advisory shows. The latest recon information showed a dropsonde very near the eye (20kts of wind) that reported a pressure of 973mb. If that is indeed correct, then John has weakened somewhat significantly -- it's proximity to land doesn't make this result too surprising.


Seems like you were right on. They made a whole big deal about this here, kinda like what they did for Ernesto in Florida, but this was even worse because we haven't seen a gust above 12mph the whole day, and judging by the position of the hurricane, we won't be seeing anything. There's all these stores boarded up and stuff, and theres nothing out there..oh well, I gues they won't take any chances after what happened with Kenna back in 2002, now THAT was a hurricane.
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#148 Postby Swimdude » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:00 pm

The forecast doesn't take John OVER Baja Cali, but close... But if you look at the IR Loop... It's gonna hit land, I hate to say it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html
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#149 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:55 pm

035
WTPZ41 KNHC 010253
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE EYE HAS
BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING. LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR ANIMATION
INDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90
KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 90 TO 102 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A CIMSS WIND SHEAR
ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT JOHN HAS OUT RUN THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE
AND NOW HAS MOVED WITHIN 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...JOHN
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/11. JOHN REMAINS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
CLUSTER INTO TWO GROUPS. THE GFDL...NAVY GFDN...AND GFS INDICATE A
NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF...GFS
ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST
THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...ALLOWING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS HEDGED CLOSELY TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE SECOND DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTER...WHICH INDICATES A
WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.

BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.4N 107.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.9W 95 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 110.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.2N 111.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 24.8N 113.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 26.0N 119.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

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#150 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:19 am

John is back up to major hurricane strength with 100 knots with a pressure of 960 mb. That was not forecast at all.

The pin-hole eye is back! This time....it's more cleared out then ever before. However, it's far from being totally cleared out (Wima?).
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#151 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:13 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 010910
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN WHICH HAD DEGRADED EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN. AN EYE IS NOW
DISCERNIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON THE
LOS CABOS RADAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN CONTRACTING ON THE
RADAR IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 KT FROM
AFWA... 102 KT FROM SAB...TO 115 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND IS SET
AT 100 KT. AN UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY OF JOHN LATER THIS MORNING.

JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OR WEST OF TRACK DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. A LONGER TERM 12-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/11 KT
AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY. DESPITE THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD
TRENDS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW JOHN MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AFTER 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD IS
ADJUSTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO JOHN REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
SSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.7N 108.8W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W 100 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

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#152 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:29 am

The hurricane winds only extend 30 miles from the center. If lucky, Baja California may not get the worse of the storm if John stays offshore.
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#153 Postby TampaFl » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:55 am

Nice radar view of John from Los Cabos Mx.


Image
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#154 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:43 am

WOW! The system has really wobbled over the past several hours to a NE direction. These wobbles this close to land make a HUGE difference as to where it could potentially make landfall. Let's hope it's not a continued trend as it seems to be rapidly strengthening as we speak.

Category 4 again is becoming increasingly likely...
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#155 Postby NetZeroZeus » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:43 am

:eek: This may keep intensifying....doesn't look good for Cabo.
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#156 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:57 am

Slight warming, but sharper eye.

This is unusual because hurricanes usually weaken after they leave the SST's of the south coast.

Looks like Cabo San Lucas could take a direct hit after this last wobble.

By the way, that radar image is showing an excellent example of a double eyewall effect.
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#157 Postby Swimdude » Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:36 pm

UMMM. Anyone notice that John HAS [not may be] wobbled perfectly due North...? This isn't good.
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#158 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:38 pm

I dont think we'll see a cat 4 out of this since recon couldnt even justify marginal 3
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#159 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I dont think we'll see a cat 4 out of this since recon couldnt even justify marginal 3

Of course. It's a category 2 hurricane right now.
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#160 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:36 pm

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE
WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PRONOUNCED BANDING
FEATURES. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON MISSION
EARLIER TODAY WERE 102 KT AT 700 MB... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 92 KT
AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER... AFTER THE RECON LEFT... JOHN FINISHED
ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS INDICATED BY CABO SAN LUCAS
RADAR. THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY RECOVERED A LITTLE FROM THE
TEMPORARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT... AND THE WINDS WILL BE NUDGED DOWN
ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING.

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 335/7. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE
NORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO. THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING
THAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. THE MINORITY
SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO
BE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
FLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE
GFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT.

THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND... CONSEQUENTLY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST.. WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL. THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT JOHN WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY... PROBABLY EMERGING IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER IT REEMERGES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND
WITH A DISSIPATION OVER COLD WATER BY 5 DAYS. AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATE IN JUST A
FEW DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.8N 109.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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