Tropical Depression John in EPAC

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cycloneye
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#101 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:24 pm

It looks like John is going thru a replacement eye cycle now.
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#102 Postby bombarderoazul » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:01 pm

Whoa!, this storm is dangerous!
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#103 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:29 pm

Its moving northwest right now in moving closer to shore. The northern or northeast eyewall might make landfall.
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#104 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL BUT CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF EL
ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES
...135 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. HOWEVER
ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE
IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.4 N...103.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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#105 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:42 pm

756
WTPZ41 KNHC 302038
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JOHN IS UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 1520 UTC
SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. BOTH THE OCCURRENCE AND TIME SCALE OF THESE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. IN
ANY EVENT...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE
HURRICANE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE ONCE
THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT HAS ENDED. THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN IN A
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE
ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE INTERACTION WITH
LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME.
JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...PARALLEL TO BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. ONLY A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER
ASHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 1800 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 17.4N 103.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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#106 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:45 pm

Image
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#107 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:52 pm

If this makes landfall, it will likely be a very devastating storm. There will be no John in 2012 should he turn right.
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#108 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:58 pm

john is the one who made it across the pacific right? if so it should have already be retired.
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#109 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If this makes landfall, it will likely be a very devastating storm. There will be no John in 2012 should he turn right.


There probably won't be another John anyway, not if it follows the track and hits Cabo San Lucas as a Cat 4 as expected.

Also, the 2am position tonight is only 40 miles SW of Manzanillo. Eyewall will likely be onshore.
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#110 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:08 pm

Impressive EPAC Hurricane, seems the Atlantic is getting all the bad shear this year.
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#111 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:09 pm

Image

Acapulco radar shows the impressive eye.
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#112 Postby Dave C » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:09 pm

here's a radar link to view John. Not the greatest but better than nothing I guess.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html
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#113 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:09 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Impressive EPAC Hurricane, seems the Atlantic is getting all the bad shear this year.


When one is active, the other is generally fairly quiet.
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#114 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:09 pm

I don't like having a storm this bad with my name.. :lol:Prayers for Mexico and extreme southern California..
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#115 Postby Dave C » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:10 pm

Wow Cycloneye, are we on the same wavelength or what! :D :D :D
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#116 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:13 pm

Dave C wrote:Wow Cycloneye, are we on the same wavelength or what! :D :D :D


Yes at the same time we posted the same. :) To clarify the radar is from Cuyutlan not from Acalpulco.You can refresh and get the latest image.
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#117 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:16 pm

fact789 wrote:john is the one who made it across the pacific right? if so it should have already be retired.



Why is that?
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#118 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:19 pm

not many cyclones get across the pacific
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#119 Postby bombarderoazul » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:25 pm

John of 1994 lasted one month as it traveled thousands of miles.
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#120 Postby NetZeroZeus » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:49 pm

Hmm...this doesn't look good for me. It looks like we are for sure going to get at least tropical storm force winds here in Puerto Vallarta, and perhaps 50KT winds, which won't be good for power lines I imagine.
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