NW Pacific: Typhoon Shanshan (0613)

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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:31 pm

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#42 Postby WindRunner » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:24 pm

Back at 85kts and forecast to remain at such through 24h+. Forecast currently places it as a minimal typhoon towards the western edge of the Sea of Japan after a close cut between Korea and Japan (cutting closer to Korea as of now). Could create some significant problems in Korea if this track verifies.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 21.6N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 25.7N 123.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 170000UTC 31.3N 127.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 180000UTC 37.0N 132.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
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#43 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:59 pm

6.5t out of sab with a 80 percent round red cdo. Not quite as good as Ioke. But it would not take much. I say 125 knots.
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:22 am

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BEAUTIFUL STORM!!!!!
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#45 Postby NetZeroZeus » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:43 am

Looks like a low end Cat 4 at this time...and this thing is bound to create major problems wherever it hits.
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#46 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:20 am

JTWC is estimating 115kts 1-min and JMA is set to a 10-min 90kts now, and a slower track is indicated through 72h.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 22.6N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 26.2N 124.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 170600UTC 31.4N 128.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 180600UTC 36.3N 131.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

Image

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#47 Postby Dave C » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:33 am

Here's the radar link again for anyone who didn't see it earlier in the thread.
http://www.iiimef.usmc.mil/wx/metoc.htm
enjoy! :D
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#48 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:10 am

Have you got a direct link to the radar? The bit thay says Radar doesn't appear as a link.

RSMC Tokyo up to 100kts. :eek:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 23.1N 123.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 27.0N 125.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 171200UTC 32.7N 129.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 181200UTC 37.4N 132.1E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
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#49 Postby dwsqos2 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:09 pm

As Lane and Helene develop, interesting things are occuring in the Pacific as well; a pressure of 929 mb was observed at Ishigakijima at 2100Z.

METAR ROIG 152100Z 15048G60KT 1500 SHRA SCT006 BKN010 BKN015 27/// Q0929
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#50 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:15 pm

That is the first METAR they have released in 10 hours as far as I can find. That is a rather impressive pressure for a METAR though!
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#51 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:27 pm

And that was with a 48kt sustained wind, gusting to 60kts! Very impressive, though is the world standard for METARs 1-min or 10-min?
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#52 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:34 pm

Depends on where you are I think. Most will be ten minute, USA based ones won't though. This will be a ten minute one.
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#53 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:41 pm

Interesting how close was this to the center of the eye. This looks to be a deep cat4. It needs more red on the west quad...
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#54 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:51 pm

Gotta be a Super Typhoon...or at least close to it...
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#55 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:51 pm

About 17.5km to the ESE based on the 2100 advisory.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 24.4N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 28.2N 126.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
45HF 171800UTC 33.6N 130.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 181800UTC 38.0N 132.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
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#56 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:01 pm

P.K. wrote:Depends on where you are I think. Most will be ten minute, USA based ones won't though. This will be a ten minute one.


Well then that just makes it all the more impressive, as that covnerts to a 55kt 1-min wind with a pressure reading of 929mb. Makes me think even that new, lower 925hPa estimation might still be a touch high.
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#57 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:14 pm

ROIG 152200Z 18049G60KT 0300 +SHRA SCT006 BKN010 BKN015 27/27 Q0933=
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#58 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:54 pm

46m/s is 90kts.

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#59 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:09 pm

ROIG 152300Z 21042G59KT 0300 +SHRA SCT006 BKN010 BKN015 26/26 Q0952=
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:09 pm

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IN THE MIDDLE OF TROUBLE!!!
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