NW Pacific: Typhoon Shanshan (0613)

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#21 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:13 am

SMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 18.7N 133.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 20.0N 131.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 130600UTC 20.7N 128.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 140600UTC 20.8N 126.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
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#22 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:57 am

Down 25hPa in 27 hours. Close to TY strength already.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 19.0N 133.0E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 20.2N 131.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 131200UTC 21.1N 129.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 141200UTC 21.5N 127.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =
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#23 Postby alan1961 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:37 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Anybody got close up satellite images of Shanshan besides the NRL images? I'm going to try to avoid depending on the Floaters again. :roll:


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Is that close enough wxmann? :wink:
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#24 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:28 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 19.3N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 20.5N 130.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 131800UTC 21.2N 128.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 141800UTC 22.3N 126.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
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#25 Postby bostonseminole » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:58 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 19.4N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM

FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 20.5N 130.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 131800UTC 21.2N 128.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 141800UTC 22.3N 126.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT


Abbreviations used in the RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory
PSTN : Center position
MOVE : Movement direction and speed
PRES : Central Pressure
MXWD : Maximum wind speed(10min. average)
iiHF : ii-hour Forecast
Analysis Archive

Notes on RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Unit conversions
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km top of this page
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#26 Postby bostonseminole » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:00 pm

KMA Model shows southern JP hit,
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#27 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:22 pm

We have a powerful typhoon brewing currently. Classic pin-hole eye with black color on AVN trying to wrap around the eye. I'd say 105-110 knots now.
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#28 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:52 am

Well, this is usually the time when super typhoons brew.
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#29 Postby mike815 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:53 am

REALLY? :eek:
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#30 Postby AussieMark » Tue Sep 12, 2006 1:11 am

seems to be especially in less active seasons i.e

1998
Zeb (09-17 OCT)
Babs (14-26 OCT)

1999
Bart (17-24 SEP)
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#31 Postby P.K. » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:05 am

85kts, 945hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.7N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 20.3N 129.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 140600UTC 20.8N 127.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 150600UTC 22.1N 125.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
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#32 Postby WindRunner » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:25 am

SSD estimate, lagging behind the JMA in terms of intensity:

WWPN20 KNES 120925
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
SEPT 12 2006 0833Z
.
19.9N 131.3E T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS SHANSHAN (14W)
.
PAST POSITIONS....19.5N 132.2E 11/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
18.7N 133.3E 10/0833Z IRNIGHT

.
REMARKS....SHANSHAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL CLOUD FILLED EYE
APPROXIMATELY 15 KM IN DIAMTER. EYE TEMPERATURE IS MG WITH
SURROUNDING WHITE GRAY SHADE FOR DT=5.5. MET AND PT=5.0. FT=5.0
BASED ON MET AND PT BUT WITH DT=5.5 IN CONSECUTIVE
CLASSIFICATIONS FEEL THAT IT IS A STRONG 5.0..APPROACHING 5.5 AT
THIS TIME.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 12/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
RUMINSKI


CIMSS is running even lower, with CI about 5.1 because it isn't placing the center in the eye when evaluating :roll: Either way, looks poised to become a SS Cat 3 here shortly.
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#33 Postby WindRunner » Tue Sep 12, 2006 10:00 pm

Still running at 85kts/945hPa, though expected to intensify over the next 24h.
Track recurving it east of Taiwan by 72h.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 20.1N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 20.4N 126.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 150000UTC 21.3N 125.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 160000UTC 23.2N 124.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT

Image
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#34 Postby bostonseminole » Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:43 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 20.2N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 140NM

FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 20.4N 126.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 150000UTC 21.3N 125.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
69HF 160000UTC 23.2N 124.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
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#35 Postby WindRunner » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:33 am

Down to 80kts/955hPa, though expected to restrengthen to 85kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 20.2N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 20.3N 124.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 150600UTC 22.3N 123.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 160600UTC 25.2N 124.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
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#36 Postby CentralFlGal » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:23 am

Brief (very brief) history:

Typhoon Shanshan formed on September 10, 2006, in the western Pacific well off the coast of the Philippine Islands. Over the course of the next 36 hours, it grew from a tropical depression to a typhoon. As of September 11, it was projected to travel northwesterly towards China, but veer off well before reaching the Asian mainland. Instead, the storm was predicted to turn towards the northeast to run parallel to the southern islands of the Japan. It was not predicted to come ashore or strike any major urban centers.

This photo-like image was acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite on September 11, 2006, at 2:50 p.m. local time (05:50 UTC). Shanshan at the time of this image was a large spiral swirl still in the early stages of becoming a powerful organized storm. As the Aqua satellite passed overhead, it was still a tropical storm hours from reaching typhoon status. Shanshan had sustained winds of around 110 kilometers per hour (70 miles per hour) at the time this satellite image was acquired, according to the University of Hawaii’s Tropical Storm information center.

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team.

Source:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=13852
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#37 Postby WindRunner » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:00 pm

Holding steady intensity-wise, though track at 72h points at or close to a hit on the southern home islands.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 20.4N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 21.8N 124.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 151800UTC 25.2N 124.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 161800UTC 29.1N 128.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
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#38 Postby P.K. » Thu Sep 14, 2006 5:10 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 20.3N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 23.4N 123.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 160600UTC 27.1N 125.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 170600UTC 33.2N 130.8E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
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#39 Postby P.K. » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:32 am

Just noticed the synoptic recon was out on this last night.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 20.4N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 23.9N 123.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 161200UTC 28.5N 126.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 171200UTC 33.6N 130.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
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hi

#40 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:05 pm

Here's a radar link, the typhoon is looking much better today
http://www.iiimef.usmc.mil/wx/metoc.htm
You may have to click on radar then pick okinawa radar to view pic.
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